Putting it all Together

1: The Precautionary Principle

3: Implementing Precaution

science, precaution and innovation in risk management

2: Science and Precaution

4: Constructive Technology Assessment

5: Diversity, Flexibility and Resilience

6: Robust Risk Management

Science in Risk Policy

“ … this government's approach is to

make decisions on GM crops on the

basis of sound science. “

„Sound science‟ and „science-based policy‟

Tony Blair, House of Commons, 10 November 2003

A widespread and influential view

- science as a source of authority, justification and „closure‟

- hedge against irrational precaution and uninformed public

The Challenge of Precaution

Many different forms since 1972 Stockholm Environment Conference

“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full

scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective

measures to prevent environmental degradation”

Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration

Current form in “Vorsorgeprinzip” in 1970‟s German environment policy

Widely adopted in 1980‟s in international marine pollution conventions

London, OSPAR, North Sea

Subsequently spreads to variety of other environmental and health fields

1992 Biodiversity Convention, 1990 EC Directive 90/220

Now major issue in European Harmonisation and global trade liberalisation

Amsterdam Treaty, WTO, SPS, TBT, Codex

GENERAL ATTITUDES

OPPONENTS ACCUSE

fundamentalism

anti-science

subjectivism

short sightedness

blinkers

idealism

technophobia

The Background to Precaution

PROPONENTS CLAIM

humility

inclusivity

pluralism

long-termism

holism

biocentrism

ecological modernisation

The Background to Precaution

LACK OF EVIDENCE OF HARM

PARTICULAR FEATURES

proportionality: match broad costs to benefits of regulation

IS NOT THE SAME AS

EVIDENCE OF LACK OF HARM

ASSOCIATED PRINCIPLES

prevention: rather than a focus on cleaning up impacts

polluter pays: damage costs borne by those responsible

no regrets: prioritise actions which satisfy all aims

substitution: phase out where there are preferable alternatives

clean technology: pursue only environmentally sound innovation

• When uncertainties are cited as grounds for delay in regulation

Some Triggers for Precaution

• Where there are conflicting views among experts, agencies or disciplines

• Where there is an acute lack of trust in market or regulatory institutions

• Where effects are irreversible

• Where risks display certain key features

hazard properties, eg: carcino- / muta- / terato- genicity

exposure potentials, eg: persistence, bioaccumulation

policy characteristics, eg: transboundary, maldistribution, global commons

• Where insurance is impossible to obtain without special legislation

• Where there are serious questions over need or alternatives

• Where timescales of innovation and regulation mismatch

Precautionary Measures in Regulation

shift burdens of persuasion in favour of affected, not proponents

„evidentiary presumptions‟ hazard properties or exposure potentials

drive up minimum standards force market behaviour

reverse listing specify what is (rather than not) permitted

provide blame incentives executive responsibility

corporate manslaughter

strict or absolute liability

„command and control‟ bans (phthalates)

moratoria (commercial gm crops),

phase-outs (HHC‟s)

forcing targets (GHG‟s)

(ie: „onus of persuasion‟

„level of proof‟

„responsibility for evidence‟ )

Precautionary Strategies for Industry

mandatory insurance and restoration requirements

deposit / refund schemes and assurance bonds

waste prevention audits and total quality management

duty of care and continuous performance improvement

long term surveillance and monitoring of impacts

emergency planning, education and training

Concerns over the Precautionary Principle

“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full

scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective

measures to prevent environmental degradation”

Principle 15, 1992 Rio Declaration

Ambiguous as a „science based‟ „decision rule‟

threat? seriousness? irreversibility? full scientific certainty? cost-effective?

How to ensure that precautionary interventions are proportionate?

Major international political tensions: Kyoto, WTO, GM, Chemicals

Prompts unfavourable comparison with „sound scientific‟ approaches

(eg: risk assessment, cost-benefit analysis, life cycle assessment)

Strong limits set on precaution :

only in risk management - always based on risk assessment

Ambiguity in Risk Assessment

IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT ELECTRICITY GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES

UNDER ASSUMPTIONS OF 32 OFFICIAL STUDIES (1980-1996)

impact as US c/kWh, 1990 base low impact high impact

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

not

problematic

problematic

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment

routine flood risk

transport safety

known diseases

floods under climate change

many carcinogens

specific novel pathogen

different effects: deaths vs injuries,

questions: acceptable? / safe? / best?

views: toxicology / epidaemiology

unknown mechanisms: CFC

excluded end-points: EDCs

unknown pathogens: BSE

not

problematic

problematic

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

INCERTITUDE

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment

not

problematic

problematic

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

PREVENTION

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment

not

problematic

problematic

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

PRECAUTION

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

Limits to ‘science-based’ assessment

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

not

problematic

problematic

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY

AMBIGUITY

IGNORANCE

A Range of Practical Tools

probabilistic risk assessment

cost benefit analysis

Bayesian methods

smaller ‘safety factors’

larger ‘uncertainty factors’

sensitivity / scenario analysis

interval analysis, proof onus

decision heuristics

sensitivity / scenario analysis

fuzzy logic, Q-method

multi-criteria mapping

participatory deliberation

interdisciplinarity

extended foresight

research and monitoring

diversity, flexibility, resilience

Traditional Idea

Process and Analysis

HAZARD

IDENTIFICATION

RISK

ASSESSMENT

RISK

EVALUATION

RISK

MANAGEMENT

RISK

COMMUNICATION

prescriptive

recommendation

Emerging Picture

HAZARD

IDENTIFICATION

RISK

ASSESSMENT

RISK

EVALUATION

RISK

MANAGEMENT

RISK

COMMUNICATION

prescriptive

recommendation

Process and Analysis

Traditional Idea

Open-ended Process

HAZARD

IDENTIFICATION

RISK

ASSESSMENT

RISK

EVALUATION

RISK

MANAGEMENT

RISK

COMMUNICATION

prescriptive

recommendation

Process and Analysis

Rigid Decision Rules

Rigid Decision Rules

Open-ended Process

PRECAUTIONARY

PRINCIPLE

PRECAUTIONARY

APPROACH

“Where there are threats of

serious or irreversible damage,

lack of full scientific certainty

shall not be used as a reason

for postponing cost-effective

measures to prevent

environmental degradation”

Process and Analysis

• humility over the role of science

• engage citizens & stakeholders

• explore different framings

• address options at earliest stages

• involve wider disciplines

• scrutinize burdens of persuasion

• enhance the role of monitoring

• consider pros as well as cons

Precautionary lessons from chemicals

extend scope additive, cumulative, synergistic effects; life cycles, compliance

real world effects of CFCs; MTBE, PCBs as ‘closed systems’

humble science sensitivities & proxies: mobility, persistence, bioaccumulation

omission of persistence in organochlorines, MTBE, CFCs

active research prioritise targetted research and open-ended monitoring

no research: TBT, BSE; no monitoring: asbestos, benzene, PCBs

deliberate argument levels of proof, burden of evidence, onus of persuasion

Swann committee on antimicrobials, 1967 later ignored

alternative options pros, cons & justifications for range of options & substitutes

ALARA, BAT, BPM – ionising radiation, fisheries, acid rain

engage public provides independence of interests and robustness on values

BSE, benzene, DES, asbestos, acid rain, fisheries

social learning beyond „usual suspects‟; collect „transdisciplinary‟ knowledge

MTBE / engineers; BSE / vets

Science and Precaution Revisited

SCIENTIFIC

DISCIPLINE

compare pros and cons of different options

shift burdens of persuasion

address ignorance through monitoring and resilience

extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects

systematic

sceptical

peer reviewed

independent

accountable

learning

ELEMENTS OF PRECAUTION

engage different disciplines and stakeholders

Science and Precaution Revisited

SCIENTIFIC

DISCIPLINE

systematic

sceptical

peer reviewed

independent

accountable

learning

RISK

ASSESSMENT

PRECAUTIONARY

APPRAISAL

compare pros and cons of different options

shift burdens of persuasion

address ignorance through monitoring and resilience

extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects

engage different disciplines and stakeholders

ELEMENTS OF PRECAUTION BROADEN SCOPE OF REGULATORY PROCESS

RISK

ASSESSMENT

PRECAUTIONARY

APPRAISAL

BROADEN SCOPE OF APPRAISAL PROCESS

SCIENTIFIC

DISCIPLINE

systematic

sceptical

peer reviewed

independent

accountable

learning

compare pros and cons of different options

shift burdens of persuasion

address ignorance through monitoring and resilience

extend scope to complex, indirect and institutional effects

engage different disciplines and stakeholders

Science and Precaution Revisited

Precaution and Foresight

Both are novel policy concepts and institutions emerging in the 1980‟s

Both embody aspirations to more effective social choice of technology

Both relate to the indeterminacy of innovation and its wider effects

Both originated as formulaic expert-led procedures

Both confronted serious credibility challenges in the later 1990‟s

Both responded by experimenting with more open inclusive processes

Do either properly and you‟re effectively doing both!

involving inclusive deliberation over broadly defined pros and cons of

technological alternatives under state of ignorance at early stages of innovation

Foresight: failure to anticipate key drivers and obstacles

Precaution: need to make simple normative prescription more operational

Both: need to acknowledge and address ambiguity and ignorance

Constructive Technology Assessment

A MODEL FOR PRECAUTIONARY FORESIGHT?

Developed in the Netherlands in the late 1980‟s

draws heavily on institutional economics and sociology of technology

looks at innovation explicitly as a socially constructed process

takes account of dynamics of momentum, lock-in and actor networks

focuses on research and demonstration as much as dissemination

Key Characteristics

transcends dichotomy between „promotion‟ and „control‟ of technology

opens up innovation networks to more pluralistic range of actors

emphasises flexibility, reflexivity and learning

“Look before you leap” / “a stitch in time saves nine”

after Rip et al (1995)

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

technological system

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application technological system

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application technological system

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

institutional context

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application technological system institutional context

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

DELIBERATE ATTENTION TO PROCESS OF CONSTRUCTION

functional application technological system institutional context

CTA: A Focus on Actor Networks

CTA: The Bottom Line

space of technological

possibilities

time

space of technological

possibilities

time

CTA: The Bottom Line

TECHNOLOGIES CAN TAKE DIFFERENT EQUALLY-VIABLE PATHWAYS

CTA is about more deliberate construction and choice of particular pathway

space of technological

possibilities

time

CTA: The Bottom Line

space of technological

possibilities

time

CTA: The Bottom Line

TECHNOLOGIES CAN TAKE DIFFERENT EQUALLY-VIABLE PATHWAYS

CTA is about more deliberate construction and choice of particular pathway

about making more „resilient‟ technological choices

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

LIKELIHOODS

not

problematic

problematic

KNOWLEDGE ABOUT

POSSIBILITIES

not

problematic problematic

RISK

UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE

Precaution, CTA and Engagement

engagement for:

scope, criteria,

weights, utility,

risk aversion

engagement for:

sensitivity ranges,

decision heuristics,

lay knowledge

engagement for:

questions, asssumptions, boundaries,

priorities, values, meanings, interests,

deliberative judgements, social learning

engagement for:

scenarios, horizons, proof, persuasion

monitoring, research, innovation,

diversity, flexibility, resilience

AMBIGUITY

Practical response to irreducible ignorance

Technological Resilience and Robustness

Robustness sustain functions in shifting conditions

Resilience sustain functions under transient shocks

Flexibility individual technologies adapt to conditions

Diversity hedge with multiple structures

Ignorance can be located at different points in process

Institutional Ignorance

Societal Ignorance

Irreducible Ignorance

Even where the problem can‟t be fully defined,

there may yet be a robust response

audit, interdisciplinarity, public engagement

research, monitoring, „horizon scanning‟

Humility, robustness, resilience, flexibility

DIVERSITY MAY BE PARTICULARLY INTERESTING

The Multiple Qualities of Diversity

ADDRESSES AMBIGUITY accommodates divergent perspectives

HEDGES IGNORANCE avoids “all the eggs in one basket”

MITIGATES „LOCK-IN‟ sustains more flexible portfolios

FOSTERS ROBUSTNESS catalyses more sustainable innovation

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS

increasing diversity

VARIETY

(number of options)

VARIETY

(number of options)

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS

increasing diversity

increasing diversity

VARIETY

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

increasing diversity

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

increasing diversity

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

DISPARITY

(differences between

options)

increasing diversity

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

DISPARITY

(differences between

options)

increasing diversity

A Definition of Diversity

DIVERSITY HAS

DIFFERENT ELEMENTS VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

DISPARITY

(differences between

options)

Divergent interests

and perspectives

can be accommodated,

even if they

cannot be optimised

A Definition of Diversity

VARIETY

(number of options)

BALANCE

(reliance on

options)

DISPARITY

(differences between

options)

Good surprises harnessed,

bad surprises forestalled,

flexibility and learning

enhanced -

“don’t put all your eggs

in one basket”

Practical Lessons for Risk Management

“SCIENCE SHOULD BE „ON TAP, NOT ON TOP‟ ”

no simple „analytical fixes‟ for complexities of technological risk

„best available science‟ is necessary, not sufficient condition

science typically „under-determines‟ options for action

„sound science‟ and „science based‟ decision making is rhetoric

can serve to conceal assumptions, values and interests

as important to validate subjective „framing assumptions‟ as science

eg: nature of problem, choice of options, relevant issues,

interests and priorities, possible surprises, system attributes

public engagement is about analytical rigour, not „political correctness‟

Practical Lessons for Risk Management

“DON‟T THROW THE BABY OUT WITH THE BATHWATER”

wide variety of effective practical tools and procedures

appraisal tools, eg: uncertainty, scenario and sensitivity analysis

methods, eg: multi-criteria appraisal, constructive TA

procedures, eg: citizen panels. focus groups, deliberative polls

scientific disciplines provide for rigour and transparency

constrain (tho‟ not determine) the domain of reasonable options

“decisions have to be made”

justify in terms of professional judgement not just „definitive analysis‟

democratic legitimacy

political accountability

the role of risk appraisal is to „open up‟ rather than „close down‟

Practical Lessons for Risk Management

“LEARN AS YOU GO” - some tools covered in this course

METHODS: “horses for courses”

not just risk assessment – different tools valid in different contexts

uncertainty analysis, multi-criteria mapping

FRAMEWORKS: broaden appraisal procedures

framings, complexities, pros and cons, options, values, interests, innovation

precautionary appraisal, constructive technology assessment

PROCESS: focus on effective social and organisational learning

not “analysis / deliberation”, “blame / no blame” – but of links between these

participatory deliberation, stakeholder negotiation, ‘deliberative mapping’

ENGAGEMENT: full attention to contention and dissent

as important as organised scepticism in risk science

‘plural and conditional’ advice – ‘opening up’ not ‘closing down’

EXPECTATIONS: “don‟t put all the eggs in one basket” diversity in regulatory outcomes not only inevitable, but also desirable

think about diversity, resilience and flexibility