Post on 16-Aug-2020
Quarterly report on the global and the
Spanish economy Q1 2016
Círculo de Empresarios Madrid, April 2016
2
ENTORNO GLOBAL
2016 GDP projections
3 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, April 2016
2.4%
EMU
1.5%
-3.8%
2.4%
US
-1% 0.6%
0.5%
6.5% China
India
7,5%
4.9%
Russ
ia
-1.8%
1.9%
Nig
eria
2.3%
Global GDP
2015 2016
3.2 3.4
Obstacles to growth
4
1
2
3
4
5
China’s economic development
Emerging economies adjustment, mainly of low-income commodity exporters
European political and social scene: Brexit, refugee crisis…
Global geopolitical risks
Financial markets volatility
Slower economic growth
5
Growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace Gradual recovery in advanced economies and uncertainty in emerging markets Slowdown in China and robust growth in India
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP growth rate in BRICS%
China India Brazil Russia South Africa
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, April 2016
3,3 3,4 3,1
4,14,6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2013 2014 2015 2016* 2017*
Real GDP growth%
Emerging Advanced Global
* ProjectionSource: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, April 2016
Global trade slowdown
During 2015, global trade growth has slowed notably relative to GDP growth
Source: IMF, April 2016
Trade and Output growth Annual change
The slowdown has been more pronounced in emerging markets
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
World trade (goods)Quarterly change, % Volume trade World trade average1997-2007
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ECB, 2016
0
2
4
6
8
1980-2012 2013-15 1980-2012 2013-15
Advanced Emerging
Volume trade Real GDP
6
Weakness in global economic activity
* Indicator that provides an advance signal of waht is happening in the private sector (output, new orders, employment...)
Indicators such as PMI or industrial production showed a decline in economic activity
Below 50 signals an economic activity deterioration
Probability of recession
Source: IMF, April 2016
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4
Industrial productionQuarterly change
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on CPB, 2016
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
US Eurozone Japan Emerging Asia Latin America Rest of the world
Probability of recession Previous projection
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
2014 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 Jan.16 Feb.16
PMI composite*
Global US uk
Source: Markit, 2016
7
Emerging: Asia leads global growth
8
-0.47%
-0.11%
Emerging Asia: • GDP growth-(5,7% vs 5,9%)
• In 2015, 30% of global GDP and 60% of annual GDP growth
• The most important contribution to the region came from India and Southeast Asia
46,1 47,2 48,4 49,8 51,1 52,7 53,7 54,7 55,6 56,5 57,1 57,6 58,1 58,7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP share of emerging marketsBased on purchasing -power-parity (PPP)
Emerging Asia Latin America Total emerging GDP share
Emerging economies: 57,6%Advanced economies: 42,42%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2016
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0
On impact 1 year 2 years
Emerging excluding BRICS
Global
Impact of a 1 percentage point decline in BRICS on growth
Source: World Bank, 2016
China’s transition to a new growth model
9
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2016
6.9 6.5
1,8
2015 2016
3,1
Real GDP Annual change, %
Slowdown in aggregate economic activity
Robust growth in the services sector (90% of GDP growth)
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Reuters, 2016
Slightly stronger exports in March External sector Annual change
2017
6.2 50.5 40.5 9
Services Industry Primary
GDP by sectors %
6.9
Construction
Impact of a 1 percentage point decline in China’s growth other emerging economies growth
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on KPMG, 2016
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2014 1Q-2015 2Q-2015 Jul.15 Aug.15 Sep.15 Oct.15 Nov.15 Dic.15 Jan.16 Feb.16 Mar.16
Exports Imports
-1,2
-1
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0Commodities exporters Commodites importers
China: foreign reserves and exchange rate
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on SAFE, 2016 * Projection
China’s foreign reserves declined in order to stabilize the yuan
10
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Investing and Reuters ,2016
3,0
3,2
3,4
3,6
3,8
4,0
4,2
may
.-14
jun.
-14
jul.-
14
ago.
-14
sep.
-14
oct.-
14
nov.
-14
dic.
-14
ene.
-15
feb.
-15
mar
.-15
abr.-
15
may
.-15
jun.
-15
jul.-
15
ago.
-15
sep.
-15
oct.-
15
nov.
-15
dic.
-15
ene.
-16
feb.
-16
mar
.-16
Currency reserves Trillion $
Yuan exchange rate
-770 billion $ since May-14
2015 2016
In 2016, the chinese yuan remained broadly stable
37 % of GDP
28 % of GDP*
6,1
6,3
6,5
6,7
6,9
7,1
7,3
7,5
7,7
Yuan-dollar Yuan- euro
China: financial system
11 * In February 2016, policy makers injected 340 billion yuan in the financial system Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, Investing and Reuters, 2016
China equity markets
The second largest equity market in the world moderate its bearish bets although recent cash injections*
1Q 2016: Shanghai Composite: -9%
Hang Seng: -3%
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
5.000
5.500
17.000
19.000
21.000
23.000
25.000
27.000
29.000
31.000
Hang Seng (left axis)
Shanghai Composite (right axis)
India: resilience to resist global growth
12 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, Bloomberg and KPMG, 2016
GDP 2016 projections % 7,3 7,8 7,9
2015 2016 2017 Growth in India remained strong Economic growth was mostly driven by domestic demand
5% 7,1%
Unemployment rate
Share of global GDP Primary: 16%
Secondary: 23% Tertiary: 61%
GDP by sectors
7,1%
Inflation rate
7,8
6,7 6,7
5,8 5,5 5,34,6
3,9 3,9 3,8 3,5 3,3 3
Japan: 2016 projections
13
1,8
* Japan external debt accounts 10% of total government debt **In global terms, 5.5 trillion $ in government bonds have negative yields, covering 23% of global GDP Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF and Bloomberg, 2016
In January, the Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rates** in order to stimulate the domestic demand
Far away from its 2% target and facing deflationary pressures from China
GDP + 0,5%
Interest rate - 0,1%
Inflation -0,2%
Unemployment 3,3%
Public debt* 250%
Growth in Japan fell to 0.6% in 2015 + 80 pp since 2007
Lowest level since 1995
Latin America: growth heterogeneity
* Forecast * *Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico
Pacific Alliance countries are expected to keep growth in the region against Mercosur countries Higher macroeconomic imbalances
*
Venezuela 2015: -8% 2014: -5,7% Source: IMF, April 2016
$ appreciation
Income losses
Weaker exports
Inflation
Venezuela 2015: 121,7% 2014: 481,5 Source: IMF, April 2016
0,9
-0,5-0,9
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
ARG BRA CHI COL PER MEX Mercosur Pacific Alliance
Latin America
Real GDP growthAnnual change
2014 2015 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2016
0
10
20
30
40
ARG BRA CHI COL MEX PER
InflationAnnual change
2015 2016
Source: BBVA Research, 2016
*
*
*
* Forecast
14
Downturn in Brazil has intesified
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research and World Bank, 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Investing, 2016
Output contraction mostly driven by private consumption and investment Political tensions and a low approval government rating (10%)
Inflation rate towards the 4,5% target
GDP and components %
2/3 of GDP
6,4
10,7
6,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014 2015 2016
Since April 2015, depreciation higher than 12%
% Equity markets
Inflation rate
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
GDP Investment Private consumption Exports Imports
2015 2016 2017
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
01.01.2014 23.04.2014 13.08.2014 03.12.2014 25.03.2015 15.07.2015 04.11.2015 24.02.2016
Exchange rate (USD-BRL) 10 years yield
* *
* Forecast
15
US: economic growth and labour market
16
Moderate growth in 4Q-15 (1.4%) against a 2.2% average in the first three quarters of the year Dollar appreciation reduced the external sector contribution to economic growth Job growth remained dynamic while labour force participation improved over the past few months
GDP and components %
Recession probabilities intensified in a 25% for the next 12 months
Labor market
Source: Círculo de Empresarios basesd on BLS, St Louis Fed, 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BEA, 2016
Long term unemployment: 27,6%
Thousands
%
-0,9
4,6 4,3
2,1
0,6
3,92
1,4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1Q-2014 2Q-2014 3Q-2014 4Q-2014 1Q-2015 2Q-2015 3Q-2015 4Q-2015
Private consumption Investment GDP
5,7
5,5 5,55,4
5,5
5,3 5,3
5,1 5,15,0 5,0 5,0
4,9 4,95,0
4,2
4,4
4,6
4,8
5,0
5,2
5,4
5,6
5,8
0
100
200
300
400
Job growth (left axis)
Unemployment rate (right axis)
Natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU)
US: FED monetary policy
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revised its policy path to 2 rate hikes in 2016
Positive indicators • Labour market • Inflation • Oil stability
Negative indicators • Uncertainty about US growth • Global growth outlook • Financial markets volatility
Committee members divided on Fed’s rate hike calendar
Interest rate hike survey, April 2016
April June September December
0 %
53,7 %
19,6 %
40,2%
Source: Bloomberg, April 2016
* In order to conclude the year in the interval [0,75%-1%]
*
Future interest rate hikes will depend on...
17
Heterogeneous growth in Europe
7.8 4.1 3.2 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.8
Real GDP growth %
Ireland
Sweden
Spain
UK France
Germany
Italy
Government debt % 99.4% 43.2% 99.2% 88.6% 72% 97% 135%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat and European Commission, 2016
18
Eurozone: macroeconomic indicators
19
Economic recovery supported by domestic demand 1Q 2016: signals of activity moderation due to euro recent appreciation, weaker economic sentiment, emerging markets... Decline in energy prices further dampen inflationary pressures Unemployment rate trended gradually downwards (16.63 million unemployed)
Real GDP and inflation rate %
Unemployment rate by countries %
Eurozone rate of unemployment %
European Commission Forecast
0,5
-4,5
2,11,6
-0,9-0,3
0,91,6 1,7
3,3
0,3
1,6
2,7 2,5
1,3
0,4 0 0,5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP Inflation rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Eurostat and European Commission, 2016
11,6
11,211
10,710,5 10,4 10,3
2014 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 jan.16 feb.16
Euro area: monetary policy revision
20
Monetary policy
Interest cut rate
Deposit facility cut rate
Expand the asset purchase
program
Include investment
grade bonds issued by non
financial companies
+ 4 TLTRO*
ECB’s March new measures
ECB cut its main interest rate to 0% Deposit facility rate cut by 10 bps to -0,40% (-0,30 prev.)
Monthly expansion of the asset purchase program to 80 billion € (60 billion € prev.)
Bonds issued by non financial companies will be included in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on ECB, 2016 * Refinancing operations with a maturity of 4 years
Oil prices
Since March-15 oil prices dropped by more than a 20% Persistent oversupply and weaking oil demand
Iran will increase production to regain market share:
+ 2 mbd
Doha meeting: (17 Apr) : Plan to prop up oil prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Jan.16 Feb.16 Mar.16
Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI)$/bbl
Brent WTI
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on IMF, 2016
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
Q1-2015 Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016
Supply and demand of petroleum and other liquidsMillion barrels per day
Supply Demand
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, 2016
21
US oil production US production Mbd
6%
80%
14%
Crude Oil Production (Contribution to total net increase, 2011-2015) US oil and gas investment % GDP
2004 2014
0.4%
2.1%
+2.8 Tn $
Slightly lower oil production due to falling oil prices
2011- Apr.15 +70%
Signs of a slowdown in shale oil production (4.84 million in May*)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
US
OPEP Russia
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2016 Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on BBVA Research, 2016
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on EIA, 2016
* Forecast
22
Commodity prices
23
Nonfuel commodity prices appear to have stabilized
Impact of commodity prices in global growth Percentage points
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Commodity prices evolution2010=100
Energy Non fuel commodities
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, 2016
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Brent
Natural Gas
Copper
Aluminium
Iron
Nickel
Corn
Commodity prices
2016
2015
*
SOurce: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bloomberg, 2016
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
Japan Eurozone US Colombia Peru China Brazil Russia
* Year to date change Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on World Bank, 2016
Energy sector perfomance
24
Higher likelihood of increasing bankruptcies (42 in US in 2015) if there are further declines in commodity prices
US energy and commodity related sectors represent 17% of the US high yield market
1Q- 2016: Moderate recovery
*Goldman Sachs Commodity Index: Benchmark which measures commodity prices performance SOurcee: Círculo de Empresarios based on S&P, Fitch and Reuters, 2016
*
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Energy sector in the financial markets6 April 2015=100
S&p 500 Energy GSCI
Currency markets
25
Recent depreciation of the dollar
Euro appreciation was driven by a moderate pace of further funds rate in US
Change in exchange rates YTD BREXIT
RISK
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Investing y Bloomberg, 2016
Euro exchange rate to dollar and british pound
%
-30 -10 10 30 50 70
Venezuelan bolivar
Argentine peso
Pound
Mexican peso
Chinese yuan
Swiss franc
Euro
Canadian dollar
Russian ruble
Brazilian real
Japanese yen
0,62
0,64
0,66
0,68
0,7
0,72
0,74
0,76
0,78
0,8
0,82
0,95
1
1,05
1,1
1,15
1,2
1,25
Pound (right axis) Dollar (left axis)
Equity markets
26
Equity markets %
Source: Círculo de empresarios based on Investing and Bloomberg, 2016
In early 2016, losses in equity markets specially for the banking sector
Equity markets January 2015=100
Between December and January, Euro Stoxx banks lost 35% of its capitalization
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
02.01.2015 13.03.2015 26.05.2015 04.08.2015 13.10.2015 22.12.2015 03.03.2016
Eurostoxx 50 Ibex 35 S&P 500
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
Bovespa (Brazil)
Dow Jones (US)
S&P 500 (US)
FTSE 100 (UK)
Nasdaq (US)
CAC 40 (France)
PSI (Portugal)
Dax (Germany)
Ibex 35
Nikkei (Japan)
Shangai Comp. (China)
27
ENTORNO GLOBAL
Boosts to growth
28
1
2 3
4
5
Oil prices
Financial costs
Expansionary effects of economic policies
Improvement in the labour market
Exports to European markets
Forecasts: recovery continues…
29
2016* 2017*
2.7%
2.3%
*Forecasts Source: Bank of Spain, March 2016 IMF, April 2016: GDP growth = 2.6% in 2016
… but at a moderate pace
3.2%
2015
Growth in 2016
30
January 2016: Trend change
The Economic Sentiment Indicator (European Commission) has fallen since January
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2007
M03
2007
M07
2007
M11
2008
M03
2008
M07
2008
M11
2009
M03
2009
M07
2009
M11
2010
M03
2010
M07
2010
M11
2011
M03
2011
M07
2011
M11
2012
M03
2012
M07
2012
M11
2013
M03
2013
M07
2013
M11
2014
M03
2014
M07
2014
M11
2015
M03
2015
M07
2015
M11
2016
M03
Economic Sentiment Indicator, March 2016 EU-28
Eurozone
Spain
Source: European Commission , 2016
Forecasts 2016: composition of growth
31
GDP annual growth in 2016 = 2.7%
• Private consumption = 2,9%
• Public consumption = 1%
• GFCF = 5%
• Exports = 4.4%
• Imports = 5.3%
Domestic demand
0.2 pp 2.9 pp
External demand
contribution to growth
contribution to growth
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2016
GDP growth
32
Despite domestic and global uncertainties, Spain overtakes the eurozone and
the OECD growth
Forecast 1Q 2016 0.7% quarterly change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4
GDP growth%, annual change Eurozone
OECD
Spain
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on OECD 2016
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Feb
-10
Jul-1
0
Dec
-10
Ma
y-11
Oct
-11
Ma
r-12
Aug
-12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
No
v-13
Ap
r-14
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-1
5
Dec
-15
Credit to non-financial corporationsInterannual change
Source: Bank of Spain, 2016
33
Credit to households and corporations 2015
Access to credit improves for households and non-financial corporations, but it is still below the end of 2010 levels
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Feb
-10
Jul-1
0
Dec
-10
Ma
y-11
Oct
-11
Ma
r-12
Aug
-12
Jan-
13
Jun-
13
No
v-13
Ap
r-14
Sep
-14
Feb
-15
Jul-1
5
Dec
-15
Credit to householdsInterannual change
Other loans
Total
Housing loans
Source: Bank of Spain, 2016
%, annual change
%, annual change
34
Labour market
March 2016: ▼ Unemployed= 58,216 vs. February
▲ Affiliates = 138,086 vs. February
▲ Registered contracts = 1,508,881
• 10% permanent • 90% temporary
Total dependent employment:
• 75% permanent • 25% temporary
Unemployment rate in Spain, February 2016= 20.4% of working population vs.
eurozone average = 10.3% (Eurostat).
16,393,866
17,305,798
4,763,680
4,094,770
0
1.000.000
2.000.000
3.000.000
4.000.000
5.000.000
6.000.000
16.000.000
16.500.000
17.000.000
17.500.000
18.000.000
18.500.000
19.000.000
19.500.000
20.000.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Jan.
16
Feb.
16
Mar
. 16
Affi
liate
s
Evolution of affiliation to Social Security and registered unemploymentPersons
Affiliates Unempployed
Unemployed
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministryof Employment and Social Security, March 2016
1,11,00,90,9
-0,8-0,8
-0,3
0,0
-0,3
-0,7
-0,9
-0,4
0,10,1
-0,2
-0,6-0,7
-1,1-1,3
-1,0
-0,4
-0,1-0,2
-0,5-0,3
0,10,2
0,4
-0,10,0
0,2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
CPI%, interannual change Core inflation
General
Source: INE, 2016
35
Prices
1Q 2016 → CPI has ventured further into negative territory and core inflation has kept
its positive trend
Incompliance of the deficit target
36
In 2015, the public deficit exceeded by 0.8 pp the Stability Pact target of -4.2% …
… due to the incompliance of 14 regions and the deficit in Social Security
-2,7 -2,64 -2,52 -2,51
-2,13
-1,67-1,53 -1,52 -1,38 -1,36 -1,33 -1,28
-1,13 -1,13-0,69 -0,57 -0,54
Ca
talo
nia
Extre
med
ura
Mur
cia
Va
lenc
ian
C.
Ara
go
n
Ca
stile
-La
Ma
ncha
Ast
uria
s
Bale
aric
. Isla
nds
Ca
nta
bria
Ma
drid
Ca
stile
and
Leo
n
Na
varra
And
alu
sia
La R
ioja
Basq
ue. C
Ga
licia
Ca
nary
Isla
nds
Deficit, 2015% GDP
Source: Ministry Treasury and Public Administrations, 2016
TARGET
-0.7%
Balance by administration, 2015% GDP
2014 2015 Objetivo 2015 ▲2015/Target 2015
Central -3.67 -2.53 -2.9 0.37Autonomous Communities -1.75 -1.66 -0.7 -0.96Local Corporations 0.57 0.44 0 0.44Social Security -1.04 -1.26 -0.66 -0.6Total - including bank aid -5.89 -5.24Total -5.79 -5 -4.2 -0.81
Source: Treasury, 2016
Debt: high public debt
37
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain, 2016
Since 2007, public debt increased by 180%.
Public and private debt % GDP
Private debt fell by more than 20% since 2009.
EUROZONE Public debt: 94.2% Non-financial corporations debt: 133% Households debt: 61%
35,5 39,4
52,760,1
69,5
85,493,7
99,3 99,2
80,7 81,4 83,4 82,8 81,1
79,775,9 71,9 67
108,8 113 115,5 115,1 111,5105,4
98
90,584,9
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PPAA Households Non-financial corporations
Debt in regional administrations 2015
38
Galicia 18.6%
Debt, 4Q 2015 % regional GDP
Asturias 18%
Cantabria 22%
Basque C. 14.4%
La Rioja 18%
Navarre 18.2%
Aragon 20.5%
Catalonia 35.2%
Valencian C. 41.3%
Murcia 27.4%
Andalusia 21.6%
Balearic Islands 30.2%
Canary Islands 15.7%
Extremadura 20.3%
Castile and Leon 19.5%
Madrid 13.6%
Castile-La Mancha 35.6%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain data, 2016
> 15%
>10%
> 30%
> 20%
Total 24.2% national GDP 24.4% total debt
Social Security
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Employment and Social Securuty, 2016
Social Security Reserve: withdrawals Millions € 2015 Total
withdrawals: 13,250 millions €
1.700
1.363
3.530
410
3.500
1.000 1.000720
5.000
428
5.500
500
8.000
1.300
3.750
7.750
1.750
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
2014 Total withdrawals:
15,300 millions €
2013 Total withdrawals:
11,648 millions €
2012 Total withdrawals:
7,003 millions €
Balance: 32.481
millones €
The Social Security Reserve Fund could run out of resources in 2019 if the withdrawals persist. 39
Exports
40
January 2016 (annual change)
▲ 2.1% (18,267.3 M€) Imports
▲ 0.8% (20,653.9 M€) Trade balance
▼ 8.1% in deficit (2,386.6 M€)
▼ 18.9% in energy deficit (68.6% of total)
Geographic distribution (%)
SECTORS: TOP 3
Ex
ports
Im
ports
EU
Rest of Europe 5.1%
69%
EU
Rest of Europe
54.8%
5.9% China
10%
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, March 2016
External sector
Exports % / total Imports % / total
Capital assets 18.8 Capital assets 20.7
Automobile 18.0 Chemistry 16.1
Food, beverage and tobacco
17.8 Automobile 13.9 EUROPE60,6
ASIA20,6
AMERICA10
AFRICA8,5
Other0,3
EUROPE74,1
AMERICA9,6
ASIA8,7
AFRICA6,1
Other1,5
Risk premium
41
Markets volatility, mainly in the banking sector, and political uncertainty explain
the risk premium development
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
Ten years bond yield. Spain and Germany (%) Risk premium (bp)
Spain Germany Risk premium
Source: Círculo de Empresarios based on Bank of Spain data, 2016
Spain´s position in international rankings
42
Switzerland
Norway
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
7
Hong Kong
Singapore
N. Zeland
SPAIN
1
2
3
43
Switzerland
Netherlands
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
24
Finland
Iceland
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
6
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
SPAIN
1
2
3
36
The Energy Architecture Performance Index 2016
European Patent Applications Ratio applications to population, 2015
2016 Index of Economic Freedom
2016 Environmental Perfomance Index
Corruption Perception Index 2015
Source: Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2016, WEF, 2016
Source: The Heritage Foundation, 2016
Source: Annual Report 2015, European Patent Office, 2016
Source: Yale University, 2016
Source: Transparency International. 2016
N. Zeland
Sweden
South Africa
SPAIN
1
2
3
27
The Open Budget Index 2015
Source: International Budget Partnership, 2016
www.circulodeempresarios.org