Post on 23-Feb-2016
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POST INDUS FLOOD RESEARCHPresentation toBoard Members of RSPN - Revisited
by Fawad KhanInstitute of Social and Environmental Transition - Pakistan
Hotspot: This map shows areas of relatively high pressure (red) over Russia and the resulting low pressure (blue) over Pakistan in August 2010
This map shows how rainfall built up over Pakistan from the beginning of July through to the end of August
S. N. City Rainfall in mm Rainfall in inch Province1 Risalpur *468.0 18.5 KP2 Cherat *384.0 15.1 KP3 Saidu sharif *338.0 13.3 KP4 Peshawar *226.1 8.9 KP5 Lower Dir 297 11.7 KP6 Kohat 127.3 5 KP7 Balakot 208.7 8.2 KP8 Upper Dir 309 12.1 KP9 Dera Ismail Khan 83.3 3.3 KP10 Loarhi Dopatta 346 13.6 KP11 Rawalakot 297 11.7 Azad Kashmir12 Muzaffarabad 292 11.5 Azad Kashmir13 Pattan 242 9.5 Azad Kashmir14 Islamabad 394 15.5 Azad Kashmir
15 Murree 373 14.6 Capital Teritory16 Kamra 308 12.1 Punjab17 Lahore 288 11.3 Punjab18 Mianwali *271 10.6 Punjab19 Jhelum 269 10.6 Punjab20 Sialkot 255 10 Punjab21 Csyhrabwaka 222 8.7 Punjab22 Rawalpinda 219 8.6 Punjab
*indicates new recordSource: Annual Flood Report 2010, Government of Pakistan, Ministry of Water and Power.
Table 1: recorded Rainfall During the four Day wet Spell of July 27 to July 30, 2010
IDRC-DFID funded research with RSPN and member RSPs
Four main outputs
• Links between services and recovery
•Generalized vulnerability index
•Demography (gender) and recovery
•Desk study on recovery process
Conceptual Framework
• Post flood vulnerability/resilience analysis• The ability of a social or ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining
the same basic structure and ways of functioning, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to stress and change (IPCC WG2 2007: 880).
• Recovery rates
• Systems and access to systems• Eco-system services (air, water, forest, pastures etc.)• Gateway services (water, health, education, communication, finance etc.)• Higher level systems (institutions, governance etc.)
• Identifying critical systems for building resilience• Adaptive capacities
Site Selection• Chitral in
High Mountains
• Charsadda in Piedmont area
• Dadu in low plains
• Tharparkar in Desert/Coastal areas
Methodology• Identify under-serviced areas/populations using census.• In post disaster situation identify vulnerable and resilient
through recovery status (SLD/survey)• Document service availability differential between resilient and
vulnerable (quantity, quality, time)• Identify critical services that build resilience through statistical
testing• Shared learning process to determine causation
Results (Access)DISTRICT MITHI (desert) DADU (plain) CHARSADDA (piedmont/plain)
SHISHIKOH (mountainous)
Bhakuo Haryar Shahani Seelaro Agra Kharkai Madaklasht/Gouch
SERVICE
Health
✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious
leaders, Veterinary clinic
Info/Communication ✔ TV
✔ Post office, TV, Wireless loop°
Fuel/Energy ✔ Electricity ✔ LPG ✔ Electricity
Sanitation ✔ ✔ Latrine/ Toilet
Water supply ✔ Hand
pump ✔ Piped to house°,
water course°
Mobility ✔ access to
main rd ✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd
Transportation ✔ ✔ Car°, 4X4°, public
transportation°
Credit services ✔ Banks ✔
Shopkeeper
✔ Banks, community/village
organization, shopkeepers
Social Protection
✔ Relatives/Nei
ghbors° ✔ NGOs°
DISTRICT MITHI (desert) DADU (plain) CHARSADDA (piedmont/plain)
SHISHIKOH (mountainous)
Bhakuo Haryar Shahani Seelaro Agra Kharkai
Health ✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary clinic
Housing ✔ Marla(katcha)
✔ Pucca no. of rooms
✔ Marla (Katcha)
Electricity ✔ ✔
Info/Communication
✔ TV ✔ Post office, TV, Wireless loop°
Fuel/Energy ✔ LPG ✔ Electricity
Sanitation ✔ ✔ Latrine/ Toilet
Water supply
✔ Hand pump ✔ Piped to house°, water course°
Mobility ✔ access to main rd
✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd
Transportation
✔ ✔ Car°, 4X4°, pulic transportation°
Credit services
✔ Banks ✔ Shopkeepers ✔ Banks, community/village organization, shopkeepers
Social Protection
✔ Relatives/Neighbors°
✔ NGOs°
Land ownership
✔ Farmland area
✔ Years owned
Results (duration of use)
CHITRALSERVICE ACCESS
DURATION OF USE
Health
✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary
clinic
✔ BHU/RHC°, NGO clinic, Religious leaders, Veterinary clinic
Info/Communication✔ Post office, TV, Wireless
loop°
✔Post office, TV, Wireless loop°
Fuel/Energy✔ Electricity
✔Electricity
Sanitation✔ Latrine/ Toilet
✔ Latrine/ Toilet
Water supply✔ Piped to house°, water
course°
✔ Piped to house°, water course°
Mobility✔ access to main rd, distance
to main rd
✔ access to main rd, distance to main rd
Transportation✔ Car°, 4X4°, public
transportation°
✔ Car°, 4X4°, pulic transportation°
Credit services✔ Banks, community/village
organization, shopkeepers
✔ Banks, community/village organization, shopkeepers
Land ✔ Years owned
Electricity as a Gateway service• Communities in Chitral in a maladaptive cycle• Flash floods• Commercial logging
• Remarkable socio-economic outcomes• Education• Skills/Computers• Employment• Micro-credit and enterprise• Communication
• Micro Hydel in one village (12+ yrs)
• Ban on commercial logging
CHARSADDA
ACCESS DURATION OF USE
SERVICE Agra Kharkai Agra Kharkai
Health✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
Info/Communication✔ TV
✔ TV
Fuel/Energy✔ LPG
✔ LPG
Sanitation✔
✔
Water supply
Mobility✔ access to main rd
✔ access to main rd
Transportation✔
✔
Credit services✔ Shopkeeper
✔ Shopkeepers
Agra's timeline of sanitation usage
60 55 52 38 34 30 30 22 14 12 11 5 4 20
4.2
8.4
12.614.7
21 21
25.2
29.4
35.7
39.9
44.1 44.1
48.3
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2
14.3
17.9
21.5
28.6
Recovered Not recovered
DADU
DISTRICT
ACCESS Duration
IShahani Seelaro Shahani Seelaro
Fuel/Energy
Sanitation
Water supply✔ Hand pump
✔ Hand pump
Mobility
Transportation
Credit services
✔ Banks
✔ Banks
Agricultural land
✔ Farmland area
Shahani's timeline of hand-pump usage
35 30 20 12 10 10 5 4
28.6
42.9 42.9 42.9
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
0.0 0.05.3
10.6 10.6
47.452.7
58.0
Recovered Not recovered
MITHI ACCESS DURATION
SERVICE Bhakuo Haryar Bhakuo Haryar
Health
✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
✔ BHU/RHC, Lady health worker/ health worker/ visitor°
Info/Communication
Fuel/Energy ✔ Electricity ✔ Electricity
Sanitation
Water supply
Mobility
Transportation
Credit services
Social Protection✔ Relatives/Neighbors° ✔ NGOs° ✔
Relatives/Neighbors° ✔ NGOs°
Conclusions• Services do differentiate between fast and slow recovery
• These services are dependent on physical (geographic) and social conditions (level of development)
• No generic solution for adaptation
• These can be methodically identified for each area
• Development interventions can increase resilience for communities vulnerable to climate change
THANK YOU