Post on 22-Nov-2014
description
The Public Cloud Has Won Web-scale clouds are happening now ...
don’t be left in the cold
Randy Bias @randybiasJun 27th, 2011 @cloudscalingeComm - SFO
Mobile Matters
Mobile Apps Exploding
Sources: Asymco.com, Chetan Sharma, Morgan Stanley
Mobile + Cloud
Two Sides of the Same Coin
ProductionConsumption
Two Sides of the Same Coin
ProductionConsumption
Carriers Know
Mobile
Carrier Advantages
IP backbone
Carrier Advantages
IP backboneWireless network
Carrier Advantages
IP backboneWireless network
CO & DC footprint
Carrier Advantages
IP backboneWireless network
CO & DC footprintMobile/IP CDN
Carrier Advantages
IP backboneWireless network
CO & DC footprintMobile/IP CDN
In-country expertise
Carrier Advantages
IP backboneWireless network
CO & DC footprintMobile/IP CDN
In-country expertiseBilling/micro-payments
Carrier Advantages
Carriers Don’t Know
Cloud
First Gen Carrier Clouds
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
NOT Agile
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
NOT AgileFocus on IT buyer
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
NOT AgileFocus on IT buyer
Virtualization 2.0, not cloud
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
NOT AgileFocus on IT buyer
Virtualization 2.0, not cloudBottom Line Focus
First Gen Carrier Clouds
“Enterprise” not “web-scale”Expensive & Complex
NOT AgileFocus on IT buyer
Virtualization 2.0, not cloudBottom Line Focus
Looking back, not forward
Cloud Value Prop
Bottom line cost savings
Top line revenue generationvs.
Which Value Prop Matters?
Bottom line cost savings
Top line revenue generationvs.
Which Value Prop Matters?
ASP SaaSvs.
Web-scale Clouds
Web-scale Cloud Pioneers
Web-scale vs. Legacy App Focus
vs.
Greenfield & Mobile Apps Legacy Apps
Enterprises use Web-scale Clouds for Greenfield & Mobile Apps
Enterprise Mobile Apps
Estimated IaaS Growth RatesWeb-scale vs. Legacy Cloud
0%
23%
45%
68%
90%88%
20%
Web-scaleLegacy
Source: Cloudscaling market analysis
Bookseller in Top 10 IT services by 2016?
1 IBM $37,3472 HP $34,6783 Fujitsu $26,9354 CSC $16,2815 Accenture $15,5556 Capgemini $11,2557 Hitachi $11,0508 Ericsson $11,0319AWS $10,465
10 NTT Data Corporation $10,425
Source: servicestop100.org - 2010 top 100 IT services businesses by service revenue
Comparing Clouds
Capital Expense (Initial)
Web-scale vs. Legacy Cloud
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$382
$3,216Cost per Sellable ‘VMU’
(m1.small, 1.7GB RAM, 1 vCore)
Web-scaleLegacy
Source: Cloudscaling confidential financial models for IaaS clouds
Operational Expense (Labor)
Web-scale (1500:1) vs. Legacy (300:1)
$0M
$38M
$75M
$113M
$150M
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Servers : IT Headcount
Source: Cloudscaling estimates of VM:admin based on known IaaS deployments
Web-scale Legacy
Legacy 5-yr TCO is 3-5x more than Web-scale ...
... doesn’t provide 3-5x value for greenfield or
mobile apps
Legacy Clouds Reduce TAM
In-country Enterprises
Long Tail of Customers
In-country
App Developers
Enterprise
SMB
Global
Legacy Clouds Reduce TAM
In-country Enterprises
Long Tail of Customers
In-country
App Developers
Enterprise
SMB
Global$$$$$
$
Mobile Apps on Clouds
250M+ Users, 25M DAUPublic AWS for launch, dev, scaling, & testPrivate web-scale “Z-Cloud” for base
Studio Model
Studio Model
No way to predict winners
Studio Model
No way to predict winnersBuild 10: 3 win, 3 fail, and 4 languish
Studio Model
No way to predict winnersBuild 10: 3 win, 3 fail, and 4 languishModel: Launch,Measure,Triage
Studio Model
No way to predict winnersBuild 10: 3 win, 3 fail, and 4 languishModel: Launch,Measure,TriageOptimize costs before, during, & after
Own the Base, Rent the Spike
App Workload
1
Launch & Measure Traffic
Sources: Graphics from Everest Group, Inc.
2
Own the Base, Rent the Spike
App Workload
Move Base to Z-Cloud
Sources: Graphics from Everest Group, Inc.
3
Own the Base, Rent the Spike
App Workload
Keep Spikes on AWS
Sources: Graphics from Everest Group, Inc.
4
Own the Base, Rent the Spike
PROFIT!Sources: Graphics from Everest Group, Inc.
Take Aways
Take Aways
Studio model drives cloud choice
Take Aways
Studio model drives cloud choiceCost matters & web-scale delivers
Take Aways
Studio model drives cloud choiceCost matters & web-scale delivers“Hybrid” works when clouds interop
Why Did Carriers Miss?
“It’s not our target market”
“It’s not our target market”
Except that, enterprises:
“It’s not our target market”
Except that, enterprises:
Use web-scale clouds
“It’s not our target market”
Except that, enterprises:
Use web-scale cloudsMake mobile apps
“It’s not our target market”
Except that, enterprises:
Use web-scale cloudsMake mobile appsHost app back-ends on AWS
“The market isn’t big enough”
“The market isn’t big enough”
Except that:
“The market isn’t big enough”
Except that:
AWS will be 1B in rev in 2011
“The market isn’t big enough”
Except that:
AWS will be 1B in rev in 2011> all global ‘legacy cloud’
“The market isn’t big enough”
Except that:
AWS will be 1B in rev in 2011> all global ‘legacy cloud’100% CAGR
“The market isn’t big enough”
Except that:
AWS will be 1B in rev in 2011> all global ‘legacy cloud’100% CAGR
Carriers trying web-scale now
Bottom Line
Bottom Line
Massive Disruption
Bottom Line
Massive DisruptionLegacy cloud biz model is stillborn
Bottom Line
Massive DisruptionLegacy cloud biz model is stillbornCarriers have inherent advantages
Bottom Line
Massive DisruptionLegacy cloud biz model is stillbornCarriers have inherent advantagesWeb-scale + Carrier advantage = Win!
Bottom Line
Massive DisruptionLegacy cloud biz model is stillbornCarriers have inherent advantagesWeb-scale + Carrier advantage = Win!Carpe Diem