Post on 27-Mar-2015
Regions for economic change
E.C. – Brussels 25-26 Jan 2007
Demography, educational supply
and employment prospects -
The regional dimension in the EU
Géry Coomans
2000-2010 2010-2020
Decennial growth of age group 15-24-7% -10%
INDEX OF REPLACEMENT OF THE WORKING AGE POP. Age group 15-24 as % of age group 55-64
2000 2020121% 77%
Younger cohorts : declining size but better education
Higher education brings
Personal flexicurityhigher wagesimproved living conditions
Global larger labour supplyhigher productivity growth
high added value srategiesbetter State funding and better governance
EU15 - 1996-2003 USA - 1992-2002
Source: Eurostat LFS BLS
Annual growth of employment per educational level*
-3,3
2,02,9
1,4
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
LowM
ed.
High
Tota
l
2,2
3,2
1,4-0,6 0,0
-1
0
1
2
3
4
<HS
HS-SCnd
<Bach
Coll-G
rad
Tota
l
Demand for labour massively concentrates on tertiary educated
Croissance annuelle de l'emploi par niveau éducatif, 1996-2003
France DE UK (1999-2003)
IT ES
-0,4
1,2
4,7
1,5
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
<Bac Bac Sup. Tot
-2,6
0,31,2
0,1
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
<Bac Bac Sup. Tot
-2,2
0,9
3,5
1,1
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
<Bac Bac Sup. Tot
-1,5
4,04,6
1,4
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
<Bac Bac Sup. Tot
1,5
6,17,3
3,9
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
<Bac Bac Sup. Tot
Annual growth of employment per educational attainment –1996-2003)
Share of young adulys
Share of young adults (25-34) with tertiary education
2000 2020
HIGH IMPACT ON FERTILITY
The old relation (more education means less fertility) is being progressively reversed in a majority of Ms.
Female progression
IMPACT ON LABOUR SUPPLY(only Lisbon objective that will be reached by 2010 = female empl. Rate at 60%)
Educational progression
(% of High in 25-34 group less % of High in 55-64 group)
MALES FEMALES+5 pp +15 pp
Potential growth of employment for Low educated (15-64) 2003-2020
Average EU25= 0%
(in case empl. rates were raised to « Nordic levels »)
Due to their lower flexibility, more mismatches.
Coping through restructuring,vocational training and immigration
Projection of age distributionISCO 9 EU15
0
5
10
15
20
15
_1
9
20
_2
4
25
_2
9
30
_3
4
35
_3
9
40
_4
4
45
_4
9
50
_5
4
55
_5
9
60
_6
4
1996 20012011 2021
A fast ageing of lowest occupational positions
EU15( Isco 9 = elementary occupations)
In 2001: 1 in 3 aged 45+
In 2021: 55% aged 45+
Potential growth of employment for High educated (15-64) 2003-2020
i.e. approx.half the 1996-2003 performance
How to fuel the KBS ?
2003-2010 2010-2020
Next decade: tightening supply
Policy implications
Global level:Going beyond block structure life cycle towards lifelong development of competences
Regional level: More steps towards decentralised AND RECURRENT education• Reforming procedures and contents to help reform the
institutional framework• Regional financial incentives• Setting baits for the academic fish (ex. France where local universities massively rush to vocational training since the 2003 reform).