Post on 21-Jun-2015
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Cost reduction in PV: directions for R&DCost reduction in PV: directions for R&Dredefining the roles of public and private research for the solar age
Wim SinkeECN Solar Energy & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform
www.ecn.nl
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
• How much is needed for impact?
• At what cost?
• Under which conditions ?
The challenge quantified
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Under which conditions ?
From 10% global electricity to >25% of global energy :
How much is needed for impact?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
3 ~ >>>>30 TWp
(now 0.05 TWp)
0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less)
At what cost (price)?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
From generation cost to system price (or back)not a trivial exercise
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) determined by:
turn-key system price ($/Wp)• module price + Balance-of-System price
(power-related part & area-related part)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
energy output (kWh/Wp·yr)• primarily dependent on annual insolation• influenced by system quality and design, partial shading, etc.
operation & maintenance cost and replacement/repair ($/Wp·yr)
cost of capital:• depreciation time (yr)• interest rate / Return on Investment required (%)
0.05 $/kWh ~ 0.10 €/kWh (or less):
At what cost (price)?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
typically
1 $(€)/Wp(now ≥2 € /Wp)
At what cost (price)?The value of efficiency (example)
Moderate efficiency modules(efficiency X%)
High efficiency modules(efficiency 2X%)
modules (0,6 $/W)
area-related BoS (0,2 $/W)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
(efficiency X%)
modules (0,4 $/W)
area-related BoS (0,4 $/W)
power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)turn-key system price 1 $/Wp
power -related BoS and other costs (0,2 $/W)
Sustainability:
• Supply chain security (and price stability)• Cradle-to-cradle approach• Low (zero, or positive) impact:
Under which conditions?
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Low (zero, or positive) impact:• manufacturing• installation• operation• decommissioning
• Public acceptance
MiaSolé
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
Best efficiencies laboratory cells
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
L. Kazmerski
NREL, 2011
Cell & module technologies (flat plate )
Commercial: thin films
Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons
Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar
Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts
(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts
Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf
Cell & module technologies (flat plate )
Commercial: thin films
Commercial: wafer-based silicon - monocrystalline- multicrystalline- ribbons
Module efficiencies 14 ~ 20%ToyotaToyotaCity of the Sun (NL)City of the Sun (NL)
Trends:Trends:• new cell and module architectures• high(er) efficiencies
Trends:Trends:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Commercial: thin films- silicon- copper-indium/gallium-diselenide (CIGS)- cadmium telluride (CdTe)
Module efficiencies 7 ~ 13%First SolarFirst SolarHelianthosHelianthosWürthWürth SolarSolar
Emerging and novel technologies:- super-low-cost concepts
(& technologies for new applications)- super-high-efficiency concepts
Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance)Holst Centre/ECN (Solliance) AmolfAmolf
Trends:Trends:• increasing scale• differentiation according to application
Trends:Trends:• applications of nanotechnology• synergy with other fields of technology
Cell & module technologies (concentrator)
Commercial: multi-junction III-V semiconductors (and silicon)
Module efficiencies 25 ~ 30%
Abengoa/Concentrix
(FhG-ISE)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Lab: super-high efficiency concepts
Module efficiencies: too early to tell
Evolution of technology portfolio and module efficiencies (IEA PV Roadmap, 2010)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
PV technology shares
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator
Concentrator PV; emerging technologies
Thin-film CIGS
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201117 21-11-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film Si
Wafer-based Si
Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates
PV technology shares
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% Wafers and thin films; flat-plate & concentrator
Concentrator PV; emerging technologies
Thin-film CIGS
gigawatts
megawattsinstalled
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201118 21-11-2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
Thin-film CdTe
Thin-film Si
Wafer-based Si
Sources:- Photon International 03 2011- Solar Generation 6- Arnulf Jaeger-Waldau (private comm.)- own estimates
terawattsinstalled
gigawattsinstalled
System approaches
• (k)Wp to GWp• stand-alone, grid-connected, minigrid• BAPV, BIPV, ground based, and more• single-purpose or multifunctional• PV-only or hybrid (PV-T, PV-wind, etc.)• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• fixed orientation, one & two-axis tracking• modular or central design• and more
19
Sharp Corp. Mun. Heerhugowaard Enel Phoenix Solar
Diversity: blessing or curse?
Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets
Curse:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is
best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward
20
Diversity: blessing or curse?
Blessing:• robust development• confidence in the future: we ain’t seen nothing yet• ability to serve a wide range of applications and mark ets
Curse:
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• dilution of resourses• confusion and hesitance among potential users (what is
best, why not wait?)• tendency to flee forward
Overall:• diversity has brought us where we are and will bring us
where we want to be
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ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Passing the valleys of deathPassing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
Europe’s joint approach:Strategic Energy Technology Plan
EuropeanEuropeanIndustrialIndustrialInitiativesInitiatives
(EII’s)(EII’s)
EuropeanEuropeanEnergyEnergy
ResearchResearchAllianceAlliance(EERA)(EERA)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
(EII’s)(EII’s)(EERA)(EERA)
Monitoring and steering:Monitoring and steering:
SETSET--PlanPlanInformationInformation
SystemSystem(SETIS)(SETIS)
the Solar Europe Industry Initiative(EPIA & European PV Technology Platform)
COSTCOSTREDUCTIONREDUCTION
volume+
LARGELARGE--SCALESCALEDEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT
market deployment
R&D + demonstration
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
+innovation
INTEGRATIONINTEGRATION
grid+
builtenvironment
DEPLOYMENTDEPLOYMENT
&
INDUSTRYCOMPETITIVENESS
R&D + demonstration
PV system integration
smart grids & integrationof other renewables
SolarSolar Europe Europe IndustryIndustryInitiative (SEII)Initiative (SEII)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Development targets SRA2
Today 2020 2030Long term potential
Typical turn-key price for 100 kWpsystem (2011 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
2.5 1.5 1 0.5
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
100 kWp commercial roof system, ItalyPR of 80%, yield of 1440 kWh/kWp25 year lifetime, discount rate of 6.5%Current and 2020 values consistent with SEII KPIs
Typical electricity generation costs, Southern Europe (2011 €/kWh)
0.19 0.10 0.06 0.03
Typical system energy payback time, Southern Europe (years) 0.5-1.5 <0.5 <0.5 0.25
General scientific & technological challenges forPV cells & modules (selection)
High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• maximize absorption; minimize recombination losses• apply efficient concentration (high X, light trapping)• utilize full spectrum (multi gap, multi band, multi carrier, photon
conversion, and more)
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Low cost• high efficiency (leverage at all levels)• low materials cost (ultra-thin layers, low-cost materials)• high-throughput processing (vacuum & non-vacuum)
Sustainability• minimum materials & energy use; (design for) recycling• alternative materials (CIS � CZTS, Ag � Cu, etc.)
General scientific & technological challenges forPV systems (selection)
High performance (= high efficiency & high annual yi eld)• sun tracking• high availability (system reliability)• low electrical losses (DC/AC conversion, cabling, mismatch, etc.)• (self) cleaning
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Low cost• high efficiency• low materials cost• fast preparation & installation, low maintenance, replacement & repair
Sustainability• “low BoS” designs, low-energy, abundant materials• (design for) recycling
General scientific & technological challenges forsystem integration (selection)
High performance• electrical integration: avoid having to switch down or off• physical integration: optimize system lay-out, select optimum sites
Low cost• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• electrical integration: concepts & technologies for high penetration(see e.g. prof. Martin Braun’s (FhG-IWES) and dr. Tim Meyer’s (DTMC))
• physical integration: standardisation, prefab, integrated fixtures, click-on/click-off, etc.
Sustainability• electrical integration: optimize energy technology portfolio• physical integration: low-impact & durable materials (design for)
recycling, low intrusion, good aesthetics
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to market pullfrom technology push to market pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
• Don’t oversell (grid parity on consumer level in one country is not enough)
• Quality first (TW-scale use requires professional quality, not just bottom-low prices: “Trust comes by foot and leaves by horse”)
Develop bridging business (& system) concepts
From incentive-driven to self-sustained markets
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
• Develop bridging business (& system) concepts
• Commercial companies build up in-house R&D capacity
• Industry sets the agenda in major R&D programs
• Governments (EC and countries) want to see near-term a nd nearby results
From technology push to market pull
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
nearby results
• Role of public research shifts:
from multi-parter joint development projects to more emphasis on:
• open innovation models• bilateral competitive R&D• developing high-risk high-potential options (beyond industry scope)
ContentsContents
The PV challenges quantifiedThe PV challenges quantified
Building blocks for the solutionBuilding blocks for the solution•• technology portfolio & system approachestechnology portfolio & system approaches
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 2011
Dealing with diversityDealing with diversity•• Europe’s approach to R&DEurope’s approach to R&D
Crossing the valleys of deathCrossing the valleys of death•• from incentivefrom incentive--driven to selfdriven to self--sustained marketssustained markets•• from technology push to business pullfrom technology push to business pull
OutlookOutlookBackground photo: www.bso.vvs.be
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201134
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201135
Outlook
• Cost reduction: factor 5
• Efficiency enhancement: factor 2
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 201136
• Volume increase: factor 100-1000
PV Asia Pacific Conference 2011 – Singapore – 3 Novemb er 20119 March 2010
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