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1 DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
Powertrain
Trends and Future Potential
Dr. Johannes-Joerg
Rueger
Sr. Vice President, Robert Bosch
Panel “New Directions in Engine and Fuels”DEER Conference,
Dearborn, August 4, 2009
2
Powertrain
Trends and Future Potential
•
Global Trends –
Fighting Global Warming
•
Clean Diesel –
Neglected in the U.S. for Too Long
Agenda
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
•
Future of Powertrain
Systems –
Efficient CO2 reduction @ reasonable costs
3
Worldwide Powertrain Trends
140
CAFE LT/MDV
CAFE PC
CO2[g/km]
130
95
1,09 t weight
2008 2012
phase-in
2012-15 for
65/75/80/100% of fleet
229
183
mpg
22,324,9
27,931,2
37,241,6
55,762,3
l/100 km
10,59,4
8,47,5
6,35,7
4,23,8
GasolineDiesel
157 = 35,5 mpg
CO2
emission reduction is a world-wide topic!
Fuel Economy -
Targets EU CAFE CARB
CHINA JAPAN
km/l
9,510,6
11,913,3
15,917,5
23,826,3
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
4
Worldwide Powertrain Trends
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16 05 08 09 12 16
Diesel DI-Gasoline PFI-Gasoline
Flex-Fuel, CNG, LPG Hybrid, EV Estimation 10.2008
Production: Vehicles World by RegionMio.
25 21 23 24 27
Sou
rce:
DS
/MK
S 9
8401
44
North & LatinAmerica
Europe China Other Regions 1)
Japan &Thailand
India
Source: C/AS LTFC Cycle I 2009 Group View
17 18 15 16 1749 49 47 46 459 9 9 11 15 46 44 42 47 52 17 18 13 17 18
DI-Gasoline = Direct Injection Gasoline; EV = Electric Vehicle; CNG = Compressed Natural Gas; LPG = Liquified
Petroleum Gas
* Other Regions = Australia, Africa and Asia w/o Japan, Thailand
and China
%
Diesel Share
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Automotive Technology
5
Electric (Battery/Fuel
cell)
Hybrid
Hybrid
Electric/Battery
Electric/Fuel cell
Range extender
Range extender
Gasoline Diesel
Diesel Alternative
fuels
Gasoline
Diesel
Alternative
fuels
HCCI
Gasoline
1997 2015
Powertrains
for Passenger Cars –
TimelineWorldwide Powertrain Trends
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
6
The Future –
Not Just Electric Driving
from: Cackette, California Air Resources Board, January 2009
CARB Scenario for the Introduction of Electric Cars
95% 80% 60%share of “conventional”
technology
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
7
Powertrain
Trends and Future Potential
•
Global Trends –
Fighting Global Warming
•
Clean Diesel –
Neglected in the U.S. for Too Long
•
Future of Powertrain
Systems –
Efficient CO2 reduction @ reasonable costs
Agenda
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
8
Reduction of Vehicle CO2
-Emissions
Direct: oCCS1) Indirect:
Hydraulic
Efficiency
Mechanic
Efficiency
Thermodynamic
Efficiency
ConventionalPowertrain
Downsizing
Downspeeding
ElectrifiedPowertrain
BM
EP [b
ar]
0369
12151821242730
N [1/min]500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
380380
380
380380380
360360
360
360360360 220220220
220
220
220220
220220220220
230230230
230230230
230230
230230
230230
240240240
240240
240
240240
240240
240240
250250250
250250
250
250250
250250
250250
270270270
270
270270
270
270270
270270270 340
340340
340
340340
340340
242234
229222
213216
208204207
209
216
252
BSFC[g/kWh]
BM
EP [b
ar]
0369
12151821242730
N [1/min]500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
380380
380
380380380
360360
360
360360360 220220220
220
220
220220
220220220220
230230230
230230230
230230
230230
230230
240240240
240240
240
240240
240240
240240
250250250
250250
250
250250
250250
250250
270270270
270
270270
270
270270
270270270 340
340340
340
340340
340340
242234
229222
213216
208204207
209
216
252
BSFC[g/kWh]
Efficient Emission Reduction
Optimized DeNOx1) Optimized Conventional
Combustion System
Low NOx
-Combustionas enabler
Future of Powertrain
Systems
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
9
Potential and Limits of Electric Vehicles
0 g/
kmlo
cal e
mis
sion
s
120
g/km
*w
ell t
o w
heel
80
40
120
160
0Vehicle weight 1000 kg, Range 200 km, Battery 35 kWh
Electric vehicle technology
CO
2 em
issi
ons
[g/k
m]
* based on the German energy mix
200
Electric vehicle
–
CO2
emissions
<100
g/k
m*
with
ad
vanc
ed t
echn
olog
y
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
10
110120130140150160170180190200210220
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
CO
2 [g
/km
]
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
YearC
O2
[g/k
m]
90100110120130140150160170180
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CO
2 [g
/km
]
Gasoline
Diesel
90100110120130140150160170180190
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CO
2 [g
/km
]
Golf V 1.9 TDI
(77 kW)
Golf VI 1.6 TDI
Blue Motion (77 kW)
Future Potential of Conventional Combustion Engines
CO2 Emissions (New PCs, EU15)Small
Upper Medium
appr. 30g/km
appr. 40g/km
[1250-1470 kg]
Medium
[Inertia Weight]
Intro of DI-Diesel
Drastic gains achievable for both, Gasoline and Diesel technologySource: Polk Marketing Systems
appr. 50g/km
SUV-impact
Compact
appr. 30g/kmGolf V 1.6 FSI
(75 kW)
Passat
Variant 2.0 TDI
Blue Motion (81 kW)
Passat
Variant 1.4 TSI (90 kW)
[1470-1700 kg]
[1700-1810 kg][1810-1930 kg]
Passat
Variant 1.6 FSI (75 kW)
Passat
Variant 1.9 TDI (77 kW)
Golf VI 1.4 TSI
(90 kW)
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
11
Gasoline
CO2
Emissions for Diesel & Gasoline Technologies
Diesel0
40
80
160
200
-29%-22% -39%
2.0l
200 Nm1.4l
210 Nm1.1l
200 Nm1.1l
200+140 Nm2.0l
340 Nm1.6l
340 Nm1.6l
340 Nm1.2l
~300 Nm
G0 G1 G2 G2H D0 D1 D2 D3
Gx
Dx
Gas
olin
e pa
ckag
esD
iese
l pa
ckag
es
Hybrid
1.2l300+140 Nm
D3H
Hybrid
182
CO2
[g/km]
142130
112
144
112105
9786
-53%-30% -45% -49% -58%
-22%
-28%
-33%
-40%120
Compact Class, NEDC
Gasolines
AND Clean Diesels provide potentials for further CO2
reduction
Future Potential of Conventional Combustion Engines
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
12
Evolution in Clean Diesel & Gasoline Technology
1) turbo-charged with downsizing and var. valve timing (VVT);
2) max. potential w/ downsizing, transmission optimization; 3) Start/Stop w/ recup., thermo management (ThM), Decos; 4) Start/Stop w/ recup., combustion optimization; 5) Battery 1.0 kWh; 6) ThM, down speeding, downsizing, T/C optimization; 7) CO2
optimization; 8) VVL in 2-
step, down speeding, downsizing; / costs 2014 / * Further Clean Diesel evolution steps D1 & D3 are not shown
Gasoline Clean DieselPkg. Description Displ. & Torq. Pkg.* Description Displ. & Torq.
G0 Port fuel injection (PFI) 2.0 l
200 NmD0 Common rail system, turbo 2.0 l
340 Nm
G1 Direct injection (DI)1), turbo, downsizing, start/stop3), thermal management
1.4 l
210 NmD2 + oCCS
(opt. Combustion)+ start/stop 4)
+ thermal management 7)
+ downsizing ,+ close PI
1.6 l
340 Nm
D4 + NOx
-EGT 1.6 l
340 Nm
+ downsizing
+ var. valve lifting (VVL)8)1.1 l
200 Nm+ downsizing 1.2 l
300 Nm
G3 + hybrid 2,5) 1.1 l
200+140 NmD5 + hybrid 2,5) 1.2 l
300 + 140 Nm
Medium class car (1 400 kg), 100 kW, MT5 (manual transmission), MVEG-cycle, EU6
G0
G1
G2
D0
D1
D2
D3
G2H D3H
Future Potential of Conventional Combustion Engines
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
13
Fuel Savings vs. Additional Component Costs
Additional OEM component costs [in €]
Fuel
sav
ings
[in
€]
Bubble size represents
CO2
emission
Clean Diesel
Gasoline
Premise: costs over 3 years at 15 000 km p.a., average fuel prices in Germany of 2006-2008: Diesel 1.20 €/l, Gasoline 1.33€/l
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500 Gain
LossG1
G2H
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000
G2
D0
D1D2D3
G0
Hybrid
500
3 000
3 500
D3H
Hybrid
-27% CO2
-33% CO2
FE enhancement for Clean Diesels & Gasolines
follows similar gradient
Efficient CO2 Reduction @ Reasonable Costs
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
Robert Bosch GmbH reserves all rights even in the event of industrial property rights. We reserve all rights of disposal such as copying and passing on to third parties.
Automotive Technology
14
Powertrain
Trends and Future Potential
•
Global Trends –
Fighting Global Warming
•
Clean Diesel –
Neglected in the U.S. for Too Long
Agenda
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
Robert Bosch GmbH reserves all rights even in the event of industrial property rights. We reserve all rights of disposal such as copying and passing on to third parties.
Automotive Technology
•
Future of Powertrain
Systems –
Efficient CO2 reduction @ reasonable costs
15
Real American Driving Profile
Study based on GPS-
monitored Californian mid-size sedan owners:
Median Californian driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles
Study based on GPS-
monitored Californian mid-size sedan owners:Median Californian
driving intensity is between highway and US06 cycles
Clean Diesel –
Fuel Economy and Real-world Performance
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
16
•
CAFÉ
is 55% city, 45% highway
•
tax incentives are 100% city
•
energy intensity of real world driving profile in average is comparable to highway cycle and beyond
Emissions follow real-world driving, not test cycles
0
10
20
30
40
50
city highway US06
mpgDiesel
+23%
vs.
Hybrid
Hybrid
+10%
vs.
Diesel
cycle based calculation
Gas
olin
eH
ybrid
Die
sel
Diesel
+31% vs.
HybridG
asol
ine
Hyb
ridD
iese
l
Gas
olin
eH
ybrid
Die
sel
Source: simulation based on Mercedes E-class, 1700kg,
combustion 110kW, electrical 31kW, Li-Ion battery, 6-speed AT
Further potential of Clean Diesel with e.g. Start-Stop not even considered
real-world driving
Clean Diesel –
Fuel Economy and Real-world Performance
source: auto motor sport, 2008
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Automotive Technology
17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Year [CY]
Fuel
Pric
e [U
SD]
Diesel Gasoline
Fuel Prices –
Parallel Upwards Trend
EIA Diesel/Gasoline Price History and Forecast
Current (06/08/09) national average D/G = -
0.18 USD
Today
Source: EIA
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Clean Diesel –
Prevailing in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
Auction Results (Example Jetta
TDI / Prius)
Source: Martec
/ Mannheim Auto Auction
VW Jetta
TDIToyota Prius
5 year / 68k miles
16%
19%
18%
Res
idua
l val
ue [%
]
Mileage [miles]* auction data from 2006 to Mid 2008
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
19
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Diesel = Gasoline - 25 ctDiesel = GasolineDiesel = Gasoline +25 ct
TCO example VW Jetta
TDI
2
Fuel
Pric
e [U
SD
]
Mileage [miles]
Current Price: 2.49 USDPrice delta: 0.18 USD
Break Even at 6500 miles/year
Source: Martec
/ Edmunds
Clean Diesel –
Prevailing in Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
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Automotive Technology
20
Powertrain
Trends and Future Potential
Dr. Johannes-Joerg
Rueger
Sr. Vice President, Robert Bosch
Panel “New Directions in Engine and Fuels”DEER Conference,
Dearborn, August 4, 2009
DS/NE-NA | August 4, 2009 | ©
Robert Bosch GmbH reserves all rights even in the event of industrial property rights. We reserve all rights of disposal such as copying and passing on to third parties.
Automotive Technology