PRESENTED BY:Dr. Darrell Bricker, Chief Executive Officer, Ipsos Global Public Affairs

The Big Shift

2013 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

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Presentation Today…

1. You Think You Know Canada

2. The Transition to a New Canadian Mindset

3. The Big Shift

4. The New Challenge: Skilled Labour

5. Redemption…

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So, how well do you think you know your country and fellow Canadians?

Let’s find out…

68%of Canadians enjoy quizzes…

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What province or region is most likely to support the de-criminalization of marijuana?

Atlantic Canada

What province or region hates taxes the most?

Quebec

What province or region is least likely to believe it’s disrespectful to put the Canadian Flag on underwear?

British Columbia

Oh Canada, eh?

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What province or region is the most religious, most believes the devil is active and most believes we will all perish in the battle of

Armageddon?

Atlantic Canada

What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers?

Atlantic Canada

What province/region is least likely to believe Canada would be better off if immigrants went back where they came from?

Alberta

Oh Canada, eh?

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What province or region is the most environmentally conscious?

Atlantic Canada

What province or region believes that Anne Murray’s likeness should be put on Canadian Money?

Manitoba/Saskatchewan

What province or region believes they belong first and foremost to the country, not their province?

Ontario

Oh Canada, eh?

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Canada’s Favorite Donut?

BOSTON CREAM(18%)

MAKING ASSUMPTIONS Leads to Stereotyping

Which can lead to bad decisions…

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Forces Shaping

The NEW Canadian

Mindset

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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…

Population

In 1960 Canada was 18 million souls, now almost 34 Million

Fertility Rate Now Below Replacement Levels

Fertility Rate

Life Expectancy Has Increased – Especially For Women

Life Expectancy By 2015

Seniors Will Outnumber Children

Seniors

We’ve Become An Urban Nation

Urban Nation

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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…

78.6% use the internet versus 32.7% world average: even ahead of Europe @ 61.3%

Technology

Immigration has increased – and the places immigrants come from have changed

Cultural Diversity

Immigrants represent 6% of rural populations, 25% of urban areas

Immigrants and Urban Areas

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Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…

Educational attainment has increased

Education

Female employment rate has nearly doubled

Employment

The importance of trade in our economy has quadrupled

Trade

Government a bigger share of our economy - taking 25% more of our money, but redistributing more too

Government

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Historical Age Pyramid for the Population of Canada 1921 to…

1961 1961

2011 2011

MALE FEMALE

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Population Growth for G-8 CountriesCanada Leads the Pack

CANADA

UNITED STATES

UK

ITALY

FRANCE

RUSSIA

JAPAN

GERMANY

2001—2006

2006—2011

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The Top 10 Countries of Birthof Recent Immigrants to Canada

(Caribbean)

Philippines

India

China

U.K.

U.S.

France

Iran

UAE

Morocco

S. Korea

36,578

30,252

30,197

9,499

9,243

6,934

6,815

6,796

5,946

5,539

2010

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The Change in Immigrant Entry Classification: Emphasis is on Economic Immigrants…

Refugees19,204

OtherImmigrants

1,835

Economic Immigrants35,840

FamilyClass

42,475

1986Refugees24,696

OtherImmigrants

8,852

Economic Immigrants186,913

FamilyClass

60,220

2010

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7.0%

28.8%

38.4%

17.6%

13.1%

Share of Population By RegionEast of Ontario Sagging, Ontario and West Surging

3.4

3.8

4.2

0.2

4.2

ATLANTIC

QUEBEC

ONTARIO

PRAIRIES

BC

1961

2011

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Foreign Born: As a Percentage of City Population

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Introducing…

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THE BIG SHIFT

Confluence of global trends – movement of money and people

Declining birth rates and aging population

Relative decline of Quebec and the East

Changing levels and sources of immigration

Canada’s relative success and positive global image

Rise of suburban Toronto and the West as power centers

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The Consolidating Right and the Emerging Left

Ocean Pacific Atlantic

Geography Toronto suburbs, rural and West

Quebec, Atlantic, urban centers

Values Economy, government a problem, law and order, old Canadian symbols, suburban sensibilities

Equity, inclusion, anti-austerity, government drives solutions, downtown, college-town sensibilities

Demographics Middle class, established immigrants, college educated, entrepreneurs

The afflicted and those who want to help, public sector, arts community, university educated

Mood Positive and pro-change Bleak, concerned

Voting Block United 35% - 45% Divided 45% - 55%

CONSOLIDATING RIGHT EMERGING LEFT

Nobody’s Unpredictable

The Consumer Citizen Mindset has Changed

We Are Growing Older

We are Growing by Immigration, not by Births

Our Centre of Political Gravity is Shifting West and Blue

Major Challenge for Canada:

SKILLED WORKERS…

Employment Forecasts in Canada:

Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada

Who’s Having Trouble Filling Jobs? 34% Worldwide, 25% in Canada…

Source: Human Resources and Skills Development Canada

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Ontario Skilled Labour Force 2006 versus 2031 Even by 2016 Skilled Labour Deficit is almost 750,000

Total Labour Force Skilled Labour Force Unskilled Labour Force

1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

Million Workers

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

SURPLUS

DEFICIT

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Consistently Hardest Jobs to Fill:

Ranking in the top 10 globally for 7 consecutive years …

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Skilled Trades Workers

Engineers

Sales Representatives

Management Executives

4

Acct./Finance Professionals

Technicians

Nobody’s Unpredictable

Canada Will Need to ACCELERATE Attracting and Retaining Skilled Immigrants From the World Next Door…

Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown.

Likelihood of Employees to move to another COUNTRY:

FL2. Imagine there was a full-time job available in another country at least three to five hours away by plane for anywhere between two or three years with a minimum 10% increase in your pay and all your moving expenses covered. How likely would you be to consider moving to this new job? Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827

25% (+6 from 19% last year )

of Global workers would

very likely consider a

move to another country

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VERY LIKELY

Top Countries for Relocation: Canada Near the Top…

FL3. Still assuming you had a full-time job opportunity abroad, which country would you most want to relocate to?Base: All Employed Respondents: n= 12827

Mentions smaller than 5% are not shown.

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Nobody’s Unpredictable

SomeKeyIncentives:

Our ECONOMY…

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Global Average Tracked - Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”:…

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

1

October 2012:

36%

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Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

Global Citizens Assess the Current Economic Situation in their Country as “Good”…October 2012 data

‘Very Good / Somewhat Good’

Canada #3

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North American (Canada/US) CountriesAssessing the Current Economic Situation

Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

N/CVery Good / Somewhat Good

44 Points

CANADA

U.S.

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Points to Ponder…

Canada is NOT the United States

The ‘Casino’ economy is NOT the real economy

‘Tough times are relative’ and compared to the rest of the world Canadians are NOT living through ‘tough times’

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Canada’s NewFace

Next…

What analysts and others say about Canada…

BrandCanada…

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Best Country For Business 2011:

#1 Canada

FORBES:

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WORLD TRAVEL MARKET

Canada most powerful country brand in the world for the second year in a row…

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Canada has best reputation in world based on survey of 42,000 people in 51 countries…

FUTURE BRAND:

Nobody’s Unpredictable38

Canada’s NewFace

What Global CitizensThink AboutUs…

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How The World Views Canadians:

Friendly

Polite

Educated

Hard working

Care about the environment

Different than people in the U.S.A

Financially well off

Someone I would welcome into my house for a meal

Tolerant of people of different racial and cultural backgrounds

Cool

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How The World Views Canadians:

A place I'd Like to Visit

Some of Most Beautiful Landscapes in the World

Where Rights & Freedoms are Respected

One of the Best Qualities of Life Anywhere in the World

One of the Best Health Care Systems in the World

Welcoming to Immigrants

A Leader in Working for Peace and Human Rights Around the World

If I Had a Choice I would Move to Canada

Canadians are sexy

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Redemption: So, now you get a second chance…

How well do you know Canada and your fellow Canadians?

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What province or region has the most fire detectors, fire escapes and fire extinguishers?

Atlantic Canada

What province or region is most likely to have used a mobile device in the bathroom – and most likely to scoop it out if it falls in?

Prairies

What province or region says that their family is like a ‘well oiled machine’ in getting up and going in the morning?

Quebec

Oh Canada, eh?

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Province or region most likely to believe that Aliens have come down from another planet and are actually walking among us, disguised,

today?

AlbertaCanadian city where women are most satisfied with their love life,

body image, their personal health and satisfaction overall?

Oh Canada, eh?

Toronto…

WHERE DARRELL LIVES

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