Post on 17-Jan-2016
description
Planning for Recovery of Long-Term Storage Credits:
ICUA & Firming
AWBA Commission Work Study SessionFebruary 1, 2006
Chuck Cullom, CAP Resource, Planning, & Analysis
AWBA Storage 1997 – 2005(LTSC ~ 2,311 kaf, AWBA 2006 APO)
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
Phx AMA -Maricopa Co
Pinal AMA -Pinal Co
Tuc AMA -Pima Co
General Fund Withdrawal Fees 4-cent Tax SNWA
~1,093 kaf
~897 kaf~321 kaf
TWO TYPES OF RECOVERY
FIRMINGICUA
SNWA
AWBA
CAWCD CAWCD
Shortage
LTSC
AWBA
LTSC
•CAP M&I•On-River•Indian
•InterstateIC
UA
CAPCustomers
LTSC
CAPCustomers
LTSC
On-River
ICUA Recovery Planning Schedule:
SNWA 2007 – 2008 Not exceeding 20,000 af per year Notice of Intent by June 1 of preceding year Comprehensive Plan by November of preceding year
SNWA 2009 – 2010: Not exceeding 30,000 af per year
SNWA 2011 – Completion (or 6/1/2060): Not exceeding 40,000 af per year
Firming Recovery Schedule: 2017, Shortage Probability ~ 25%
PROBABILITY OF SHORTAGEUPPER BASIN LIM ITED TO 4.8 M AF - AWBA PROJECTION
0%
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Pro
ba
bil
ity
Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, 80P1050 First Level Shortage, Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, Upper Basin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection,YDP Starts in 2009, 500 KAF ShortageInterim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 200 KAF, 400 KAF, 600 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 300 KAF, 500 KAF, 800 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 400 KAF, 500 KAF, 600 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, UpperBasin Lim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009Interim Surplus Guidelines - Ending in 2016, Tiered Shortage Strategy - 400 KAF, 700 KAF (Tier Starts at 1,075), Mead Minim um Elevation - 1,000 feet, Upper BasinLim ited to 4.8 MAF - AWBA Projection, YDP Starts in 2009
Recovery Planning Status:
ICUA Recovery Planning: CAWCD Recovery Well Permits ~ 20,000 af/yr Capacity
• 14 wells in MSIDD• 7 wells in CAIDD
Framework Recovery Agreements• 1992 Storage and Recovery Agreements
Firming Recovery Planning: AWBA Study (1999) & Recovery Committee B-E Study Regional Discussions & Plans
Recovery Planning Process:
Phase 1 – Existing Framework: Complete Data Collection Meet with Stakeholders Recommend Planning Priorities Draft Report - April, 2006
Recovery Planning Process:
Phase 2 –Comprehensive ’07-’08 Plan for ICUA : ‘07 – ‘08 SNWA Schedule:
• Define Delivery & Recovery Schedules• Refine Recovery Agreements• Prepare Certifications
Meet with Stakeholders Recommend Rate and Cost Schedules CAWCD Board Approvals
• November 2006 for 2007 Recovery
Recovery Planning Process:
Phase 3 – General Plans for ICUA & Firming Recovery: Complete General Plans for 2009 -
+2011 SNWA Recovery Estimate Needed Firming Capacity Draft General Firming Recovery Plans Meet with Stakeholders Establish Process for Updating Plans November 2007