Ranking of Energy Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security

Mark Z. Jacobson

Atmosphere/Energy Program

Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Stanford University

Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Estimate High Estimate

CO2e From Current Power Mix due to Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind

Low Estimate High Estimate

Total CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Estimate High Estimate

Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet

Low Estimate High EstimateNuclear Terrorism or War

WindBEV

WindHFCV

CSPBEV

PVBEV

GeoBEV

TidalBEV

WaveBEV

HydroBEV

NuclearBEV

CCSBEV

CornE85

CellE85

Gasoline

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US

Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%

Corn E859.8-17.6% of US

Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2

Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US

Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%

Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33% of total; the rest is buffer

Matching Hourly Summer 2020 Electricity Demand with 100% Renewables (No Change in Hydro)

Total Demand

Geothermal

Wind

Solar

Hydro

World Wind Speeds at 100m

-180 -90 0 18090

0

-90

90

6

2

10

4

8

All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW

Annual wind speed 100 m above topography (m/s) (global: 7.0; land: 6.1; sea: 7.3)

Overall Ranking

Electric PowerRecommended

1. Wind2. CSP3. Geothermal4. Tidal5. PV6. Wave7. Hydroelectricity

Not Recommended

8. Nuclear

9. Coal-CCS

Vehicle PowerRecommended

1. Wind – BEVs

2. Wind – HFCVs3. CSP – BEVs4. Geothermal – BEVs5. Tidal – BEVs6. PV – BEVs7. Wave – BEVs8. Hydro – BEVs

Not Recommended

9. Nuclear – BEVs

10. Coal-CCS – BEVs

11. Corn ethanol

12. Cellulosic ethanol

Cleanest solutions to global warming, air pollution, energy security