PHEV Task ForceDecember 15, 2006

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Legislative direction:

HF 3718 Sec 3. Subd. 4. Charge. (a) The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle task force shall identify barriers to the adoption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by state agencies, small and large private fleets, and Minnesota drivers at-large and develop strategies to be implemented over one-, three-, and five-year time frames to overcome those barriers.

Included in the analysis should be possible financial incentives to encourage Ford Motor Company to produce plug-in hybrid, flexible-fueled vehicles at its St. Paul plant.

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Other Considerations…

What are the larger objectives?

– Improved air quality?

– Reducing imported oil?

– Developing renewable energy resources

– Shifting energy economics to local or regional sources?

PHEV’s have potential to be part of the response

Need to keep objectives in sight, not limit responses

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Identify PHEV barriers:

Owner / operator economics and utility– cost(s) of energy (fuel and electricity)

– battery cost / life / safety (technology)

– energy tax structures (fuel electricity)

– electrical generating capacity and sources

– transmission infrastructures

– charging site infrastructures

– vehicle cost and depreciation

– vehicle utility • range, speeds• passenger payload capacity, comfort• performance

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US Energy Consumption by Source 2005US Energy Consumption by Source 2005

Biomass3%

Hydro-Electric Power

3%

Coal23%

Petroleum (transportation)

29%

Petroleum (other)11%

Natural Gas23%

Nuclear Electric Power

8%

57% of transportation petroleum is motor gasoline

Wind: 0.15%

Solar: 0.06%

?

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Minnesota Gasoline Prices

11% / year?

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EIA Energy Price Forecast

1.35% / year 2016-2030 ?

Source: EIA

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Efficiency ChainExample

96% 40% 85% 96% 90% Battery charging losses

90% Battery discharging losses

96%Mine to Wheel

95% 22%95%

16%

Well to Wheel95% 13%

85% 98%

Coal Fired Steam Generating Utility

Plant

Transmission and voltage reduction

Battery Charger

AC DCBattery

Motor

Engine

Transmission

Fuel Tank

Distribution &

DeliveryRefining

Processed Coal

OilWell

Bi-Directional Inverter

DC AC

Wheel

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Why Hybrids?

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Light Duty Hybrids

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Toyota’s analysis…

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Mileage?

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$-

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

0 20 40 60 80 100

miles per gallon

per

mil

e $2.00

$2.50

$3.00

Fuel Cost to Drive 15, 000 miles

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

0 20 40 60 80 100

miles per gallon

Effect of mileage on fuel cost per mile

Fuel Cost to Drive 15,000 miles

Electricity + battery replacement (one example)

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Markets and Product availabilityMarkets and Product availability

– Off-road / utility • State Parks• golf courses• industrial complexes• Universities

– On-road• neighborhood (35 mph and less)• non-freeway (35-55 mph?)• full capability (55-70 mph?)

– Private individuals• commuting• general use

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Markets and Product availabilityMarkets and Product availability

– Commercial uses• Messenger• Delivery• Taxi’s

– Government fleets• State • Post Office• Police, etc.

– Rental cars (e.g. from MSP)

Manufacturers who has what plans for PHEV's?– And what can we do to encourage them?

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Market Building Strategies? Traditional Carrots & Sticks!

Tax structure modifications – road use taxes on fuel or electricity – vehicle size / weight tax structures– license fees – sales taxes

Subsidies & Incentives (long list)Preferential use considerations

– freeway commuter lanes– parking

EducationCollaboration

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Market Building Strategies?

Education– Impacts of energy use choices

– Understanding alternatives

– Science & Technology education K-12 through University

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Market Building Strategies?

Collaboration to build market size– Common product specifications are important to

building an attractive market

– Coalitions with other states

– Cooperative efforts with other major metros

– Establish consistent incentives

Broadens the market

Builds a coalition of stakeholders

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“It's tough to make predictions,

especially about the future.”

Yogi Berra (1925 - )

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“The best way to predict the future is to invent it. “

Alan Kay

(Alan Kay is one of the inventors of the Smalltalk programming language and one of the fathers of the idea of Object Oriented Programming. He is the conceiver of the laptop computer and the architect of the modern windowing GUI.)

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“The future is here.

It's just not widely distributed yet.“

William Gibson (1948 - )

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