Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

Predicting the consequences of climate change

by understanding the past: BRAN2.1 David Griffin

Peter Oke, Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)

and Gary Brassington (BMRC)

20ºC in winter? Global warming?

Just a localised anomaly, really.If not global warming, then what?

#2: 15ºC in summer? Please explain

Watch this cyclonic eddy develop:

14 Feb

15 Feb

16 Feb

17 Feb

18 Feb

19 Feb

20 Feb

21 Feb

22 Feb

23 Feb

Argo profile in centre of cold eddy:

Temperature

What do these events have in common?

• Both are consequences of a stronger EAC

• Very warm east of Tasmania last summer

• more on the way?

• what will it mean?

Puerulus settlement, SA and Tas:

observed

No, we’re not there yet.

• Annual cycle OK.

• Inter-annual variability is not.

• The cause of five-fold changes to recruitment success for Southern Rock Lobster remains a mystery

Conclusions

• There’s never been so much interest in the future

• We don’t know what’s going to happen

• science does not yet have the answers

• spotting wrong answers is often easier

• we have produced BRAN to foster ecological research

• please use it

Thank you

BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.010/1992-12/2004 1/2003-6/2006 10/1992-12/2006Assimilates along-track SLA, T(Z), S(z)

Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE - SST

Assimilates along-track SLA, T(z), S(z), AMSRE – SST or Rey 1/4o OISST

no rivers no rivers Seasonal climatological river fluxes

SSS restoring (30 days); SST restoring (30 days)

no SSS or SST restoring SSS restoring (30 days in deep water only); no SST restoring

ECMWF surface heat, freshwater and momentum fluxes

ECMWF surface heat and freshwater fluxes; and momentum fluxes from 10 m winds

3 day assimilation cycle 7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 1 day relaxation

7 day assimilation cycle with 1 day nudging using 0.25 day relaxation

A few bugs No known bugs (yet) Fingers crossed

BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0BRAN1.0 BRAN1.5 BRAN2.0

Warm bias No temperature bias

Noticeably discontinuous in time (jumpy, shocks etc)

Acceptably continuous (can track features easily)

SST errors ~ 2-3 degrees SST errors ~ 0.6-0.8 degrees

SLA errors ~ 15 cm SLA errors ~ 8 cm

Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS

Multivariate assimilation system:

sea level obs correct h,T,S,U,V

Single point assimilation …

Bluelink Ocean Data Assimilation System, BODAS

The spatial structure of the covariances are determined by the statistics of the free-running model.

Influence of sealevel obs at x

Predicting the consequences of climate change by understanding the past: BRAN2.1

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