Racial & Ethnic Politics

Semester Project Guide

Accessing Project FilesAll project files can be found on the class

website.• www.lmu.edu/csla• Click on “Classes” link on left panel• Use LMU login

Purpose of Project

Does ethnicity, race and gender play a part in how Angelenos vote?

How?

MethodologyResearch Design

SamplingData CollectionData ProcessingData Analysis

Research Design & Sampling

This Semester Project+

2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data Collection & Processing

November 6, 2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data AnalysisWhat:

2008, 2010, and 2012 Exit Poll Questions &

Demographic CategoriesHow:

Project, Presentations, & Final Paper

Launchpad for Project• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender

play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President Obama in 2008, 2010, and in 2012?

• If so, how?

In a Nutshell• Look at past exit poll data• Perform trend analysis in your

team and on your own• Make a prediction about 2012

election• Participate in exit poll• Assess your 2012 prediction• Present in a group about how LA

votes

Easy Like Sunday Morning.

*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with

The Commodores.

In Depth Project Overview

1. Select Teams2. Choose Variables3. Create Task List4. Create Annotated Bibliography5. Visually Represent Poll Data6. Make a Prediction7. Collect 2012 Poll Data8. Assess Prediction9. Outline Presentation10. Present with Your Team

Teams• African American• Asian American• Latino• White• Gender

Scope of Data AvailableSince 2012 poll data hasn’t been collected yet, you will be analyzing the following data before the November 6 election:• 2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll• 2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit

Poll

Dependent Variable• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender

play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President Obama in 2008 and 2010?

• In other words, did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010–Ethnic group or Gender = x–President Obama or Governor Brown

= y

Independent VariablesUsing 2008, 2010, and 2012 data each team will look at :• Ethnicity or Gender• Income• Education • Individual Demographic Variable• Individual Voter Opinion Variable

Variables Explored in Teams

Ethnicity or

GenderIncome Education

You will explore the following independent variables for 2008 and

2010 in your presentation teams

Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these

variables?

Team Variables• Ethnicity or Gender–Cumulative opinion of group

• Income–Group opinion based on income

• Education–Group opinion based on education

Variables Explored Individually

Voter Opinion Variable

Demographic Variable

You will explore the following independent

variables individually for 2008 and 2010.

Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these

variables?

Individual Variables• Demographic Variable–Additional demographic variable, e.g.

political party, age, religion, etc.• Voter Opinion Variable–Specific opinion question from survey, i.e. whom or what they voted for or against, e.g. other candidates, propositions, and measures

Data Analysis Requirements

You will create crosstabs with your team and individual variables. • 3 team crosstabs per year = 6

crosstabs• 2 individual crosstabs per year = 4

crosstabs• As a group = 20 crosstabs total

<30K 30-50K 50-70K 70-90K 100K+

29.6% 35.4% 33.6% 43.5% 41.6%

12.3% 15.0% 17.5% 10.4% 18.6%

53.6% 43.2% 43.0% 41.6% 34.4%

4.5% 6.4% 6.0% 4.4% 5.4%

Name: Berto Solis

Theme: Quality of Life

Demographic: Income

Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los Angeles are going in the right direction or the wrong

direction?

<INSERT CHART HERE>

Survey Year: 1997

Sample Size: 650

100.0%

Source:Guerra, Fernando; Marks, Mara. (1997). 1997 Los Angeles Riots 5th Anniversary Resident Follow Up Survey Report: Final Topline Results. Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los

Angeles, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles California.

Right Direction

Staying the Same

Wrong Direction

DK/NA

Total

31.9%

14.8%

47.8%

5.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

<30K 30-50K 50-70K 70-90K 100K+

PER

CEN

TA

GE

INCOME

Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los Angeles are going in the right direction or

the wrong direction?

Right Direction

Staying the Same

Wrong Direction

DK/NA

Crosstabs

Visualized Data

Create a Task ListDivide and conquer this project. Due next week: using the semester project guide and this presentation, draft a task list organized by:• Deadlines• Scheduling meeting times with

team• Scheduling meeting times with me

Annotated BibliographyBibliographical data with a short description of the content. At least 9 references:• 3 team references, corresponding

to team variables• 6 individual references– 2 for demographic variable for 2008-2010– 2 for 2008 public opinion variable– 2 for 2010 public opinion variable

Visualizing Exit Poll Data2008 and 2010 data will be available next week, in SPSS format. In the meantime, research your team and individual variables and work on your annotated bibliography.

Here’s an intro to SPSS and why you’ll have to schedule a time to meet with me after next week to work on visualizations.

SPSS“Statistical Package for the Social

Sciences”• Acronym obsolete, just “SPSS”

now• Powerful data analysis tool• Will generate crosstabs from

large datasets

SPSS Crosstabs

How to Make Crosstabs with SPSS

Making a Prediction

Using annotated bibliography data and visualizations, make a prediction about the 2012 election.

In Other Words…• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender

play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against President Obama in 2012?

• If so, how?

November 6, 2012 Presidential Election

Exit Poll!

Assess Your Prediction• Was your prediction accurate?• What external factors influenced

the election?

Group Presentation Outline

• One introductory slide• Three group slides corresponding to the

three group variables• Ten slides, two per individually chosen

demographic and exit poll question variable

• One conclusion slide• GREATEST HITS ONLY 

Group PresentationsBased on your joint research, provide a detailed, succinct, and brief overview of the ethnic vote in Los Angeles in 2012, using the above outline as a guide and limited to 15 slides.

Easy Like Sunday Morning.

*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with

The Commodores.

Questions

berto.solis@lmu.edu310-338-4565Office Hours:

Thursdays 1-5pmUH 4119

@LMU_CSLA