Post on 22-Feb-2016
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PLAN FORMULATION FOR HYDROPOWER
IUGLS Plan Formulation Workshop, Jan 13, 2010
Topics
Prices Peaking and ponding model and
assumptions Existing plan results Hydroplan goes bust Next steps and recommendations
Prices Preliminary SVM prices Prices based on hourly Ontario market
data, 2002-2009 Draft report from Synapse gives many
options 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 With or without projected CO2 Price Peak/Off-Peak pattern Broken out for each plant/location
Prices
Synapse, 2030, No CO2 price
Peaking and Ponding
SVM now has Peaking and Ponding module (worksheets ‘P&P1’ and ‘P&P2’)
Power, energy and $ calculation on P&P sheets replace the old monthly calculations, but those are still there for validation and testing
Takes monthly side channel flow, determines peak and off-peak flow, applies peak and off-peak prices to determine value of energy produced
Assumptions U.S. Gov’t: No peaking, no ponding Cloverland
Capacity: 860 cms Minimum: 90 cms in summer, 305 in winter
Brookfield Capacity: 1140 cms Minimum: 250 cms (somewhat arbitrary)
Monthly flow allocation first, then P&P Assume set number of peaking days per
month 5x16 peak period, all other hours are off-
peak
How does it work Calculate how much water is needed for
full peaking If there is enough then
peak flow=capacity Off peak flow set to maintain monthly
allocation If allocation is not enough, either
shorten the peak period to fewer hours or reduce the peak flow (option, I usually assume shorter peak period, but have not tested)
Actual operations are messier and this might overestimate the extent of P&P
Ex: 77A, Feb1902, Hydropower= 1805 cmsCountries split flow evenlyUS Gov’t takes first 405 cms of US share20 peaking days320 peak hours, 352 off-peak
Monthly = 903 cms Full P&P: 1140 cms for 320 hrs 687 cms for 352 hrs
405 cms
Monthly = 498 cms Partial P&P: 860 cms for 233 hrs 305 cms for 439 hrs
Side-channel flows from SVM?
Summary of Plans ResultsSynapse 2030 peak/off-peak prices, No CO2 price
Synapse 2030 peak/off-peak prices, No CO2 price
Building Hydropower Plans Objective: build a plan that targets peak
and off-peak flows to chase electricity prices
Basic strategy Treat peak and off-peak periods separately Try to release capacity during peak periods Release more if Superior is really high, less if
really low Adjust off-peak based on lake level Monthly release is the weighted average of
the two Initial work seemed promising but there were
mistakes
The Rule Curves HydroPlan categorizes Superior level
based on relation to PP monthly percentiles1. Very high (above 80th percentile)2. High (60th to 80th percentile)3. Average (40th to 60th percentile)4. Low (20th to 40th percentile)5. Very Low (below 20th percentile)
The Rule Curve HydroPlan v1.0 set a year type each
December based on the December Lake Superior Level1. Very high (above 80th percentile) – release PP
flows2. High (60th to 80th percentile) –release hydro
capacity3. Average (40th to 60th percentile) – Peak and
Pond 4. Low (20th to 40th percentile) –Peak and Pond
when prices are high5. Very Low (below 20th percentile) – Peak and
Pond when prices are high
Lesson #1 Assumed we could target pretty low off-
peak flow, around 900 cms Results in monthly flow of about 1620
cms Because of allocation rules, this limits
peaking and ponding at Cloverland Minimum flows for full peaking:
Winter ~ 2070 cms Summer – 1840 cms
Or should we question the allocation rules?
HydroPlan results
They’re bad
Let’s look at two decent plans:Bal3 and PreProjectUsing Synapse prices without CO2 Price
…with CO2 price
The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)
The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)
The Key is “Spill” (flow in excess of plant capacity)
Conclusions
Key values for full peaking Winter 2070 cms Summer 1840 cms
Try to release at least those amounts as often as possible
Try to avoid more than about 2450 cms Forecasting may be important to decide
when to increase above 2070/1840 (this is essentially increasing off-peak flow) to avoid high Superior levels