Post on 19-Oct-2014
description
People, the planet, and sustainable livestock Jeroen Dijkman
Livestock live talk seminar ILRI Nairobi 18 January 2013
What this presentation is about
• Scarcity, demand and the implications of business as usual;
• Unpacking sustainable livestock;
• The change we want;
• One world, one Agenda
In the next 30 years we’re adding two Chinas....
The Future…
Commodity prices on the rise
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ap
r-0
1
Au
g-0
1
Dec
-01
Ap
r-0
2
Au
g-0
2
Dec
-02
Ap
r-0
3
Au
g-0
3
Dec
-03
Ap
r-0
4
Au
g-0
4
Dec
-04
Ap
r-0
5
Au
g-0
5
Dec
-05
Ap
r-0
6
Au
g-0
6
Dec
-06
Ap
r-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Dec
-07
Ap
r-0
8
Au
g-0
8
Dec
-08
Ap
r-0
9
Au
g-0
9
Dec
-09
Ap
r-10
Au
g-1
0
Dec
-10
Ap
r-11
Commodity Price Index Monthly Price
International prices for maize and soy
Facts and Trends
US $ /ton
Source: FAO commodity prices, 2011
A Global Water Crisis
• 2 billion people lack access
• Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarce
• 70 % of total freshwater use is for agriculture
Peak Oil
Climate Change
4th AR, IPCC 2007
•2007 IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C during the 21st century
• The rate of warming over the last 50 years is almost double that over the last 100 years (0.13°C ± 0.03°C vs. 0.07°C ± 0.02°C per decade)
Annual urban growth rate
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
SSA LAC NENA S. Asia E. & SE. Asia Developed
An
nu
al
gro
wth
p.a
. (%
)
1970-2000 2000-2010 2010-2030 2030-2050
Annual growth in per capita consumption of livestock products
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2006-2030 2030-2050 2006-2030 2030-2050
An
nu
al
gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
Bovine meat
Ovine meat
Pig meat
Poultry meat
Milk
Eggs
Developing countries Developed countries
Relationship between animal protein consumption and income
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Pe
r c
ap
ita
an
ima
l p
rote
in s
up
ply
(g
r/d
ay)
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
Land
• By 2050, 33 % more people need to be fed
• 70 % more meat and milk
• Expansion of biofuels will continue
• Uncertainties of climate change
• Potential for agriculture expansion is limited
Livestock and Land Use
• 26 % of global land is pasture
• 12 % of global land is crop land, 1/3 thereof is for feed
• Yield growth accounts for most of agric. production increases
• Area expansion into forests, mainly in Latin America
Livestock and Water
• Direct water use is small
• Indirect water use and impact on water cycles is huge:
– Water for feed production
– Impact grazing on water quantity and water quality
– Water pollution from livestock waste
Livestock and Climate Change
Land use and land use change (deforestation and degradation)
Nitrogen fertilizer production and use for feed
Emissions from digestion
Emissions from livestock waste
Climate change to affect feed and water availability
Pastures as a potential carbon sink
What solutions have been offered?
• No problem, no solution required – denial, business as usual
• Problems are local – technical fixes
• Problems are substantial and systemic – policies needed
• Problems are huge and can hardly be fixed – rein in growth
• Problems are beyond control - vegetarianism
EFFICIENCY IS KEY
When it comes to accommodating sector growth,
Intensification
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
CO
2 e
q/k
g m
ilk
milk (kg/cow)
Ethiopia
Kenya
South Africa
Thailand
Egypt
China
Rwanda
Variability means opportunities
25%
25%
50%
25%
26
So…
• Despite higher input costs, sector growth will continue
• Intensive production is more efficient and has lower emissions
• Huge performance gaps within systems and across countries
• Technical solutions are available but incentives need to be better aligned
Livestock is at the centre of most contemporary resource use issues (land, water, energy, nutrients, climate change)
Demand for livestock products will likely continue to be strong
Efficiency is key to reducing resource requirements and environmental impact and requires: ◦ Technology adoption and development need to
accelerate
◦ Supporting policy frameworks
◦ Joint stakeholder action
….what this all means
• making livestock more sustainable is both important and urgent: action is needed
• “blame games” aren’t helpful: we need a constructive dialogue to build consensus
• Resource use efficiency identified as the common ground and it indicates the direction of change
But what does sustainability actual mean?
• Multi-functionality of agriculture – Livelihoods, food security, economic growth, environment,
agro-industrial development, bio-fuels, convergence – ensure the supply of ‘public goods’
• Interconnectedness of scales – International markets, climate change, (animal) disease
outbreaks, increasing price volatility, unpredictable and non-linear change
• Diversity of approaches and experiences has led to atomisation and contending coalitions rather than coherence and collective learning and action.
Livestock sector sustainability
Inter– and Intra- generational equity
Finding common ground:
Game changing opportunities
– Closing the efficiency gap: Existing technology and institutional frameworks can generate large resource use efficiency, economic and social gains
– Restoring value to grasslands: Payment for environmental services can connect people and production systems, raise productivity and enhance livelihoods
– Reducing discharge: Recovery of nutrients and energy contained in manure can reduce nutrient overload and greenhouse gas emissions and reduce public health problems
Opportunities to build sustainability
• Knowledge use capacities as a way of responding to change and as a new source of comparative advantage
• Rapidly advancing technological frontier
– New opportunities from public and private R&D
• Collective intelligence
– Collaboration of different sources of knowledge. Both necessary and now possible.
How to optimize the contribution of these opportunities
• Not just knowledge and technology inputs that are needed, but also the processes that make knowledge available and enable its use:
• From high yielding technologies to high-yielding processes
How to optimize the contribution of these opportunities (cont)
• How to organise? – Strengthening interaction across the whole range of
actors involved in the livestock sector to deal with known and unknown, predictable and unpredictable challenges and opportunities, now and in the future.
• Addressing multiple agendas. – Finding ways of developing and adapting habits and
practices that foster a capacity that integrates pro-poor, pro-environment, and pro-market agendas.
• Stimulating change. – Finding ways to stimulate the institutional and policy
changes needed to bring about the above.
Moving to a New Narrative
• The livestock sector will grow but that growth will need to be “green”
• The livestock sector offers great opportunities for better resource management and development
• Social and health objectives can be aligned
• We need to do this jointly – collective action
•
jeroen.dijkman@fao.org
www.livestockdialogue.org