Peter InceU.S. Forest ServiceForest Products LaboratoryMadison, WI

Topics:

2010 RPA Forest Assessment

U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)

FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM

Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs

The U.S. Forest Service produces 50-year projections of forest resource trends in the RPA Assessment reports every five years:

Recent RPAAssessmentReports (2002, 2007)

RPA research includes long-range modeling of trends in wood supply and demand

P

Q

S

D

Developing Long-Range

Forest Product Market

Projections for the 2010

RPA Assessment . . .

Approach:

Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)

U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)

RPA Scenarios (based on IPCC SRES)

Linkages to other RPA Models . . .

ForecastedWood Products and Timber Outputs

and prices

2010 RPA Models and Scenario Analysis IPCC Global

Scenarios

SocioeconomicVariables

BioenergyForecasts

ClimateForecasts

US Forest ProductsModule (USFPM)

Land Use Model

Translation / Downscaling

Translation /Downscaling

Forest area supply

CarbonAccounting

Ecosystem ServicesWildlife, Water, Recreation, Forage

LandscapeStructure

ForecastedForest Conditions

and Land Use

Timber harvest & supply

Domestic Macroeconomics

and DemographicsForecasts

Forest DynamicsModel

Global ForestProducts Model

For the 2010 RPA Assessment, we developed the “U.S. Forest Products Module” (USFPM) within the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM):

Rationale for global model & linkages:

Globalization of forest product markets

Global expansion of biomass energy

Forest impacts of global climate change

Global forest & market interactions

RPA Assessment Objectives:

To Provide Long-Range Information (50-year projections) about the Status and Trends of the Nation’s Renewable Resources on Forests and Grasslands-----------------------------------------------

Special focus of 2010 RPA Assessment

IPCC Global Socioeconomic and Climate Scenarios . . . with global bioenergy outlook

Some basics about USFPM (U.S. Forest Products Module for 2010 RPA):

We built USFPM to run inside the GFPM (when we run USFPM we also run the global analysis)

USFPM expands what was originally a single region in the GFPM (USA among 180 other countries)

USFPM models timber supply, timber harvest, and forest product production in the three U.S. subregions (North, South, West):

We model U.S. wood supply and demand at several market levels in USFPM . . .

Timber(standing trees, or stumpage)

Timber Product Outputs(delivered logs & chips)

Forest Product s

Harvest Mills

We model “wood fuel feedstock” demand = harvested fuelwood and fuel residues. . .

TimberTPO

Harvest Mills

FuelwoodHarvest

Fuel Residues

Wood Fuel Feedstock

Compared to the GFPM, USFPM has a much more complete regional supply structure for wood and wood fiber, with base year (2006) timber supplies calibrated precisely to Forest Service regional FIA data and TPO data by species group:

GFPM

Industrial RoundwoodFuelwood

Other Indust. Rndwd.Other Fiber PulpWastepaper

USFPM

Softwood SawtimberHardwood SawtimberSoftwood Non-SawtimberHardwood Non-Sawtimber

Other Fiber PulpRecovered Paper

Softwood Ag. SRWCHardwood Ag. SRWC

Mill Residues

Sawlogs/Veneer logsOther Indust. RndwdHarvest ResidueFuel FeedstockPulpwood/Comp.

(GTR-WO-78)

FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM (corresponding to data in RPA “Forest Resources” report, GTR-WO-78 ): Sawtimber & Non-Sawtimber harvests (HW/SW) Timber Product Outputs per unit of timber harvest Harvest Residues per unit of timber harvest Fuel & Fiber (Mill) Residue outputs (HW/SW) Forest Inventories & Net Annual Growth (HW/SW)

USFPM also allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials into fiber or energy products based on prices and costs – i.e. if demand or prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume higher value inputs:

Agric. SRWCSawlogs

Logging Residue

Pulpwood/Composite

Fiber Residue

Fuel Residue

Fuel Feedstock

60% of logging residue can be recovered and used for fuel feedstock, but this requires a price higher than current fuelwood price, to pay for residue recovery expense

FIA/TPO data relevant to bioenergy in USFPM include . . .

Fuelwood Harvest & Logging Residue supplies, modeled as “by-products” of timber harvest activities in USFPM

Fuel Residue (mill residue) supply, modeled in USFPM as “by-products” of forest product production activities

Fuel Feedstock demand = Total wood demand for energy including fuelwood, fuel residues, and “cascading” supplies of pulpwood, SRWC, logging residues, etc.

Summary

USFPM model developed for 2010 RPA using FIA/TPO fuelwood harvest, fuel residue and logging residue data

USFPM also models potential “cascading” use of logging residues, pulpwood, Ag. SRWC, and even sawlogs for energy (but only if economical to do so)

The “Fuel Feedstock Demand” encompasses all wood demands for energy (not differentiated by end use)

RPA Wood EnergyScenarios (IPCC)

According to IPCC (and RPA scenarios), the peaking of global petroleum output will occur within the next couple of decades . . .

IPCC (SRES): World petroleum output peaks during 2020-2030 in all three of our scenarios . . . Peaking of oil causes subsequent massive increases in bio-energy

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RPA Scenarios: We calibrate U.S. demand growth for wood fuel feedstock to IPCC scenarios on biomass energy production, as shown here . . .

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Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)

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U.S. Fuel Feedstock Output by Source & A1B Projection (MMCM)

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060RW Harvest Fuel Residue SW Pulpwood HW Pulpwood Fiber Residue

Harvest Residue Howard RW TPO Fuel Residue

Massive (~6X) increase in U.S. wood fuel feedstock demand (2010-2060) is a feature of A1B scenario. Energy demands eat into pulpwood, mill residues & harvest residues . . .

USFPM A1 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)

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Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

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Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) more than triples(!) in A1 scenario, with expanding wood energy & net exports:

USFPM A2 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)

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Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

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Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lower in the A2 scenario, with lower wood energy and lower net exports:

USFPM B2 Projection - Total Forest Biomass Supply (MMCM)

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Residue Removal

Agric. SRWC

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Sawtimber

Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lowest in the B2 scenario, with not quite a doubling in harvest by 2060:

Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs

USFPM calibrated to current FIA/TPO data (WO-GTR-78) does not require additional wood bioenergy data

However, if bioenergy use expands, future RPA models (2015 RPA?) may need more detailed wood energy data, such as harvest and residue volumes by more detailed wood energy categories (conventional fuelwood, wood for fuel pellets, wood biomass burned for electric power, wood biomass for liquid fuels, etc.)