Politics of Energy – Week 4 & 5

Global Energy Shifts and Emerging New Energy Order

The Global Energy System

The totality of individual energy systems , which

are the interconnected network of production ,

transportation and consumption.

EU energy system in 2020-30

EU energy system in 2040-50

Global Energy Shifts

Remarks on Energy Transitions/Shifts

-Outcome of endeavor to increase the

efficiency and life standards

-Not possible to prevent energy

transitions, but “the timing” of the

widespread usage can be changed.

Modern Energy Systems

1) Coal based energy system ( late 19th cent – early

20th cent)

2) Oil based energy system ( second half of the

20th cent - )

3) Towards a natural gas and renewable (hydrogen

in particular) based energy system (?)

Key Conceptual for Global Energy Shifts

1) Geopolitical rivalries

2) Corporate competition

3) Social Conflict

4) The process of hegemonic sequence

5) Human Agency

1) Geopolitical rivalries

- Military strenght tied to economic health of a given state, political leaders have often been intervened in commercial matters, particulary with strategic significance such as energy resources.

- The nexus of industrialization of warfare and energy.

- Interventions by an era’s most powerful states have always played a crucial role in successful energy transitions.

Kaiser Wilhelm II greatly expanded the navy, and enlarged its mission. The key leader was Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz (1849–1930), who greatly expanded the size and quality of the navy, while adopting the sea power theories of American strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan. The result was a naval arms race with Britain as the German navy grew to become one of the greatest maritime forces in the world, second only to the Royal Navy.

The size and power of battleships grew rapidly before, during, and after World War I: a result of competitive shipbuilding among a number of naval powers, including Britain and Germany, brought to an end by the Washington Naval Treaty and Treaty of Versailles.(wikipedia)

‘If we overcame the difficulties and surmounted the risks, we should be able to raise the whole power and efficiency of the navy to a definitely higher level; better ships, better crews, higher economies, more intense forms of war power—in a word, mastery itself was the prize of the venture.’ (Churchill,1923,136)

The conversion of the British Navy under Churchill to oil from coal meant a high risk strategy as England had abundant coal but no then-known oil. It secured a major concession from the Shah of Persia in the early 1900’s. The Baghdad rail link was increasingly seen in London as a threat to precisely this oil security. The British response to the growing German disruption of the European balance of power after the 1890’s was to carefully craft a series of public and secret alliances with France and with Russia—former rivals—to encircle Germany…The dynamic of the rise of German assertiveness, including in addition to the Baghdad rail, the decision in 1900 to build a modern navy over two decades that could rival England’s, set the stage for the outbreak of a war in August 1914 whose real significance was a colossal and tragic struggle for who would succeed the ebbing power of the British Empire.(Engdahl,2007)

2) Corporate competition

• Innovations in the world-economy are also propelled forward by competition among private firms for dominance in key energy sectors.

Seven Sisters

New Seven Sisters

3) Social Conflict

4) Hegemonic Squence

‘ Periods of more profound change in global energy systems occur when hegemonic stability breaks down and the pressures of warfare, economic crisis, and social conflict can no longer be contained’ (Podobnik, 2008,9)

Source: http://akarlin.com/2011/06/future-superpowers/

Hegemonic Rise

1) Political strength, military force, and superior national power

2) Large and growing economy. Usually, unrivaled supremacy in at least one leading economic or technological sector

3) A hegemon must commit to the system4) Political control over world energy resources

Country shares of world GDP, 1820-2006

5) Human Agency

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/oct/12/climate-activists-campaigns-greenpeace

Thanks