Post on 19-Feb-2022
Earth Rise, Bill Anders, Apollo 8
One of first photos that we humans saw of our finite, blue and small planet.
PRBO Conservation Science
Through the burning of coal, oil and gas at power plants for electricity, driving our cars, trucks and transportation…
PRBO Conservation Science
…and deforestation, especially in tropics, we have increased C02 in atmosphere beyond normal variability of past several hundred thousand years to permanently alter the future of life as we know it
In the simplest terms, the sun’s rays warm the earth and some heat escapes back into space. Water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane and other gases prevent the heat from escaping back into space by trapping it like a huge blanket or greenhouse. It is what makes life on our planet possible.
But when the atmosphere thickens with more and more greenhouse gases– it traps more heat-- gets warmer and warmer.
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
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180200220240260
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Temp. in F°
CO
2 Concentration
Today’s CO2 Concentration ~386 ppm
Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel BurningProjected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning
British Antarctic Survey results: the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, a critical greenhouse gas, is higher than it has been for at least 650,000 years. And the fastest significant increase occurred in just the past 17 years.
CO
2[p
pmv]
600,000 100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000
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Temp. in C
°
1 -0 -
-2 --3 -
2 -
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-1 -
Graph: The Climate Project
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
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500
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Temp. in C
°C
O2 C
oncentration
After 45 More Years of current energy use patterns- 600 ppmC
O2
[ppm
v]
1 -0 --1 --2 --3 -
2 -
-4 -
Today’s CO2 Concentration ~386 ppm
Graph: The Climate Project
Tom Van Sant for The Climate Project
The earth warmed by ~1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (F) during the past century andprojections range 3-12 F more over the next century. Arctic and Greenland are relatively small but have significant impact moderating Earth’s climate.
Record Breaking Loss of Sea Ice, September 16, 2007
Sea Ice ExtentSep 2005Sea Ice ExtentSep 2007
Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts NY Times October 2, 2007
Konrad Steffen, Russell Huff, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, 12-11-07
Greatest total ice melt on record
Photo: Roger J. Braithwaite,University of ManchesterSchool of Geology
GREENLAND
Increase in moulins-vertical shafts ofmelt water
Emperor and Adelie penguin populations face greater challenges in warmer West
Antarctica. See www.penguinscience.org.
Larsen Ice ShelfMarch 5, 2002Larsen Ice ShelfMarch 5, 2002
MODIS images courtesy of NASA's Terra satellite
Western Antarctica has warmed by about 5 degrees F in past few decades.
Wilkin’s Ice Shelf Breaking UpMarch 25, 2008
7x the size of Manhatten2 decades earlier than predicted in 1993
Wilkin’s Ice Shelf Breaking UpMarch 25, 2008
7x the size of Manhatten2 decades earlier than predicted in 1993
British Antarctic Survey
Land-based Ice Loss = Sea Level Rise
West Antarctic Ice Sheet
From NASA's QuikScat satellite-greatest austral summer snowmelt ever recorded; 140 subglacial lakes found as well
August 2004
Photo courtesy of Koji Fujita, Nagoya University
Glacier AX010, Nepal
Glacier melt acceleratingaround the globe
Glaciers of Tibetan Plateau predicted to be gone by 2050Feed fresh water rivers to 1.3 billion people
Warming Ocean and Lag Time
Hurricane Katrina forming, August, 2005
•Warmer ocean drives more intense weather•Vast surface layers of ocean means significant warming is in the “pipeline” even with no further CO2 emissions
PRBO Conservation Science
Rate of Climate Change
CO2 into atmosphere – 3x faster
Arctic melting – 3x faster, 30 years earlierGreenland melting – 3x fasterGlaciers melting – 2x faster Antarctica melting -- faster
Sea level rise – 2x faster
IMPLICATIONS?Evidence of Accelerated Climate Change, Climate Institute, Nov. 15, 2007, Australia
PRBO Conservation Science
Sea Level Rise, Coastal & River Flooding
•Some scientists now predict exceeding3 ft of sea level rise in the next few decades
•Results: coastal erosion. Destruction of wetlands
PRBO Conservation Science
70%- 90% loss of Sierra snow pack
CA Climate Change Center www.climatechange.ca.gov
•More precipitation as rain•Earlier snow melt•Major challenge to CA water managersand wildlife
PRBO Conservation Science
Levee Failures, Manage Water
Upper Jones Tract Levee Break in the Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaDWR Website June 2004 12, 153 Acres, 6 months cleanup, $90m
PRBO Conservation Science
Water Shortages
CA Climate Change Center www.climatechange.ca.gov
Water Storage
PRBO Conservation Science
in biological diversity
IPCC 4th Assessment Final
Report Nov. 2007Edith’s Bay Checkerspot- local populations extinct
~20–30%species face extinction with 2.7 F increase
~40–70% with 6.3 F increase
PRBO Conservation Science
Alpine Species -- Nowhere to Go
Pika or rock rabbit
• 1900- 7,800 ft
• 2004- 9,500 ft
• Functionally extinct (9 out of 25 populations in west already extinct).
UC Berkeley, Grinnell Project
PRBO Conservation Science
Drought = No Breeding
–Sonoran Desert
Crissal Thrasher
PhainopeplaPRBO findings: 2006, 2007, longest droughts on record
PRBO Conservation Science
Annual Variation in Nest Survival and SOI
0.86
0.88
0.9
0.92
0.94
0.96
0.98
-5.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0
So. Oscillation Index
Estim
ated
Dai
ly N
est
Surv
ival
Nest survivalpredicted by SOI
Model-adustedestimates by year
El Nino = Breeding Success
Song Sparrows-Cosumnes River
Low nest surival in El Nino years;More El Nino like years predicted.Implications?
PRBO Conservation SciencePossible Explanations
Earlier Spring Arrivals = ?
~ 2/3 have changes in arrival dates due to climate
Mismatch in timing between birds and food?
MacMynowski et al., Global Change Biology, 2007
Western Kingbird
Barn Swallow
Black-headed Grosbeak
Findings of Stanford University and PRBO
PRBO Conservation Science
Seabird Breeding Failure – lack of available food due to high variability in ocean conditions
0.000.250.500.751.001.251.50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Cassin’s Auklet reproductive success
Farallon National Wildlife Refuge- research by PRBO in partnership with USFWS
PRBO Conservation ScienceOther animals that also rely on krill:
Blue whales and krill swarms in Monterey Bay
Salmon
People
Puffin
PRBO Conservation Science
The future of salmon?
“Feds warn entire salmon season could be halted”March 12, 2008
San Francisco Chronicle
PRBO Conservation Science
Bottom line:Humans Rely on Healthy Ecosystems
•Food•Freshwater•Wood and Fiber•Fuel
•Recreational•Educational•Spiritual
•Climate•Flood•Disease•Water quality
PRBO Conservation Science
CHALLENGE: How to maintain biodiversity and healthy ecosystems during rapid change?
• Kick the carbon habit• Make protecting ecosystems an equal priority
PRBO Conservation Science
Global Change
Habitat degradation, biodiversity loss, loss of genetic diversity, increase in non-native species –
are all exacerbated by Climate Change
PRBO Strategy: Focal or Indicator Species
and Ecosystem approach
PRBO Conservation Science
PRBO’s Climate Change Initiativewww.prbo.org/climatechange
1- Predict changes in distribution, phenology, community structure; build on unique long term data sets
2- Develop “Early Warning” Systems to detect oncoming “thresholds”
3- Guide resource managers to enhance ecosystem resiliency, delay thresholds, soften transitions, link habitats, assist species shifts
4- Conduct monitoring to evaluate, improve (adaptive mgmt.)
5- Disseminate findings to partners, funders, policymakers, e.g., web-based tools, Climate Change Bird Conservation Plan, etc.
PRBO Conservation ScienceIdentify food web “hotspots” for protectionto ease transition to new ecological community
Black Footed Albatross
Cordell Bank
PRBO Conservation Science
Web-based Decision Support Tools- where to site Protected Areas in state & federal waters
www.prbo.org/sefimap
PRBO Conservation Science
Prioritize Wetland Conservation
Bar-tailed Godwit with satellite tagYK Delta, Alaska
Bar-tailed Godwit – satellite tagSite Connectivity of Migrating Western Sandpipers
San Francisco
Grays Harbor
YK Delta
?
Copper River
PRBO Conservation Science
Predict Future Wetlands for Protection
Assumptions:•1m sea level rise• Increased salinity
Northern SF Bay DeltaAssumptions:1 m sea level rise, increased salinity
• SEQUESTER carbon• SUSTAIN fish, birds• CLEAN water by filtering out pollutants• REDUCE flood andsea level rise impacts
PRBO Conservation Science
Where will birds occur?
current 100 years later
Predict future bird and habitat distribution
PRBO Conservation Science
Cosumnes Preserve
Restore Riparian = Water + Wildlife
Yellow Warbler
In Central Valley-Current : ~110,000 acres
Next 5 Years Goal: 10,000 morePotential: +800,000 more acres
(Central Valley Joint Venture 2006 Implementation Plan)
Increase “ecosystem services:”•Reduce flood damage•Replenish ground water•Filter our pollutants•Provide habitat for fish and birds
PRBO Conservation Science
Example:Napa River – 40% completed, working!
Napa County Flood Control and Water Conservation District
PRBO Conservation Science
Develop Climate Change Conservation Plans
California Bird Species
of FUTURE Conservation Concern
PRBO Conservation Science
South Coast WildlandsBeier, et al, South Coast Missing Linkages, 2005
California: South Coast wildlife corridor
PRBO Conservation Science
SUMMARY
• Climate change is accelerating
• “The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost.” (IPCC, Nov 2007)
• Reduce CO2 and implement conservation now
PRBO Conservation Science
Support PRBO’s Climate Change Initiative
$3.5 million – FY 2008-2011
WHAT YOU CAN DO:
PRBO Conservation Science
Hansen: 350 PPM CO2
• Stop new coal plants w/o carbon capture technology
• Phase out coal CO2 emissions to get to 1988 levels of CO2 By 2025 in developed countries; 2030 in developing countries
• Increase price of carbon; invest in clean energy solutions
• Increase CO2 sequestration– nature conservation, soil,
• Reduce other greenhouse gases
Based on new goals recommended byDr. James Hansen, Director,NASA Space Institute, January 2008http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
PRBO Conservation Science
You Have the Power- Australia
www.sustainability.vic.gov.auWhat if we could see our greenhouse gas emissions, as we did in theSF Bay oil spill in November, 2007?
PRBO Conservation Science
THANK YOU!
PRBO scientists, support staff, Board, members, and:American Bird Conservancy
AnonymousS.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation
Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management
California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game
California Bay Delta AuthorityCalifornia AudubonCalifornia Seagrant
Central Valley Joint VentureCornell Lab of Ornithology
DMARLOU FoundationRichard Grand Foundation
Giles Mead FoundationMoore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore Foundation
David and Lucile Packard FoundationNational Fish and Wildlife Foundation
National Science FoundationNOAA Fisheries, Marine Sanctuaries
Natural Resource Conservation ServiceResources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund Foundation
Riparian Habitat Joint VentureSan Francisco Bay Joint Venture
The Climate Project/ Al GoreThe Nature Conservancy
U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUSDA Forest Service