Transcript of Real LifeSimulation Risk HighLow Why Use Simulation? Natural next step in the Portfolio Management...
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- Real LifeSimulation Risk HighLow
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- Why Use Simulation? Natural next step in the Portfolio
Management Maturity Model
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- How Simulation Helps Project Selection Organizations Strategy =
Project Selection Strategic Goals (Fruit) What our organization
wants to accomplish. Typically measured by KPIs Projects (Branches)
The work that will be done to yield the desired strategic goals.
Constraints (Roots) The bottom-up support of projects. Short-falls
here result in smaller and more delayed fruit. People Money
Weather, Regulations, Complexity, Etc. Supply Chain Quality
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- Project Which portfolio of projects yields the most value? How
to prioritize projects based on value? How to align the project
timing with organization capacity? Budget FTEs Deadlines (Time)
Scope Project
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- Significant risk results from the Error of Averages What are
some dangers of averages (estimates): Rarely 100% accurate Become
commitments Must guess at buffers etc.
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- The actual future will yield one, specific result, which cant
be known for certain. However, if the future could be repeated many
times, certain outcomes are more likely. Representing this
likelihood is often easier than other estimation techniques (PERT,
Delphi, Planning Poker, Decomposition, etc.)
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- Engineer Tester Designer Engineer Tester Engineer Tester
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- ProjectRepository Add Variability Add Other Risk Add Resources
Add Revenue/Value Modify Projects Impact of Constraints Project
Selection Project Timing Adjust Capacities Optimize
What-ifScenarios Simulation Sandbox
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- Real Life Outcomes Run Simulation Create Scenarios
Project/Server Static Data Current Projects with Unlimited Capacity
(Current Schedules) Current Projects with Current Capacity (RIA
Resource Impact Analysis) Drop or Postpone the Start of Lower
Priority Projects with Current Capacity Current Projects with
Additional Capacity (ROI) Reprioritized Projects with Current
Capacity on Revenue or NPV Current Projects but Outsource a Program
of Work (More $ than People) Current Projects plus Visionary
Additional Projects with/without Additional Capacity Current
Projects using static data for next 3 months but using the best
practice of Simulation on long term projects via Variability (best
case, worst case, most likely). Current Projects with full Risk
Modeling (Variability and Survival)
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- Discrete-Event Simulation in Action
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- MyPC fill out evaluations & win prizes! Fill out session
evaluations by logging into MyPC on your laptop or mobile device.
Evaluation prizes daily! Claim your prize at the Registration Desk
on Level 1. www.msprojectconference.com After the event, over 100
hours of resources; including all of the PPT decks and session
videos will be available.
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