Province-level analysis using multivariate linear regression model for predicting the impact of...

Post on 08-Jul-2015

117 views 1 download

description

International Conference on Applied Statistic 2013 | 16 – 18 September 2013 | Bandung, Indonesia.

Transcript of Province-level analysis using multivariate linear regression model for predicting the impact of...

Background

Methods

Result & Discussion

Conclusion

Reommendation

Background

Background

Research Question

How do the prevalence of diabetes

influence the prevalence of stroke

in Indonesia’s province, given each

province has constant prevalence

of hypertension ?

Background

Methods

Result & Discussion

Conclusion

Recommendation

What is the study design?

How is the data collected?

Data Resource:

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

Prevalence of

Stroke

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

Prevalence of

Diabetes

Prevalence of

Stroke

How is the data collected?

Data Resource: http://labmandat.litbang.depkes.go.id/

Prevalence of

Diabetes

Prevalence of

Stroke

Prevalence of

Hypertension

How is the data analyzed?

Statistical Tool & Model

How is the data analyzed?

Y : prevalence of stroke

X : prevalence of diabetes

X : prevalence of hypertension

i

1i

2i

Statistical Tool & Model

How is the data analyzed?

Y : prevalence of stroke

X : prevalence of diabetes

X : prevalence of hypertension

i

1i

2i

Statistical Tool & Model

E(Y |X , X ) = βX + βX + α (constant) + ɛ (residual error) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

How is the data analyzed?

Y : prevalence of stroke

X : prevalence of diabetes

X : prevalence of hypertension

i

1i

2i

Statistical Tool & Model

STATA ®12

E(Y |X , X ) = βX + βX + α (constant) + ɛ (residual error) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Background

Methods

Result & Discussion

Conclusion

Recommendation

Regression Assumption

Regression Assumption

1) Independent observation

Regression Assumption

1) Independent observation

2) Linear relationship

Regression Assumption

1) Independent observation

2) Linear relationship

3) Homoscedasticity (constant variance)

Regression Assumption

1) Independent observation

2) Linear relationship

3) Homoscedasticity (constant variance)

4) Y | X, is normaly distributed

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Peason’s correlation analysis

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000).

2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000).

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000).

Y : prevalence of stroke i

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000).

Y : prevalence of stroke i

X : prevalence of diabetes 1i

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

Regression fit Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000).

Y : prevalence of stroke i

X : prevalence of diabetes 1i

X : prevalence of hypertension 2i

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

95% CI Regression fit

Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000). The increase was estimated to be 4.45% (95% CI from 2.31% -

6.59%) per 1 % increased of prevalence of diabetes,

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

510

15

20

.5 1 1.5 2 2.5Prevalence of Diabetes

95% CI Regression fit

Prevalence of Stroke

Pre

va

len

ce

of

str

ok

e

Prevalence of diabetes

r = 0.61 (p < 0.001)

Multivariate linear regression

E(Y | X ,X ) = 6.11 + 4.45 X - 0.083X + ɛ ~N (0, 2.5 ) 1i 2i 1i 2i i

Prevalence of stroke increased significantly with prevalence of diabetes

(t(30) = 4.25 ,p=0.000). The increase was estimated to be 4.45% (95% CI from 2.31% -

6.59%) per 1 % increased of prevalence of diabetes, given controlling prevalence of

hypertension (within province has constant prevalence of hypertension).

2

Adj-R = 0.35 2

Background

Methods

Result & Discussion

Conclusion

Recommendation

Thank you