Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply

Jack Forster (DECC)

Physical gas flows across Europe and diversity of gas supply

• Talk is framed around informing policy through improved methodology

• Where did we start?

• How did we improve this to help inform policy on gas infrastructure resilience?

• Where do we want to take this in the future?

Where did we start?

• Previous analysis on physical gas flows across Europe

• Gas map (gas flows in/out of EU Member States)

• Bubble chart showing self-sufficiency, relative consumption and diversity of imports (IEA data)

Where did we start?

What are the important questions?

• Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to policy colleagues and economists

• What did they want to know?- How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during

peak demand time)?- How many pipelines/storage sites etc. are there?- How does the UK compare to other EU Member

States?- How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future

major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

How did we address these questions?

• Comparative infrastructure assessment

• What are the sources of gas supply?- Pipeline imports- LNG terminal imports- Gas storage supply- Indigenous production

• Universal metric required for these imports

• Data needs to be available

How did we address these questions?

• Universal metric = Peak flow (PF)

• Peak flow = maximum output from pipeline in volume per time (bcm per day)

• Can be summed by source and by country

• Allows comparison across EU Member States

• Can be compared to peak demand

• Easy to understand

How did we address these questions?

How did we address these questions?

• Chart is useful illustrative tool but does not act as a metric for comparison

• We used a simple PF - 1, PF - 2 metric

• Similar to N-1 measure in EU Regulation No.994/2010 therefore familiar to Policy

How did we address these questions?

Where:

PF = Peak Flow (bcm/day)

EPmax = Peak capacity of entry points (bcm/day)

Pmax = Peak capacity for each indigenous production pipeline (bcm/day)

Smax = Peak output for each storage facility (bcm/day)

LNGmax = Peak output for each LNG terminal (bcm/day)

Dmax = Average 2012 peak gas demand (bcm/day)

Imax = Peak daily capacity of single largest supply route (bcm/day)

max

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ILNGSPEPPF

How did we address these questions?

How did we address these questions?

• How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during peak demand time)?- UK has a range of gas sources- Peak supply able to meet peak demand twice over in

2012, even after removal of two largest gas supplies

• How does the UK compare to other EU Member States?- Sixth most resilient Member State (PF-1, PF-2)- UK has most diverse range of sources- UK has less storage than other top 5 gas demanding

Member States

What are the important questions?

• Prior to further analysis, it was key to speak to Policy colleagues and economists

• What did they want to know?- How resilient is UK’s infrastructure (esp. during

peak demand time)?- How does the UK compare to other EU Member

States?- How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future

major supply loss (e.g. Russia turns off the tap)?

How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?

• So far, we have looked at within-country infrastructure disruptions

• What about EU-wide supply disruptions?• European gas supply 2012

- 24% from Russia (116 bcm)- 21% from Norway (102 bcm)- 8% North Africa (Algeria, Libya)- 12% LNG (77 bcm, Qatar, Nigeria, Algeria)

• Clear risks here

UKRAINE19.4 53.2

121.0

Supply country

EU MS A

Supply country

EU MS B

EU MS C

EU MS D

LNG

How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?

How resilient is the UK & EU in case of future major supply loss?

• With the loss of a supply route, how much spare capacity is there in the system?- Gas sources- Max flow- Connections between countries- Time of year (demand, storage)

• Can we model this system?

How resilient is the UK/EU in case of future major supply loss?

Conclusions

• We now have good understanding of within-EU Member State infrastructure resilience, and appropriate methodology for a cross-country comparison of resilience

• Much improved on previous work in terms of informing policy

• Looking to the future, we need to examine EU-wide supply disruptions: this is the hot topic

Conclusions

Initial Results

Initial Results

Initial Results: German Gas Supply (No Russian Gas)