Please Stand By forJohn Thomas

Wednesday, October 10, 2012, San Francisco, CAGlobal Trading Dispatch

The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Treading Water”

Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader

San Francisco, October 10, 2012

www.madhedgefundtrader.com

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2012 Schedule

October 19 Washington DCOctober 26 San FranciscoNovember 7 HoustonNovember 8 OrlandoJanuary 3, 2013 Chicago

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San FranciscoOctober 26

Washington, DCOctober 19

Trade Alert PerformanceNew All Time High!

*October MTD +0.39%

*2012 YTD +20.5%, Beating the Dow by 9.6%

*First 98 weeks of Trading + 60.6%*Versus +10.9% for the Dow AverageA 49.7% outperformance of the index87 out of 125 closed trades profitable

69.6% success rate on closed trades

Portfolio Review

Mad Hedge Fund TraderTrading BookAsset Class BreakdownRisk Adjusted Basis

current capital at risk

Risk On

(GLD) $157-$162 Calls Spread 10.00%(GLD) $160-$165 Calls Spread 10.00%(GOOG) $650-$680 Call spread 10.00%(SLV) $28-$31 call spread 10.00%(AAPL) $525-$575 call spread 10.00%

Risk Off

(SPY) $150-$155 bear put spread -20.00%(CORN) $50-$55 put spread -10.00%(USO) $35-$32.50 put spread -10.00%

total net position 10.00%

Performance Since Inception-New All Time High+33.1% Average Annualized Return

Testimonial

I have been religiously following your letter for the past four years. I value your opinions, knowing they are truly independent and not beholden to a mutual fund or investment bank. Your ability to recognize, and put out actionable advice during market extremes is unique in my experience.Your recent (TLT) long recommendation was a great example. On the heels of the sharp August sell-off, when CNBC and company worried (TLT) was going to 112 and points below, you advised going long based on your IRA account suggestions, I chose the (TLT) October, 2012 $122 calls at $2.76 and then sold them at $4.90 only eight days later for a 77% profit.

On a related note, I’ve learned a great deal about reducing portfolio complexity, how to structure and execute conservative trades and manage risk based on your advice and recommendations. Please keep up the great work!Regards,Kevin MurtaughTampa, Florida

The Economy-bad data still coming through

*September nonfarm payroll was huge,down from 8.1% to 7.8%

*Weekly jobless claims up +4,000 to 367,000

*QE3 earning expectations are very low

*Is Q3 the trough for earnings?

*World Bank downgrades China growth8.2% to 7.7% 2012, 8.6% to 8.1% in 2013

*IMF says global growth prospects are bleak

*September motor vehicle sales a weak +3.1%,Toyota down 40% on China trouble

*All consistent with a low 1.5% GDP growth rate,or lower

German ManufacturingWhy Europe is in a World of Hurt

How long until it spreads to the US?

Weekly Jobless ClaimsTrapped in a Sideways Range

Break 400,000 and the rcession threat is on

Bonds-Still churning at the top

*the 1.40% - 1.90% range holds, could be ourrange for years

*Look to sell spread spreads outside these ranges

*Is the final top in?

*$40 billion a month in MBS buyingscares investors out of Treasuries

*Record junk issuance continues

(TNX) 1.40%-1.70% Range Holding

(TLT)

Short Treasuries (TBT)See the 1:4 reverse Split

Junk Bonds (HYG)

Municipal Bonds (MUB)-3% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

Stocks-The Gridlocked Market

*Buyers and sellers have gridlocked market

*QE3 raises the floor below stocks, but they won’trise much either

*Instead of a Dow 10,000 floor, it is morelike 12,000, the June low

*$10 trillion in cash sitting in US bank accounts

*$390 billion in stock buy backs supporting market *Romney bump in polls hurts all “RISK ON”assets. No Obama means no Bernankemeans no QE

*Investors still chasing yield

(SPY)-Did we just get a double top?Is the (IWM) warning us of trouble?

Buy the November, 2012 (SPY) $150-$155 Bear Put Spread20% Portfolio Weighting

Buy 23 November, 2012 $155 puts at………..…….$9.66Sell short 23 November, 2012 $150 puts at…….$5.22Net cost……………………………………………..………….$4.38

23 contracts for a 10% weighting in the model $100,000 portfolioProfit: $5.00 - $4.38 = $0.62(23 X $0.62 X 100) = $1,426 = 1.43% return

Profitable with the (SPY) at all points below $150.62,

(SPY) now at $146.4

Short (SPY) 12/$150-$155 Put Spread

(QQQ)-NASDAQ

(VIX)-Going to sleep

(AAPL)-Long the 1/$525-575 Call spread

buy this dip

(GOOG)-Long the December $650-$680 Call Spread

(FCX)

(CAT)

(BAC)-augurs for double top scenario

Russell 2000 (IWM)

Shanghai-Not yet for the double bottom

My Post Fed Shopping ListStocks to buy on the dip

November, December, January Deep in-the-money Calls Spreads

Apple (AAPL)Google (GOOG)Disney (DIS)JP Morgan (JPM)Boeing (BA)Merck (MRK)

The Dollar

*QE3 is hugely dollar negative

*Euro is rolling over again

*Missed the Euro short at $1.32

*Yen is still stagnating, gettinga weak dollar push-BOJ says no QE

*Ausie rolled over once again onweak China market

*The competitive devaluation is on,the race to the bottom

Long Dollar Basket (UUP)Close to the May bottom

Euro (FXE)

Australian Dollar (FXA)Heartbreak Alert!

Japanese Yen (FXY)Look to sell $127-$130 September call spread again

(YCS)Bailed at the Top

Energy-sell oil rallies with (USO) put spreads

*Israeli PM asks for snap electiona vote for war?

*Iraq-Turkey pipeline bombedis a 1 million b/d pipeline

*US sending troops to Jordan-Syria border

*Go short on every way rumor, Israeliintelligence told me they will wait until nextsummer to see if Iran sanctions work

*Oversupply is overwhelming demand

*Slowing China is a big factor

*Futures structure says that prices are headed lower

*Huge short cover in natural gas, rising at the expense of coal, rumor Obama will ban fracking if elected

Crude-waiting for QE3

(USO)

Natural Gas

Copper (CU)-China bounce

Precious Metals-Run longs in limited risk positionsLong (GLD) 12/$157-$162 Bull call spreadLong (GLD) 12/$160-$165 Bull call spread

Long (SLV) 12/$28-$31 Bull call spread

*”RISK OFF” hits the precious metals

*Traders selling big winners going into year end

*The sideways chop scenario is still on

*Emerging market central bank buying is continuing

*Romney bump in polls is triggering profit takingin precious metals. No Obama means no Bernankemeans no QE

Gold-long the December $157-$162 call spreadlong the December $160-$165 call spread

Silver-long the December $28-31 call spread

(Platinum) (PPLT)

Palladium (PALL)

The Agslong the (CORN) 11/$50-$55 bear put spread

*Charts are clearly rolling over

*Trade is out of season

*No Major Dept. of Agriculture reports due

*Summer Draught boosted prices to very high levels

*From hear on extreme weather affectsnext year’s crop, not this year’s

*Obama win means ethanol subsidybecome a big target, is 40% of UScorn consumption

*Is a short term trade only

(CORN)

Soybeans (SOYB)

Real EstateNo longer a drag, but a modest positive

Rally will end when recession hits in 2013

“Twist” was extended to mortgage backed securities.The 30 year fixed has plunged from 3.75% to 3.40%, lower to come

Trade SheetThe bottom line: Wait for the Fed

*Stocks- stand aside, wait for correction to finish*Bonds- sell rallies over a 1.50% yield*Commodities-short oil, stand aside related China commodities*Currencies- sell next big rally*Precious Metals – buy the dips aggressively, loves QE3*Volatility-stand aside, will bounce along bottom*The ags – stand aside, has gone dead*Real estate- rent, don’t buy

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