Post on 27-Dec-2015
presentationA
Mobile Source Control Strategies
presentationA
OverviewOverview
• Reductions from national controlsReductions from national controls
• Reduction potential of local Reduction potential of local mobile controlsmobile controls
• PerspectivePerspective
presentationA
Mobile Emission Reductions Mobile Emission Reductions from National Controlsfrom National Controls
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2007 2010
VOC
NOx
PM2.5
54%
54%
51%
40%
37%
46%
presentationA
Additional Mobile ControlsAdditional Mobile Controls
• Fuel ChangesFuel Changes
• I/M ProgramsI/M Programs
• Transportation Control MeasuresTransportation Control Measures
presentationA
Mobile VOC Reductions from Mobile VOC Reductions from National ControlsNational Controls
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2010
Year
54%
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
presentationA
Additional VOC Reductions Additional VOC Reductions With I/M ProgramsWith I/M Programs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2010
Base
IM IdleIM 240
IM OBD
4% 6% 12%
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
presentationA
Mobile NOx Reductions from Mobile NOx Reductions from National ControlsNational Controls
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2010
Year
54%
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
presentationA
Additional NOx Reductions Additional NOx Reductions With I/M ProgramsWith I/M Programs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2010
Base
IM IdleIM 240
IM OBD
Year
0% 3% 7%
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
presentationA
I/M Policy IssuesI/M Policy Issues
• Low reductions from non-OBD Low reductions from non-OBD programsprograms
• Assume OBD is effective technologyAssume OBD is effective technology
• OBD benefits may be overestimatedOBD benefits may be overestimated
• How does this compare to other How does this compare to other options?options?
presentationA
Transportation Control Transportation Control MeasuresMeasures
(TCM)(TCM)
presentationA
VMT and Emissions TrendsVMT and Emissions Trends
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
VOC
NOx
VMT
Mob
ile
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
Year
VM
T (
mil
lion
s/d
ay)
presentationA
Additional VOC Reductions Additional VOC Reductions With VMT ChangesWith VMT Changes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2002 2010
Base
Zero Growth
Year
Mob
ile
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
4.7%
presentationA
Additional NOx Reductions Additional NOx Reductions With VMT ChangesWith VMT Changes
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2010
Base
Zero Growth
Year
Mob
ile
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
4.8%
presentationA
Additional VOC Reductions Additional VOC Reductions With Doubling of TransitWith Doubling of Transit
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2002 2010
Base
Zero VMT Growth
Double Transit
Year
Mob
ile
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
4.7% 1.0%
presentationA
Additional NOx Reductions Additional NOx Reductions With Doubling of TransitWith Doubling of Transit
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2010
Base
Zero VMT Growth
Double Transit
Year
Mob
ile
Em
issi
ons
(1,0
00s
kg/
day
)
4.5% 0.4%
presentationA
TCM Policy IssuesTCM Policy Issues
• Projected benefits less certainProjected benefits less certain
• Emissions show little sensitivity to Emissions show little sensitivity to VMT changesVMT changes
• Success dependent on behavioral Success dependent on behavioral changes – Enforceable?changes – Enforceable?
• Regulatory vs. voluntaryRegulatory vs. voluntary
presentationA
ConclusionsConclusions
• National controls are producing National controls are producing major reductions major reductions
• Additional reductions from local Additional reductions from local controls are small in comparisoncontrols are small in comparison
• I/M (OBD) benefits in similar range I/M (OBD) benefits in similar range as fuelsas fuels
• Changes in VMT have diminishing Changes in VMT have diminishing impactsimpacts
presentationA
Decision-Making QuestionsDecision-Making Questions
• What are we trying to accomplish?What are we trying to accomplish?
• Are there common denominators in the Are there common denominators in the answer to that question?answer to that question?
• Is there “value-added” by Is there “value-added” by implementing some programs in multi-implementing some programs in multi-state areas?state areas?