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http://edition.cnn.com/2008/HEALTH/conditions/04/03/brazil.dengu

e/index.html#cnnSTCVideo

Kort

film?

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om

tröskeleffekt

Land use change (deforestation, urban sprawl) ‏Rapid urbanization

Infrastructural development (esp. irrigation systems, creation of new urban ”habitats”)

Eroded health infrastructure in the 1980s and 1990s

”Quick fix” solutions create more resistant vectors

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Dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2007-2008

1. Fast evolving surprise with the ability to create a crisis that cascades across system boundaries, and spatial scales

2. Complex and multilevel underlying drivers

3. Recombination potential with additional stresses, such as poverty, eroded health infrastructure creates

A New Generation of Ecological Crisis?

Avian flu (H5N1)‏

“Wheat rust” Ug99

Food crisis/agflation

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No repeated global assessment of ecosystem change (c.f. IPCC)

Fragmented social, economical and ecological data – trends impossible, geographic gaps.

Economic evaluation of ES

Global change in the political landscape

Decentralization”One of the most important global policy experiments””Increased problem solving capacity””Decentralization can lead to more efficient governance, better link to local context” -> higher capacity to deal with complex problems Forest co-management, water management, ecosystem management, development

Public-Private Partnerships

– formalized collaboration between state actors and private/non-state actorsExpectation: more flexible and efficient way to reach political aims.Not privatization – not state controlled

Water, health, biodiversity conservation, etc.

Non-Governmental Organizations

Increased number and participation of NGOs, ”think-tanks”, epistemic communities at all political levels.

Biodiversity, climate policy, fisheries policy, m.m.

International agreements

Increased influence of multilateral agreements on national policy

e.g. Kyoto-protocol, EU:s Framework Directives, Convention on Biological Diversity, World Trade Organization, etc

1960: 20 , 1990: 140, 2005: more than 700

Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry)

Regional or local state authorities

Local natural resource users

Decision- making

Implementation and mo

Behavioral response

Centralized decision- making

Decision-making, implementation, Monitoring, partnerships

Central policy-maker (e.g. environmental ministry)

Regional or local state authorities

Local natural resource users

Decision- making, implementatio n, negotiations, partnershipsImplementation, monitonegotiations, partners

International norms, agreements

Decentraliz ation

Non-state actors

Decision-making in complex governance systems

Institutions, organizations or networks?

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WHO

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Institutions, organizations or networks?

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WHO

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Bill and Melinda Gates

Foundation

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Private Business

Global Environmental Change + Global ”Governance” Change

Are they compatible? How does this affect our capacity to deal with complex, non-linear, multilevel

social-ecological systems?

What do YOU think?

High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.

”Good Governance” according to the World Bank:

Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of

Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule

of Law, and Control of Corruption.

High Medium Low Very Low No data/n.a.

Does ”good governance” matter for protecting vital

ecosystems?

Forest Cover Change

Biodiversity (bird population)

High levels of corruption

Low levels of corruption

Temporal misfits

The Sahel region 1950s-60s

”Roving Bandits” F. Berkes et. al. 2006

Cod stock collapse, Newfoundland, (Canada)Thresholds misfit

Methane outburst

Biostability/ collapse Amazonian region

Speed of change

Fast

Slow

Uncerta inty

Lo w

Hi gh

Spati al

distrLimite d

Very large

Major governance puzzles - institutional diversity

Enhances our capacity to deal with with uncertainty and change. Elinor Ostrom: no ”blue-prints” for ecosystem management. Folke: helps us recover and innovate. ”Portfolio of

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Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. AInst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. AInst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. AInst. A

Disturbance

Social, technical, economical, environmental change

Collapse

Inst. B

Inst. A

Inst. A

Inst. C

Inst. E

Inst. D

Inst. B

Inst. F

Inst. EInst. F

Inst. C

Inst. G

Inst. C

Inst. A

Inst. 0

Inst. A

UK and the ”Mad cow disease” (BSE),1996

- surprise, decision-making under severe time stress and high scientific and

social uncertainty- Lack of central

coordination, communication between key decision makers, and to

the public, poor.

Margaret Thatchers fault!

Gerodimos (2004). Public Adm. 82(4).

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Financial crisis -rapid global coordination, adaptive strategies, huge investments despite cascading events and high uncertainty

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Financial Crisis vs Earth System Crisis

1) Earlier and similar economic crises provide a number of “lessons learned”

2) Key decision-makers and central institutions promptly identified

3) Fi i l t d idl d ith

Major governance puzzles – centralization vs decentralizationDecentralized systems

+ possibility to innovate in the face of surprises, early warning, and prompt response-can be overwelmed by disturbance, fail to coordinate with other ”small” units

Centralized systems+ have overview, track long term changes, compensate for maladaptive lower units- too far away to detect early warnings, and innovate. Information

Information overload

The SARS crises

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Too Good to be True?

“High Reliability

Organizations” - organizations

with the capacity to

cope with both incremental change and catastrophic

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Capacity to collect and analyze very large amounts of information, detect early warning signals, and facilitate fast coordination of large number of actors.

Decision-making dependent on the type of change in environment.

High capacity for learning after crises, strong incentives to report and take initiatives to repair

Is it possible? Governing Epidemics

Bild epidemics

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Bubonic Plage, Surat (India)1994In 1994 the spread of

bubonic plague in the city of Surat deaths of 57 people, significant economic losses, and social and political effects. Over 300,000 people deserted the city (in two days!)

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How small innovations and perceived crisis makes a

global difference!

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WHOCountry A

Country B

- Collaboration between over 120 actors (governments, ministries, laboratories, NGO’s)

- prompt coordination to secure fast response

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Global Outbreak Alert and Response N

Pre-crises phase

Warning Confirmation phase

Warning Response phase

We are far away from such a system…WHO/GOARN

Early warnings: builds on both ”formal” and ”informal data” (GPHIN, ProMed). 1,1 million Euro/Yr

Response: Prompt in collaboration with WHO, regional offices, NGO’s, health ministries, technical labs.

Tools: coordinating arenas, adhoc groups, secure webpages, teleconferences.

UNEP Division for Early Warning and Assement

Early warnings: builds on both formal data only. Acknowledged bias and lack of data. 77,5 million Euro/yr

Response: Recommendations to governments -> slow or non-existing

No repeated global assessment of ecosystem change (c.f. IPCC)

Fragmented social, economical and ecological data – trends impossible, geographic gaps.

Economic evaluation of ES

incl. GEO-4, 'tipping points'

Is there any hope?

Yes!

International Panel for Ecosystem Services

(IPES)?

Both incremental change

and

abrupt surprising change

including cascading

dynamics

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Eco ”tipping points”change at the tipping point sets in motion mutuallyinforcing feedback loops that propel the system on

a completely new course.

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• Innovation research tends to focus on innovations in business and technical systems

• Can they be applied for SES innovations?

• Institutional context? Policy interventions?

• Global orchestration?

Governance for innovation

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• Solutions at the interface - technology, ecology and social sphere

• Positive ”tipping points” - escalating improvements, not only crises.

• Quality of Governance - include dynamics of SES.

• Information technology could have revolutionary impact on governance.

• Building on past successes - HRO,

Summing up

Thank you!

victor.galaz@stockholmresilience.su .se

1.Vilket svenskt politiskt parti hamnar närmast tankesättet att komplexa system kräver diversitet, ständig anpassning och lärande? Varför? Varför inte?

2.Är det önskvärt att formulera ekosystemkriser som en säkerhetsfråga, dvs som en politisk fråga som ska behandlas med samma dignitet och strukturer som exempelvis internationell terrorism och

Adaptive co-management

Adaptive co-management; a combinatipromotes multilevel institutional lishared responsibility between a diveactors, combination of knowledge so

as well as learning.

(Olsson et. al. 2004, Berkes et. al

Example: Kristianstad (SE), Krüger Park (SA), Bali water temples (Indonesia), Tiszra

(Central Europe),…

Network based governance relies heavily on social coordination

and control, collective sanctions and reputations ->

requires repeated interactions, restricting the numbers of actors in networks, often geographical proximity.

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Fish and Ebola virus

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Fish stock decrea

se

Increa sed bushme at huntin

g

Coral reef

Agro- ecosyst

ems

Climat e

change

1. Weak signals bring about strong action

2. Decision-making dependent on type of change.

3. High investment in learning after “near-misses” and crises

Global Environmental Governance after Kyoto

Think about the political challenges…

”Early response” coordinators- legal frameworks that allow actors to act (e.g. International Health Regulations)

- unhindered information flows between a diversity of actors, from local to global.

- informal, personal contacts and trust, and ”low-tech” interactions.

Not just theory…

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