Post on 10-May-2015
description
Re-population R’structure
Revenue Reach
Reshaping
• Average Age
– France 40,4
– Germany 45,3
– Italy 43,2
– Netherlands 41,5
– UK 40,2
• 60+ already 25%
• Limited growth
• Aging population Source: Eurostat 2010
Source: Economist 2013
Re-population
• Number of households is growing by +9% to +13%
• By 2020 40% of the households are consisting of 1
• By 2050 half of all households is a single household
Single Household is the new Normal
2008 2010 2020
– France 34% 34% 37%
– Germany 38% 39% 43%
– Italy 28% 29% 31%
– The Netherlands 36% 37% 40%
– United Kingdom 34% 34% 38% Source: Economist 2013
Re-population
Urbanisation
• Growing big cities, more people, more stores
• Aging & shrinking populations elsewhere
• Urban population
– France 87,8%
– Germany 74,5%
– Italy 69,1%
– Netherlands 84,7%
– UK 80,1%
Source: Eurostat 2010
Source: Economist 2013
Re-population
• New target groups, new approach
• Mass individualisation, self made
• Time pressure, 24/7 economy
Source: vougue.fr
. .
Re-population
• Total Retail sales in Europe seems to be OK
Source: Eurostat, Verdict, National Stat offices and Q&A Research 2013
Revenue
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Retail Development
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland (in CHF)
United Kingdom (in £)
Retail Development
• Total Retail sales in Europe seems to be OK
• What happens if we take inflation into account?
Source: Eurostat, Verdict, National Stat offices and Q&A Research 2013
Revenue
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Retail Development
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland (in CHF)
United Kingdom (in £)
CPI EU 27
Retail Development
• Stagflation seems horror scenario
• Reality in Non Food for 5 - 10 years
Source: Eurostat, Verdict, National Stat offices and Q&A Research 2013
Revenue
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
140,0
150,0
160,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Non Food Retail Development
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland (in CHF)
United Kingdom (in £)
CPI EU 27
Non Food Retail Development
• Unemployment up
• Forecast Growth moderate
• Forecast Retail down
• Price sensitive consumers
• Calculated consumers
• The end of consumertism
Revenue
• The new middle market
• Value retailers
• New business models
• Price is back in marketing mix
Revenue
Everybody is online
– Classic Internet Time: 71 minutes per day +9%
– New Internet Time: 41 minutes per day +46%
Internet-penetration
Source: Spot.nl 2012
Source: Worldbank 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
France
Germany
Netherlands, The
United Kingdom
Belgium
Reach
Instant Internet within reach
– iPad fastest product adaption ever
– iPad is just start of tablet revolution
– WiFi hotspots everywhere
Source: FON 2012
Reach
Source: Morgan Stanley 2012
Mobile internet
– 24% of all e-commerce will be m-comerce by 2016
– 70% of m-commerce will be t-commerce by 2016
– 61% of shoppers would use mobile at POS
Source: eMarketer.com 2013
Source: securedgenetworks.com
Source: eMarketer.com 2013
Source: Sony corp USA 2013
Reach
From “word of mouth” to “word of mouse”
– 1 out of 5 shares store information
– 2 out of 3 reads store information
– 53% makes store selection based on reviews Source: TWA 2012
Source: 540 SEO 2012
Reach
TO
TA
L S
AL
ES
(m
illi
on
s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
50% 48%
47% 45%
42%
38%
Source: Jupiter/Forrester US Online Retail 2007 - 2012
OFFLINE SALES
OFFLINE SALES
INFLUENCED BY
ONLINE
ONLINE SALES
TOTAL ONLINE
IMPACT
Source: Q&A Research 2010
MOA & Infodising
– App’s will replace the browser
– 46% is not able to properly search online
– Infobesitas is the new disease
– Pre-selection is the power of retail
Source: Wired.com 2010
Source: FAZ 2012
Reach
E-commerce
– CAGR from 2010 towards 2015 still double digit
– Physical retailers are picking up in second wave
Source: Forrester 2011
€0
€5.000
€10.000
€15.000
€20.000
€25.000
€30.000
€35.000
€40.000
€45.000
€50.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Online Retailsales & Online Shoppenetration
UK Germany France Netherlands Italy Spain
72%
66%
59%
70% 34% 34%
Reach Online retail sales & online shop penetration (in millions)
• Consumer is Crosschannel
• From TOMA to TOIA
• Fewer visitors, more customers
• SoLoMo: Social, Local, Mobile
Reach
More meters
Source: Verdict, Q&A Research 2013
Reshaping
0,0
50.000,0
100.000,0
150.000,0
200.000,0
250.000,0
300.000,0
350.000,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development shopping square meters (millions) in France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and UK
Grocery retailers Non-Grocery Retailers
More Sales
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development sales index France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and UK
Grocery retailers Non-Grocery retailersSource: Verdict, Q&A Research 2013
Reshaping
Decreasing floor productivity Non Food Retail
Source: Verdict, Q&A Research 2013
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development floorproductivity index France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and UK
CPI EU 27
Grocery retailers
Non-Grocery Retailers
Reshaping
Decreasing floor productivity online impact
Source: Verdict, Q&A Research 2013
90,0
100,0
110,0
120,0
130,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development floorproductivity index France, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland and UK
CPI EU 27
Grocery retailers
Non-Grocery Retailers
Reshaping
• Sales density is tending to go down
• So from Sales per SQM to Customer Value
• Fewer sales square meters, new retail formats
Reshaping
R’structure
• Cross channel
• Rationalisation of
the square meters
• Store as touch point
• Customer value versus Sales per square meter
• From transaction conversion to decision conversion
• Showroom, Click & Collect, Experience
R’structure
• Great customer service
• Demand driven retail
• NPS as indicator for trust
• Customer satisfaction
• Know your customer needs
R’structure
• Customer X-channel
• Customer value
• Customer experience
• Customer service
• Customer satisfaction
R’structure