Puerto Rico

“THE ISLAND OF CLIMATE

CHANGE” -JUDITH ENCK, RA-EPA, R-2

Dr. Javier E. Laureano

Executive Director

San Juan Bay Estuary Program

Part of the US since 1898-US citizens since 1917-US currency

Island population: 3.7 million (plus 4.6M living in mainland US), more than:

Wyoming

DC

Vermont

North Dakota

Alaska

South Dakota

Delaware

Montana

Iowa

Connecticut

Oklahoma

Oregon

Rhode Island

Hawaii

Maine

New Hampshire

Idaho

Nebraska

West Virginia

New Mexico

Nevada

Utah

Kansas

Mississippi

Watershed & Water Bodies

LAND USE Most of the population living in coastal areas-near 1M in the

SJBE’s watershed-

National Estuary Program-USEPA

WHAT IS IN PERIL DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?:

The economy of Puerto Rico and the Caribbean region

9.2 million travelers per year/ LMM Airport

1.2 million cruise passengers per year

80% of all imports-Shipping container volume greater than Hawaii, Guam and Alaska combined.

ECOSYSTEMS THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE?:

Key ecosystems

124 fish species

160 bird species

300 wetland plant species

33% of all remaining mangrove acreage of the Island

Current situation:

STEADY SEA LEVEL RISE FOR 48 YEARS

NOAA-La

Puntilla-San Juan

Metro Area: Extreme Events: Decadal episodes >78mm/24hrs

(Pablo Méndez-Lázaro, Frank Muller et al.)

Current situation:

CONSTANT FLOODS OF STORMWATER COMBINED WITH RAW SEWAGE

Martín Peña Channel: 27,000 persons living in poverty

constantly flooded with raw sewage-public health crisis-

Current situation:

SEVERE COASTAL EROSION

2007

2010

2014

PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERNS:

Dengue, Asthma, Chikungunya

What are we doing?:

RED MANGROVE PLANTING

(Ecosystem-based adaptation)

Restoring the shoreline

Community-

based

2007-2008

2011-2012

2014

Citizen Science:

Living lab for

students

Citizen Science:

Living lab for

students

What are we doing?:

IMPROVING THE SYSTEM’S RESILIENCE THROUGH INVASIVE SPECIES

REMOVAL FROM WETLANDS

Promoting healthy wetlands through invasive

species management: Melaleuca quinquenervia

Melaleuca stand

N 0.05 km

Melaleuca

quinquenervia

removal

Melaleuca

quinquenervia

removal

WHAT ARE WE DOING?:

Creating the conditions to recruit new corals

(Environmental enhancement)

245 structures- 800lbs each-

Deployment

Deployment

Underwater trail

creation

90% increase in

fish population

2,500 new coral

colonies

What are we doing?:

EDUCATING THE PUBLIC THROUGH PUBLIC SERVICE CAMPAIGNS,

WORKSHOPS AND PUBLICATIONS

Sierra Club’s Cool Cities Campaign: Global

Change Solutions for Puerto Rico

Over 1,000 mayors of the US and PR have signed an

agreement to reduce energy consumption

The agreement:

What are we doing?:

We are conducting the first lagoons’ water level monitoring with the USGS

San José Lagoon-San Juan – 50049800 (USGS)

http://estuario.org/

Partnerships

• USEPA-Climate Ready Estuaries-

• USGS

• NOAA

• USFW

• Enlace Latino the Acción Climática (ELAC)

• University of Puerto Rico

• University of the Sacred Heart

• University of South Florida

• Department of Environmental and Natural Resources

• Caribbean Coastal and Ocean Observing System

• Puerto Rico Climate Change Council

• Sierra Club-Cool Cities

Become our next partner! Some areas where we need funding and alliances:

Adaptation planning

Public health studies and prevention methods

Protection of key infrastructure

Beach nourishment

Disasters and flood prevention

Coastal erosion

Dunes protection

Invasive species removal and management

Relocation of families and citizens

Education and communication efforts

Wetlands protection and enhancement

Resiliency Funding

THE STATE OF THE PUERTO RICO CLIMATE: 2014

Assessing socio-ecological vulnerabilities in a changing climate…

pr-ccc.org

Geophysical

and Chemical Scientific

Knowledge

Ecology and Biodiversity

Communicating Climate Change

and Coastal Hazards

Society and Economy

PRCCC

Working Groups

Population and Economy

Emerged land area: 3,508 mi ² (9,497 km2)

Territorial waters: 9 mn (10.35 mi)

Population: 3.7 millon (29th U.S.) Coastal Population: 2.7 million (70%)

Urban areas/coastal zone: 40%

Urban/coastline ratio: 24%

GNP: $67 billion/yr (2013)

Manufacture: 45.5%

Finances, Insurance and Real Estate: 19%

Services: 12.8% (Tourism: 8%)

Government: 9.7%

Commerce: 7.8%

Transportation and Services: 3.2%

Construction: 1.9%

Agriculture: 0.7

Eleven ports

Eight airports

Six Power Plants

1,080 miles of sanitary infrastructure

13 waste water treatment plants

81 industrial parks

114 miles of primary roads

Critical Infrastructure / Coastal Zone (1 Km)

The WMO report (2014) confirmed that 2013 tied with

2007 as the sixth warmest on record:

The extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what

we would expect as a result of human-induced

climate change.

“We saw heavier precipitation, more intense heat,

and more damage from storm surges and coastal

flooding as a result of sea level rise - as Typhoon

Haiyan so tragically demonstrated in the Philippines,”

WMO Secretary-General, Mr. Michel Jarraud

Hayhoe et al, 2012

Tem

per

atu

re

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n

< 1

in/d

ay

Extr

eme

pre

cip

ita

tio

n

>

3in

/da

y

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) – (CariCOOS)

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5 SLOPE= 0.023 0C.y

-1 (+/- 0.002)

R=0.30 N=1513 P <0.0001

NE

Ca

rib

be

an

SS

T a

no

ma

ly (

0C

)

SST data from CaTS. The slope or SST trend between 1993 and 2007 was linearly estimated at 0.026 (+/-.01) degrees Celcius/yr

SLR Projections, Planning and Design

considerations for Puerto Rico

1. PRCCC Analysis Conducted by USACE , Jacksonville District 2. Section 22 Agreement has been formailized by DNER-USACE

• by 2060: 0.07 to 0.57 m above current mean sea level • by 2110: 0.14 and 1.70 m above current mean sea level

Ernesto L. Díaz 2013

Storm Surge Modeling in Puerto Rico in Support of Emergency Response,

Risk Assessment, Coastal Planning and Climate Change Analysis

More intense?

More frequent?

HURRICANES

Presidential Disaster Declarations (1989-2014)

Are climate changes natural or human induced?

Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus

…WE MUST ADAPT !

HOTELS – FLOOD ZONE

Puerto Rico’s Adaptation Strategies

- Island-wide, municipal and community-based adaptation - risk reduction plans

- Integrate climate scientific knowledge to plan new cities and towns

- Adaptive design of new infrastructure

- Planned retreat

- Ecosystem based Adaptation

- Beneficial uses of dredged materials

- Sustainable beach nourishment

- Secure financing to protect, adapt, relocate and/or retrofit critical infrastructure

DECREASING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

Cecilio Ortiz, PhD

University of Puerto Rico

A transdisciplinary platform for sustainable governance

CREPR: Energy Regulatory Commission

DT: Department of Labor

DA: Department of Agriculture

DT: Department of Transportation

PRIDCO: PR Industrial Development Corporation

DV: Department of Housing

JCA: Environmental Quality Board

DS: Department of Health

THREE FUNCTIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT

Living Space Waste

Repository

Supply Depot

VULNERABILITY AND RISK… TWO ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS

• Vulnerability – group of characteristics of a person or a group that influence in his/her capacity to anticipate, cope and recuperate without external aid from the impact of a extreme natural event.

• Risk – probability that the personal characteristics associated to vulnerability and generated by economic, political, and cultural conditions coincide in time and space with an extreme natural event.

THE CONFLICT OF SUSTAINABILITY

• A political system that guarantees its citizens the oportunity to participate effectively in decision-making processes.

• An economic system that is capable to generate sustained surplus and technical knowledge.

• A social system that provides solutions to the social tensions consequence of the disonant development.

• A production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base of development.

• A Technological system that can search for new solutions continuously.

• An international system that promotes sustainable paterns of comerce and finances.

• An flexible administrative system that has the capacity to auto-correct.

SUSTAINABILITY IS…

(World Commission in Environment and Development, 1987a: 65)