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Portable HRM Station Value Verification Package “ORMVERIF”

Sultan Salim AL-YahyaiFauzi Bader Al-BusaidiKhalid Khamis Al-Jahwari Directorate General of Civil Aviation and Meteorology, Sultanate of Oman

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Location of Oman

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Aim of the Project

MONITORING THE BEHAVIOR OF

THE MODELS

HIGHLIGHTS THE STRENTHS & WEAKMESSESOF THE MODELS

Try To TUNE THE MODEL

TO EVALUATE THE FORECASTS OF OMAN REGIONAL MODEL (ORM).

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Design Issues Stations Grouping

Station with similar topographical features Costal Station Actual Station height – model grid point height <= X m

Verification Scheme Most representative Grid

Point.

Interpolation of the surrounding Grid Points

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Design Issues

T 2m ( C ) Max temp. 2m ( C ) Min Temp. 2m ( C ) TD 2m ( C ) MSL Pressure (hPa) FF 10m ( knots ) DD 10m (degrees).

Total Presp. Amount of low clouds DPD

Continuous Elements Categorical Elements

Elements to be verified

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Design Issues

OBS

utc 00 12 00 12 00 12 00

day A-3 A-3 A-2 A-2 A-1 A-1 A

12h fct24h fct

36h fct

48h fct

60h fct

72h fct0h fct

Model run

Forecast Range to be verified

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Design Issues

OBS Quality Control

1) Elements value thresholds

2) Comparing OBS with model first guess

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Design Issues

Hit rate with a margin of error Bias Root Mean Squared Error

(RMSE):

OBS

YesNo

FCTYesab

NocdHit rateProbability of detection(POD) False Alarm Rate (FAR)Threat Score (TS)Frequecy bias(FB)Heidke Skill Score ( HSS )

Continuous Elements Categorical Elements

Statistics to be used

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Implementation

ormverif

NWP machine

DMO (FCT)

MOS

OBSMSS

Windows based

My SQL ODBC

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Main Menu

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Averaging Data Plotter

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Table Viewer

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Future Work

Implementing the Interpolation verif. Schema Superimposing the Results of the verif. For more than

one model Verifying the upper levels data Verifying the Wave Model

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ORMVERIF Availability

Package available on request for WMO members: Brazilian navy, UAE Met., Vietnam met., malaysia met.

User Manual Tech. Documentation

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Thank You