Stabilizing India’s population “easier said than done”

Population Stabilization Fortnight05 Feb to 19 Feb 2014

• Birth of a child is most beautiful creation of god !

• Thereby, the population growth is purely a natural phenomena.

• Human beings evolved under conditions of high mortality due to famines, accidents, illnesses, infections and war and therefore the relatively high fertility rates were essential for species survival.

• In spite of the relatively high fertility rates it took all the time, from evolution of mankind to the middle of the 19th century, for the global population to reach one billion.

• The twentieth century witnessed a rapid improvement in health care technologies and services all over the world;

• as a result there was a steep fall in the mortality and steep increase in longevity.

• The global population has undergone a fourfold increase in a hundred years and has crossed 6 billion in 2011.

• With total population exceeding one billion mark, India is the second most populous country in the world.

• This is despite the more than sixty years of family planning efforts since 1952.

• In the 2011 census, India’s population totalled just over 1.21 billion people.

• According to United Nations projections, the figure could reach 1.6 billion by 2050.

• India is thus expected to overtake China by 200 million people by year 2050.

• The Indian government is concerned to control population growth, many years back and

• a population policy was introduced for this purpose.

• However, population stabilization is still a long way off in India,

• unlike in China, where the population is expected to level off by 2030.

• Although population growth has slowed considerably,

• But, India has accumulated such potential for growth (Demographic Inertia) that the target of population stabilization has had to be regularly deferred.

• The National Population Policy 2000 forecast stabilization by 2045.

• In this long span of population stabilization, numerous policy measures have been attempted.

• There is now universal awareness of the need for the methods of family planning.

Population stabilization week

• We are celebrating the Population Stabilization week from 5th Feb 2014 to 19 Feb 2014 with objectives -

- To spread awareness among people about family planning programmes.

- To give impetus to the family planning services running in the country.

World’s Population• The world experienced dramatic population growth

during the 20th century. • The number of inhabitants doubling from 3 to 6

billion (2% per annum) between 1960 and 2000.

India in World’s Population• Total population of India is 1.21 billion in 2011.• Males (51.5%), Female (48.4%)• India occupies 2nd rank among the world's most populated

countries.

• India shares 17.5% of world population.• Population of India + China > 1/3 rd of World’s population.

India in World’s Population

Population of India: 1901-2011

• India, has very rapid population growth from 238.4 million in 1901 to 1.21 billion in 2011.

Year of ‘Big divide’ - 1921

Growth Rate of India

•Growth Rate •Decadal Growth Rate

• India has a annual growth rate of 1.4% per year.• Decadal growth rate of 17.64% (2001 - 2011).• Male: (17.19%), Female: (18.12%).

Growth Rate: India vs World

• Growth rate of India is still higher than the World’s average growth rate.

• Very high compare to growth rate of China.

Population share of States: India 2011

• Uttar Pradesh is most populous state in country.• Shares 16% population of India.• Followed by Maharashtra (9%) and Bihar (9%).

Top five & bottom five states/UT in India(by population size)

Population Density in India • Average density of population in India is 382 per sq. km.• Highest density of population in Bihar & West Bengal.

Population of Chhattisgarh• Population of Chhattisgarh is 2,55,40,196. (2.55 million)• Shares 2.11% of population of India. (2.03% in 2001). • Rank - 16th among the most populated states in India.• (Ranked 17th in 2001).

Chhattisgarh vs India

Growth Rate: Chhattisgarh• Annual exponential growth rate is 2.06 %. (2001-2011).• Decadal growth rate has increased from 18.27% (1991-

2001) to 22.59% (2001-2011).

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN INDIA

• Over the six decades, there has been rapid fall in Crude Death Rate (CDR) from 25.1 in 1951 to 7.2 in 2011.

• But, less steep decline in the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) from 40.8 in 1951 to 22.1 in 2011.

• The annual exponential growth rate has been over 2% in the period 1961-1990.

• During the nineties the decline in CBR has been steeper than that in the (CDR) and consequently, the annual population growth rate has fallen below 2%.

• The rate of decline in population growth is likely to be further accelerated during the next decade.

• The changes in the population growth rates have been relatively slow, steady and sustained.

• As a result the country was able to achieve a relatively gradual change in the population numbers and age structure

AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION OF INDIA

• 1950- India had large number of young population, with many children and few elderly;.

• Moving forward in time, the number of working-age persons increased, relative to children and the elderly.

Age structure:

• 65 years and over: 5.5 % • 15 years to 64 years: 64.9 % • 0 years to 14 years: 29.7 %

• The age structure of a population can have a large effect on economic growth.

• Changes in mortality, creates changes in the age structure of India’s population.

• India’s demographic profile has begun to evolve in a way that is potentially more favourable to economic growth.

INDIA V/S CHINA

• China’s population growth is only 0.7% per year.

• (India with 1.6 billion, will surpass China with respect to population size in 2050)

• China’s campaign of “later, longer, fewer” and its one-child policy (beginning in 1979) led to a decline in fertility.

• India had 66% higher income per capita than China in 1980,

• but by the early 1990s China overtook India.

• In 2008, the situation was reversed, with per capita income in China double that of India.

• Rapid rise in the ratio of China’s working-age to non-working-age population also contributed to its extremely fast economic growth since 1980.

• The corresponding population ratio in India has grown more slowly.

60 YEARS OF “FAMILY PLANNING” IN INDIA

• In 1951, a few years after independence, the Indian government introduced its first five-year plan, which already referred to a “population problem”.

• “Rapid population growth” was considered an obstacle to the country’s development.

• At the time, India had a population of 361 million and annual population growth of 1.25% (between 1941 and 1951).

• The Government of India introduced a family planning programme to make cheap and effective contraception, available to all categories of the population.

• Emphasis was also placed on raising the marriage age of girls in a bid to reduce fertility.(the average age of girls at marriage was 15.6 at the time)

• Sterilization was promoted, and abortion was legalized for women in the early 1970s.

• The policy of providing contraceptives soon proved inadequate.

• Opening family planning clinics was not sufficient to bring down fertility.

• By the mid-1970s, family planning had clearly failed.

• The population was growing at a rate of 2.2% per year.

• (at that rate, a population will double in 32 years).

• In 1975, the prime minister, Indira Gandhi, instigated emergency rule in India and,

• in 1976, a “national population policy” was introduced and made a national priority.

• Although the average number of children born to each woman had started to fall, the population was still increasing at the same pace.

• Compulsory sterilization for mothers of three or more children was considered.

• The zeal of some states, resulted in 8.3 million sterilizations in 1976- 1977, compared with a forecast of only 4.3 million.

Annual Number of Sterilization:1955-2005

• The Congress Party’s electoral defeat in 1977 was, due to the unpopularity of forced sterilizations,

• It appeared to signal the end of an active population policy.

• The “family planning” programme became a “family welfare” programme, and

• reversible methods of contraception were encouraged.

• Returned to power in 1980, having learned the lessons of her electoral demise,

• Indira Gandhi asserted that, in order to achieve the target of family limitation,

“persuasion” was preferable to “coercion”.

• She declared-“Family planning must come from the people, by the people and for the people,” .

• Between 1970 and 2000, the percentage of couples of childbearing age practising birth control measures rose fivefold, from 10% to 50%.

• Strikingly, although the use of oral contraceptives and intrauterine devices is officially encouraged,

• three-quarters of couples opt for sterilization.

• The number of sterilizations increased sharply from the start of the 1980s, then stabilized at between 4 million and 5 million per year.

• Over the same period, sterilization has become female-only method. (98% in the late 1990s).

• Despite a decline in fertility rate of India from the 1960s onwards,• but it was less steep than the China.

Fertility trends in India and China since 1950 and projections to 2050

India’s population was multiplied by 2.8 between year1951 and 2001.

• In 2000, India introduced a new population policy, with new targets of replacement-level fertility by 2010 and population stabilization by 2045.

• But those targets, like the previous ones, are thwarted by demographic inertia.

THE BIRTH RATE IS FALLING MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED

• It would be wrong to claim that India’s population policy has failed completely.

• because population growth has accelerated in spite of family planning programmes.

• Demographic inertia must be taken into account.

• The birth rate did fall in the 1970s and 1980s, but since the death rate also fell, the growth rate did not come down.

• The target of rapid population stabilization is hampered by India’s young population.

• Even though fertility is falling, the number of people of childbearing age is increasing, so the number of births remain high.

National Population Policy 2000:

• Aware of demographic inertia, the Indian government set different kinds of targets with different horizons in the National Population Policy 2000: -

• an immediate target of meeting needs for contraception, healthcare infrastructure, staff and services to improve reproductive health;

• a medium-term target of fertility at the replacement level (2010); and

• a long-term target of population stabilization (2045).

Conclusions

• India’s population will inevitably continue to grow for at least 50 years, increasing by a half over the period.

• The country must also struggle with persistent poverty, widespread unemployment, and severe environmental damage.

• Improving life for the whole population – not just the urban middle class – and

• providing decent living conditions for an additional 500 million people by 2050 is the formidable sustainable development challenge for the India.