Post on 18-Aug-2020
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Re-emergence in Russian Pulp and Paper Markets
Timber Committee forecasts and presentation by Prof. Eduard Akim, Saint Petersburg State Technological University, Russian Federation
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (1-2)
• Annual paper and paperboard output climbed by 2.2% in the EU/EFTA subregion in 2003, a record year for European papermakers, while the subregion’s woodpulp output climbed by 2.8%.
• Higher paper and paperboard exports from the EU/EFTA subregion to non-UNECE countries, and a 16% increase in net exports in 2003, propelled expansion of output.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (3-4)
• Paper and paperboard consumption in central and eastern Europe was boosted by stronger regional economic growth in 2003, but the region also experienced a large increase in imports.
• Consumption of paper and paperboard in the Russian Federation increased by 12.1% in 2003, while production increased by 6.2%.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (5-6)
• Although Russian paper and paperboard exports greatly exceed imports in tonnage, the trade balance in product value continued to deteriorate in 2003, with increasing higher valued imports.
• Annual paper and paperboard output in North America receded by 1.2% in 2003, but output climbed in the second half of the year and the first half of 2004.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (7-8)
• With the exception of shipments to China and other countries in Asia, excluding Japan, total Canadian pulp, paper and paperboard product shipments to all major destinations declined.
• Paper and paperboard tariffs were set to disappear by the year 2004 and are at zero according to GATT (Uruguay Round of 1994), but punitive tariffs and an array of non-tariff barriers still exist, sometimes arising from trade disputes with a scope wider than the sector itself.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Highlights of Forest Products Market Analysis 2003-2004 (9)
• Central and eastern European countries’ exports of paper and paperboard grew more than in the other UNECE subregions, boosted by successful preparations for EU accession and investments in capacity by global pulp and paper industries.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
In 2003 and the first half of 2004, Russia continued to experience a stable economic upturn.
The growth in output was as much as 7.0% and gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.3% during 2003.
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Output of pulp, paper and board in the Russian Federation in 2000 – 2003
(thousand metric tons)
Sources: Goscomstat of the Russian Federation; PPB-express, author's data handling
Products1988(89)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2003/2002,
%
2003/1988
(89), % Pulp total: 8331 4960 5272 5568 5752 103.1 69.0
Market pulp 3076 2018 2136 2233 2301 100.4 74.8
Paper and board
8632 5300 5595 5921 6174 105.3 71.5
Paper totalIncluding:
5465 3320 3415 3524 3654 102.9 66.9
Newsprint 1693 1694 1732 1713 1814 105.8 107.1
Offset paper 396 461 465 491 44991.5
113.4
Board total: 3167 1980 2180 2397 2520 109.5 79.5
Corrugated board
1639 1356 1530 1711 1872 112.5 114.2
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Structure of Russian exports of forest-based products
1990 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Round wood, million m3 31,4 20,0 27,6 31,3 31,7 36,5 37,6
Sawn wood, million m3 15,7 4,6 6,4 7,9 7,7 8,9 11,0
In terms of round wood1, million m3 25,1 7,36 10,2 12,6 12,3 14,2 17,6
Market pulp, million metric tons 0,993 1,056 1,373 1,600 1,758 1,885 1,905
Paper and board, million metric tons
2,761 1,767 2,048 2,309 2,353 2,500 2,550
Pulp, paper and paperboard, million metric tons
3,74 2,823 3,421 3,909 4,111 4,385 4,455
In terms of round wood 2, million m3
12,7 9,57 11,6 13,3 13,94 14,87 15,10
Total exports of forest and paper products in terms of round wood, million m3
69,2 36,9 49,4 57,2 58,0 65,6 70,30
Percentage of round wood exports 45% 54% 56% 55% 55% 56% 53%
1 The factor 1,6 is used - source: UN FAO 2The factor 3,39 is used - source: UN FAO
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Exports of market pulp, paper and board from the USSR (1980 − 1990) and from
Russia1993 − 2003), 1000 mtYear Market pulp Paper and board
Output Exports Percentage of exports Output Exports Percentage of exports
1980 2457 821 33.5 8688 1018 11.71983 2840 1012 35.6 9556 1034 10.81986 3233 1105 34.1 10395 1188 11.41987 3371 1088 32.3 10566 1252 11.91990 3255 600 18.4 8325 900 10.81992 2109 856 40.6 5750 1568 27.31993 1682 1077 64.0 4462 1418 31.81994 1328 1028 77.4 3410 1264 37.11995 1736 1362 78.5 4070 1690 41.51996 1267 1095 85.7 3220 1380 42.91997 1193 1008 82.8 3331 1507 45.21998 1311 1056 75.8 3540 1783 50.41999 1725 1350 78.3 4467 2019 45.22000 2000 1635 81.8 5239 2355 45.02001 2136 1753 82.1 5595 2350 42.02002 2233 1866 83.6 5921 2453 41.42003 2301 1905 82.8 6174 2550 41.3
Sources: Goscomstat of the USSR, Goscomstat of the Russian Federation, PPB-express, Moscow, 2004, author's data handling
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Dynamics of trade balance in 2000 −2003 (million US dollars)
Exports Imports Trade balance1st quarter of 2000 217 153 63
2 − 2000 229 170 593 − 2000 237 192 454 − 2000 237 216 211 − 2001 270 234 362 − 2001 273 281 -8 3 − 2001 220 247 - 274 − 2001 278 338 −601 − 2002 235 262 −272 − 2002 254 338 −843 − 2002 228 309 −814 − 2002 170 291 -121
1st quarter of 2003 226 310 -842nd quarter of 2003 249 357 -1083rd quarter of 2003 234 377 -1414th quarter of 2003 255 422 -167
Sources: State Customs Committee, Pulp. Paper. Board Magazine, PPB-express, PPB Exports, PPB Imports, author’s data handling
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Russia’s exports and imports of paper and board, 2000-2003
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000
2001
2002
2003
-
Exports Imports Total Trade Balance
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Russia’s exports of paper and board in 2000−2003 (million US
dollars)
Exports Imports Trade balance
2000 920 731 +189
2001 927 1012 −85
2002 887 1200 −313
2003 967 1465 -498
Sources: State Customs Committee, Pulp. Paper. Board Magazine, PPB-express, PPB Exports, PPB Imports, author’s data handling
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Europe: Paper and paperboard
70 000
75 000
80 000
85 000
90 000
95 000
100 000
105 000
110 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Production Consumption
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Europe: Paper and paperboard
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
55 000
60 000
65 000
70 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Imports Exports
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
North America: Paper and paperboard
80 000
90 000
100 000
110 000
120 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Production Consumption
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
North America: Paper and paperboard
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Imports Exports
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Russian Federation: Paper and paperboard
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Production Consumption
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Russian Federation: Paper and paperboard
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
1000
mt
Imports Exports
UNECE TIMBER COMMITTEE /FAO EUROPEAN FORESTRY COMMISSION
Joint Market Discussions, 5 October 2004
Next Presentation
Market and Forest Effects of Russian Policy Developments
byMr. Andrey Benin, Deputy of State Duma
(Parliament), Russian Federation