Recent Trends in Sustainable Energy

Development in the United States

Marilyn A. Brown School of Public Policy

Georgia Institute of Technology

National Research Council's Japan-U.S. Workshop on Sustainable Energy Futures

Washington, DC

June 26, 2012

Global Trends: Where the Action Is

• U.S. energy demand is growing

much more slowly than the rest

of the world

• Today we consume almost 25%

of the world’s energy

production; in 2100 the U.S. will

consume less than 10%

U.S.

World

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

/yr

oil w/o ccs natural gas w/o ccscoal w/o ccs biomass w/o ccsnuclear hydrowind solargeothermal

oil

gas

coal

bio

nuc

0

100

200

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

/yr

Source: Brown and Sovacool. 2011. Climate Change and Global Energy Security (MIT Press) 2

Per Capita Energy Use and GDP

(1980-2010)

Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 3

Japan

U.S.

The U.S.: Green Tech – Clean Tech

Economy is Progressing, But Slowly

Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel: 1980-2035 (quadrillion Btu per year)

Projected Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation (Trillion kWh per year)

4

U.S. Energy & Climate Goals

• By 2020, reduce energy-related GHG emissions by 17% (83% by 2050) • By 2035, 80% of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources • By 2020, 20% improvement in the energy efficiency of commercial buildings

relative to 2010 • By 2030, reduce home energy use by 30-50% (compared to 2009 energy

codes for new homes & pre-retrofit for existing homes) • By 2022, improve the energy intensity of U.S. manufacturers by 25% • By 2015, put 1 million electric vehicles on the road • By 2025, require passenger cars and light-duty trucks to average 54.5 miles-

per-gallon • Decrease the price of electricity from solar power 75% by 2020, making it

cost competitive with coal

•How Can these Goals be Achieved?

5

18 Technology Assessments mapped

to Six Strategies

Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review

•Stationary and transport power are increasingly linked by energy, climate, health, and air quality issues and goals

6

Building and Industrial Efficiency: • Data Collection and usage • Integrated systems analyses • Next-gen processes and products

Stationary Power:

Technology Headroom

Grid Modernization: • Communication and data • Management and control • Energy storage

Clean Electricity: • Drive down costs • Coupling between energy and water use • Increase modularity and scalability • Infrastructure compatibility

Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review 7

Energy Efficiency: The Largest Energy

Resource, But More is Needed

Source: Steven Nadel, ACEEE, 2011.

Source: AEO2012 Early Release Overview, EIA.

Energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product and emissions per dollar of gross domestic product, 1980-2035 (index, 2005=1)

8

Cost of Conserved Energy:

Residential and Commercial Electricity

Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009. Real Prospects for Energy Efficiency in the United States (Washington, DC: National Academies Press)

•Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must be invested in order to implement a long-term energy-saving strategy or feature

9

Light Source Efficiency Trends

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Lum

ens/

watt

Incandescent

CFL

LED Cree R&D Best

2006 XLamp® LED

Linear Fluorescent

HID

Current XLamp® LED

• Better LED performance increases energy savings and reduces cost

Source: Cree. December 1, 2009. “LED Lighting Overview” 10

Systems Integration Offers Future Savings

(e.g., Climate Master Launches Trilogy™)

Separate Units: Water Heating and Heating/Cooling

Integrated Unit: Water Heating and Heating/Cooling

• ~ 65% energy savings vs. minimum efficiency (SEER 13) equipment

• ~ 33% savings vs. state-of-the-art two-stage GHP with the super heater

11

Changes in Energy Intensity in

Six Key US Industries

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

Ene

rgy

Inte

nsi

ty (

Tho

usa

nd

Btu

/Co

nst

ant

Mill

20

00

$)

Paper Mfg.

Petroleum and Coal Prod.

Chemical Mfg.

Plastic and Rubber Prod.

Nonmetallic Mineral Mfg.

Primary Metal Prod.

Source: Brown, M. A., Cortes, R., & Cox, M. (2010). Reinventing Industrial Energy Use in a Resource-Constrained World in Fereidoon Sioshansi (ed.) Smart Living in the Coming Age of Scarcity. Maryland Heights, MO: Elsevier Press: Chapter 8. 12

Combined Heat and Power can

improve System Efficiencies by 30%

Traditional System

CHP System

CHP

Power Plant

Boiler

ELECTRICITY

HEAT

45- 49%

75- 80%

Efficiency Efficiency

Source: Brown, M. A., Jackson, R., Cox, M., Cortes, R., Deitchman, B., & Lapsa, M. V. (2011). Making Industry Part of the Climate Solution: Policy Options to Promote Energy Efficiency. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL/TM-2010/78, May.

13

Lots of Opportunities for CHP in Industry:

Proposed CHP Plant in Alloy, WV

14

• Waste heat from silicon manufacturing could generate 60 MW of electricity

Social Benefit-Cost Ratios of Two

CHP Policy Options

Source: Brown, M. A., Baer, P., Cox, M., and Kim, Y. Working Paper. “Evaluating the Risks of Alternative Energy Policies: A Case Study of Industrial Energy Efficiency” Retrieved from http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers/wp68.pdf

15

12.7 13.3

7.3 7.4

5.8

8.1 10.5

10.7

18.2

9.9

6.9

30.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Soci

al B

en

efit

-Co

st R

atio

Principal Policy, 3% Discount Rate

Principal Policy, 7% Discount Rate

Alternative Policy Design, 3% Discount Rate

Alternative Policy Design, 7% Discount Rate

Natural Gas Prices 2 Std Dev Higher

Natural Gas Prices 2 Std Dev Lower

Output

Based

Emissions

Standards

Investment

Tax Credit

for CHP

Nano-info-bio Technologies could

Make Industry much Leaner

Significant improvements are anticipated in:

• Energy-efficient distillation through supercomputing • Novel energy-efficient separations • Super-durable materials for aggressive environments • Molecular-level control of catalytic materials • Self-optimizing sensor systems • Recovery and use of waste heat

Source: Brown, Marilyn. 2005. “Nano-Bio-Info Pathways to Extreme Efficiency,” AAAS Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, February 21, 2005 16

Additions to U.S. Electricity

Generation Capacity, 1985-2035

Source: Annual Energy Outlook, EIA.

The U.S. is predicted to add less than 10 GW of generating capacity(~1% of total) per year over the next 25 years, most of which will be natural gas

17

Location of Projected New Nuclear

Power Reactors

18 Source: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Retrieved from http://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/col/new-reactor-map.html

Nuclear Power Reactors Under Construction:

Southern Company Burke County, GA (Vogtle 3, 4) AP1000

South Carolina Electric & Gas Jenkinsville, SC (Summer 2, 3) AP1000

Tennessee Valley Authority Rhea County, TN (Watts Bar 2)* Gen II PWR

U.S. Electricity Production Costs

1995-2011, In 2011 cents per kilowatt-hour

Source: Ventyx Velocity Suite, Updated: 5/12

Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs

19

Water Consumption for Various

Power Generation Technologies

Source: NREL. 2011. A Review of Operational Water Consumption and Withdrawal Factors for Electricity Generating Technologies.

CSP = Concentrating Solar Power, CCS = Carbon Capture and Storage, PV = Solar Photovoltaic

20

21

“Why should I worry when the grid is

better than 99% reliable?”

2009 U.S. electricity consumption 3,741 Billion kW-h (EIA)

Estimated annual outage costs $ 30 Billion - $ 130 Billion (LBNL report to OE, 2004)

2003 Northeast Blackout

•508 generators tripped

•Cleveland Toronto NYC

• 7 minutes Report on 2003 North American Blackout,

Grid congestion

North American Electric Reliability Council

1996 1998 2000 2002

200

600

1000

1400

1800 Requests for relief from power exchanges

Re

qu

ests

Requests for relieffrom power exchanges

Source: Modified from Williams Parks. 2011. “Plugging America into Clean Energy” Presentation at the National Academy of Sciences, January 31, 2012.

Smart Grid: A Vision for the Future

Source: Brown, M.A., Shan, Z. 2012. “The Emergence of Policies to Promote Sustainable Smart Grids, ” Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology (Robert A. Meyers, ed.), Springer Science+Business media, LLC. 22

50%

10%

15% 5%

20%

2000 MW ± 500 kV

HVDC Converter

Station $280 M

Advanced HVDC

Converter Station $100 M

Technologies:

High Voltage DC Converter Stations

Converter stations are the most expensive part of HVDC and limits the cost-effectiveness of systems to > 300-500 miles

Source: Cross Sound Cable

Power Electronics

Controls; Thermal

Management

Power Converter

DC Breakers Cable Analysis

(insulators; dielectrics)

System / Applications

Estimated contribution towards goals

23

Technologies:

Smart Meters & Displays

• Meter that allows frequent data collection

• Enables alternative pricing

• Can interface with in-home or in-office

displays of online consumption information

• NOT just an automatic meter reader

ZigBee Rate saver

Google Power Meter

Energy Orbs that signal expensive & inexpensive times to use energy

24

Vehicle Efficiency: • Increase internal combustion engine efficiency • Light weighting and aerodynamics

Transport Power:

Technology Headroom

Electrification: • Batteries • Electric motors and power electronics

Alternative hydrocarbon Fuels (for HDVs): • Biofuels • Alternative fossil fuels (only if less carbon than

gasoline/diesel

25 Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review

Impact of plug-in electric range and

charging infrastructure

• The benefit of ubiquitous charging becomes smaller as the all-electric range increases; for most applications, home charging is sufficient. Source: forthcoming EPRI report, “Understanding the Effects and Infrastructure Needs of Plug-In Electric Vehicle (PEV) Charging”

Source: U.S. Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review

•Utility factor is the fraction of vehicle miles that could be driven on electric power without recharging

26

27

U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 1990-2035

• Shale gas is expected to grow in the next several decades, reducing net imports and challenging the development of renewables and energy efficiency

Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2011, EIA.

Manufacturing the Next Generation of

Lean and Green Technologies

• Product line choices are important

– A new generation of fuel cells and batteries for motor vehicles

– Biorefinery innovations for a next generation of biofuels

– New plastics that double as integrated photovoltaic systems

• Corporate sustainability

– Industry is adopting a much broader view of its energy and environmental responsibilities

Source: Delamaide, Darrell. 2011. “Green Trade Wars Heat Up, energybiz, 8(2) pp. 12-14

28

Input/Output Coefficients Confirm the Labor

Intensity of Energy Efficiency Investments

Source: Deitchman, B., Brown, M., & Baer, P. (2011). Green Jobs from Industrial Energy Efficiency. Energy Productivity in Industry: Partners and Opportunities, 2011 American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry. Washington, DC: ACEEE.

$1.09 $1.08 $0.98

$1.10

16.45

5.63

8.43

13.86

86% 94%

72% 75%

Construction and EE Equipment

Electricity Natural Gas All Others

GRP Coefficients Jobs Coefficients Regional Purchase Coefficients

Over 400 U.S. Manufacturing Plants

Serve the Wind Industry Today

Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report, 2009 Manufacturing data updated through November 2010, includes wind-related facilities 30

Recommended Policy Directions to

Promote U.S. Energy Sustainability

• A policy framework is needed that attracts diverse funding sources

• Policies could help motivate businesses to focus more of their resources on green and lean energy systems – preserving jobs in existing industries

• Advancing product innovation can enable next-generation green and clean technologies – creating new jobs in new industries

• Policy making needs to take into account societal cost s & benefits and consumer behavior 31

FOR MORE INFORMATION

Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor Georgia Institute of Technology School of Public Policy DM Smith Building 685 Cherry Street, Room 312 Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 Email: Marilyn.Brown@pubpolicy.gatech.edu Phone: 404-385-0303 Fax: 404-385-0504