Post on 07-Jan-2016
description
World Bank, October 5, 2005
Tackling TB in the HIV era: implications for policy dialogue and operationsPaul Nunn5 October 2005
" We cant fight AIDS unless we do much more to fight TB as well " Nelson MandelaBangkok, July 2004
ContentsCurrent status of TB and HIV epidemics, focus on AfricaThe policy responseProgress and operational issuesPolitical and partnership commitmentsConclusions
Current status of TB and HIV epidemics, focus on Africa
TB incidence rate 19902005Stop TB Department
Current Global Status8.8 million new cases of TB in 2003 7.6% of total cases HIV+ (674 000) = 12% of adult cases TB notifications and estimated incidence stable or decreasing in 5 WHO regions, increasing in Africa, due to HIVGlobal estimated incidence grew 1%Global prevalence and mortality rates falling
Epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa 19852003 Millions% HIVprevalence adult (15-49)Number of people living with HIV and AIDS% HIV prevalence, adult (15-49)YearSource: UNAIDS/WHO, 20042004 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic (Fig 5)
Nairobi
Chart3
0.00157891610.0580.02048851670.020488516734.786907481470.498680183
0.00194558450.09576822920.01364790380.013647903864.398263020269.7563212631
0.00215947670.13388748020.01878812910.018788129160.920524760569.031113035
0.00239668370.16574817220.02077303740.020773037468.845601288568.3225580779
0.00265969960.15140377360.0193004320.01930043275.647191163967.6301763168
0.00295127410.15700990920.0204907930.02049079379.359829310666.9535043362
0.00327443580.16158982770.02066281550.020662815583.24229140866.2920947233
0.0036325176199700110.501729288965.6455154389
0.0040291827199800167.150663786165.0133492157
0.0044684530.16594370860.0209797680.020979768184.699325553864.3951929813
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0.00549286082001307.471943099463.1993658758
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0.0067461924434.749604595862.055073039
0.0074734032517.484161933261.5013801203
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0.0091628693592.552683206460.4292572804
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Model
TB notification/100k
HIV prevalence
Variance
384
alpha1.1588537147TBHIV
beta3Approx. rel. Var2.0170.027
a0.5662832687Average235.15113.617
b16.2471280396
t01990.6128485343
DataLogistics
Error SquaredTBHIVYearExcel logisticTB LogisticHIV Logistic
0.50.50201993114.044741319601980
10.60.50201993130.533016206401981
20.50.60201993114.044741319601982
30.50.50.1201993113.074322713301983
40.50.5020.11993112.678786865701984
50.50.50201995395.20991394534.7919850.025119.9682
60.520.520.0220.021993116.617653082164.4019860.079826.4178
70.540.540.0420.04199130.527560015260.9219870.251734.8672
80.560.560.0620.061989146.194324523168.8519880.776445.8757
90.5080.5280.02820.0281992.679.581064875775.6519892.246560.1157
100.4160.5560.05620.0561992.250.116534939979.365.800019905.515378.36605.5153
110.49120.53920.039220.03921992.4466.640201912583.249.576819919.9983101.48039.9983
120.48240.57840.078420.07841991.8837.949033205110.5013.3887199213.5421130.318913.5421
130.487680.534880.0548820.054881992.21652.939666166167.1516.5748199315.2862165.633715.2862
140.475360.469760.1097620.109761991.43227.9475310749184.7015.1404199415.9327207.902915.9327
150.463040.404640.1646420.164641990.64834.834145929226.9315.7010199516.1471257.135416.1471
160.4827520.5288320.05683220.0768321991.902438.821731529307.4716.1590199616.2156312.690116.2156
170.4655040.5576640.01366420.1536641990.804830.9228329468412.410.0000199716.2372373.181613.4786
180.47585280.54036480.059564820.08756481991.4633628.2374924282434.750.0000199816.2440436.542514.1971
190.45170560.58072960.119129620.07512961989.9267257.7647890957517.4816.5944199916.2462500.268916.2462
200.46377920.56054720.089347220.08134721990.6950432.0289641326576.410.0000200016.2468561.799114.6941
210.485408640.541274240.0662342420.092634241991.16236827.1887929787592.550.0000200116.2470618.911314.7637
220.554817280.526548480.0764684820.129268481990.12473666.569073011
230.450704320.548637120.0611171220.074317121991.68118431.7135428851
240.4790695040.5353216640.06277766420.0918176641991.122604827.0848172184
250.4757390080.4922433280.04715532820.1052353281990.365209643.3156204419
260.4807347520.5568608320.07058883220.0851088321991.501302428.828345655
270.48246061440.53458439040.059025990420.09256999041991.2838572827.0761350854
280.50114202880.50862158080.028704780820.10379278081991.8726745638.5030056483
290.47311990720.54756579520.074186595220.08695859521990.9894486427.7870597106
300.48694373180.53437012540.061639885420.09509828541991.14551020827.3381780444
310.52318314370.52010313090.062162650920.11587945091990.60983641640.0567586127
320.46882402590.54150362270.061378502720.08470770271991.41334710427.4991527258
330.4876077370.531138050.07118278620.0813070261991.267219628827.1011792053
340.5097114740.50461210.12870157220.0089500521991.729639257633.9269879745
350.47655586850.5444010250.04242339320.1174855131991.036009814427.8517905971
360.47491891070.5320182550.071667464620.09680412861991.274421591726.8429494484
370.40983782150.524036510.103334929220.15360825721991.548843183428.9910114694
380.44237836610.52802738250.087501196920.12520619291991.411632387527.1907872519
390.46724763350.52625156510.075049937620.10482360081991.256487589226.6367065021
400.45376051510.49564229820.079511043120.12453836951991.011672778427.1782915662
410.44027339660.46503303120.083972148720.14425313831990.766857967629.9967983088
420.46292773660.53142802470.069000146220.10777927471991.172422144926.510124538
430.45049547310.59309604940.028240292420.10579854931990.912844289727.7686856579
440.45771565750.54116702960.066163526120.10544188191991.147789039926.3707765981
450.43887544650.53793303420.089903659120.09339825091991.259568265425.9141795104
460.42003523540.53469903880.113643792220.08135461981991.37134749126.4532855323
470.44709872310.53859367830.074054965420.10432108681991.224168810126.0524226758
480.42107753910.52962156140.073923335720.12168357851991.458888980227.6135555036
490.44121513630.52589878070.083191574120.10749809271991.333377748226.430705242
500.43193479950.4587015120.138142855920.1091976361991.753911206733.1866316854
510.44585530470.55949741510.055715933220.1066483211991.12311101926.0868657429
520.44617068940.53187395140.079550093620.10449104121991.26622215626.1453876481
530.47126383980.53412634150.085176851620.08729850391991.073555331727.007254629
540.44665865220.53039849520.084309763420.10500920141991.198263801526.016100695
550.42449327850.51929336770.107241024120.12531070011990.98318049926.3541147829
560.44308163470.52865169220.088257728820.10503010291991.112573423826.0318661823
570.44378490340.5292760020.089014260820.08485401281990.813514460128.6020822454
580.44273000040.52833953730.087879462920.11511814791991.262102905726.1304865643
590.44087553180.53519114010.089931412820.10314605851991.162659449325.8669814177
600.42799054850.5747399820.100351782420.08175374751991.313646120226.0135774203
610.41510556520.61428882390.110772152120.06036143651991.46463279127.5520507905
620.43222087350.54331386820.09296639920.10203710731991.21067760725.7194291544
630.39317790720.55250139490.100755946420.11677571061991.347799882226.5259799233
640.41269939040.54790763150.096861172720.1094064091991.279238744625.8531460539
650.43075370450.54595558670.08960987520.10764746511991.192255857725.704089719
660.44147217360.55721213460.065575957920.13394031041991.013164224426.7694022578
670.425394470.54032731280.101626833620.09450104241991.281801674325.8566856263
680.43093394280.55016237570.08848703720.10148553361991.251980092725.8199191668
690.4373746070.58103138380.069733049920.0776603671991.520779686528.4492027831
700.42771361070.53472787170.097864030520.11339811681991.117580295925.7125185106
710.42793066480.55144004260.090483950520.10114152741991.223075570825.6821171829
720.41313132930.57454054790.093088438120.08716490681991.184048235925.3593565615
730.39833199370.59764105310.095692925820.07318828631991.14502090125.166002245
740.41842600260.55906877020.09847934920.09444952041991.227457547225.5596454306
750.39099670060.55864012540.141242764820.08225071981991.331804075426.2998391073
760.43214065370.55928309260.077097641120.10054892071991.175284283125.6669506069
770.41925602370.55597739230.093828520720.09820855511991.199785179825.5056352733
780.41052149890.53721480270.08730525920.11466336261991.085924239425.4747410408
790.41628142950.55535489030.090964205820.10224101911991.160609692825.4345210966
800.40716838890.57038246790.08030157820.10998099571991.039417711225.5055384762
810.41517522920.55984985760.087652286920.10235593641991.112645486125.4204915151
820.4176510680.57179208370.078443401120.09530546391990.946052227726.1157297473
830.41393730980.55387874460.092256729820.10588117271991.195942115325.4949271694
840.4124199690.56368003220.086530826720.10085254761991.1283178525.3699495838
850.39712632730.59263219270.07519762320.08830697841991.139055404225.2328664291
860.40541710370.57034985220.086150823120.09840415911991.121072074225.2919070445
870.37869355380.58141661180.095204005120.09625939761991.066859865425.2547890635
880.39972213670.5725566810.089131308520.09565983951991.12656050525.2517647728
890.39227588440.5747308940.09796103920.08133868331991.213703298925.4720697124
900.39538985160.57672711090.090272170420.09075134161991.130112741825.2267141688
910.37684239350.59957547710.08828761120.07562151061991.064283368225.181374056
920.38865403050.58919924570.090468640820.08294297121991.125784567525.2055863586
930.36678656220.64118368880.093632022520.05122257991991.165644895625.6327992865
940.39958776470.56320702420.088886949920.09880316691991.105854403425.2568035305
950.39011640660.58689447180.088653822920.08643586791991.104214788425.183278505
960.38795692880.59905804960.079346606920.09153305261990.99472627825.3072488623
970.38903666770.59297626070.084000214920.08898446031991.049470533225.1948349136
980.38800618720.59284831910.087676475920.08447212661991.092938014425.1705078192
990.37642460970.62248961390.08646600220.07014108631991.080021625325.1853993101
1000.38755239840.60106291950.085928875320.07924846441991.095570366425.1509891339
1010.3964112430.62070922720.076653745520.06223753121991.124280867425.0845266299
1020.40527008760.6403555350.067378615820.0452265981991.152991368425.0565738345
1030.38918115040.6106075880.084365073920.07063238831991.098357559225.1080314077
1040.38123597350.62858298320.093532524820.05295779821991.057659714325.0428550175
1050.37329079660.64655837850.102699975720.03528320811991.016961869325.0353715139
1060.38603197620.62132401150.08810502620.05989213791991.091855826425.0691650408
1070.38302728470.64967176240.092209837220.03079981551991.134241119725.0914183747
1080.38735251120.62676044120.089253793120.05202388371991.102699725325.0421226128
1090.39828041280.63103126860.092041584220.03390668111991.125377825324.9458118597
1100.40920831430.63530209590.094829375320.01578947841991.148055925324.8937830695
1110.39382569540.6339057650.090562145920.04005747731991.119454236724.9807427689
1120.41080899730.66823605280.092836680920.0044934441991.174625105324.9160606301
1130.39632109610.64802476490.08999089720.02631850881991.125375077624.9207321447
1140.39431019850.69840847680.084288868219.97944873131991.105729254224.6939957281
1150.39229930090.74879218860.078586839419.93257895381991.086083430724.4851524609
1160.39817549940.66784885020.087266297420.00667433651991.115743539824.806017972
1170.4133237140.68602593790.082322757619.98254885751991.097245959924.6642450286
1180.39978622460.67698293070.090255125819.99413878841991.104594458124.7220945397
1190.39430236170.71361032650.113131635819.94305097871991.056197547924.4577759862
1200.38881849880.75023772220.136008145819.89196316911991.007800637624.2607284251
1210.40289176510.69771879950.096916759819.96547478051991.102762211824.5732239587
1220.43249273350.74887922040.091133543919.8956663531991.188562554224.4666442196
1230.40722851230.7138474330.096576132419.94370936231991.105549701624.4613881507
1240.40364802730.75945881320.100315583919.88292528071991.036474297824.1082722526
1250.40006754230.80507019340.104055035319.8221411991990.967398894123.8491614481
1260.40540035790.74780105250.098421264419.90497970651991.069418295324.2311141936
1270.40159240140.86030000910.102013153519.79416993451990.990780665423.6905787543
1280.3977844450.97279896580.105605042619.68336016251990.912143035423.2618599525
1290.40229250410.80515565810.103077721419.84514196751991.032397710423.9353779271
1300.39126129420.92428537820.123832685219.70773507751990.967549460923.480456244
1310.40208490280.8402542960.112126890619.80017319221991.008690916523.7190370897
1320.41187050460.93171640350.145666941819.66776743071990.931298402223.044245957
1330.42165610641.02317851090.179206992919.53536166911990.853905887922.4633468463
1340.39991757730.89511415410.129741580419.72811225541990.941759583223.4262716171
1350.36734242111.04134908780.168349616919.56055815791990.694956612223.8579435892
1360.39562236180.95333642720.136209874619.66183125321990.879190778123.2511082884
1370.40242622481.15643513220.136411603419.43169933741990.750580918622.3894043154
1380.40923008791.35953383710.136613332219.20156742151990.62197105921.6814986347
1390.40399989511.01697337710.129862617719.59003310591990.864593667522.8281786332
1400.44065736920.99259766640.091375618419.61950805391991.034230722822.6184462702
1410.41211786051.05447887170.127326734319.54950647691990.877960033222.5110215951
1420.42416817881.303887550.150598433219.27687175481990.788521172321.2153623665
1430.43621849711.55329622830.173870132219.00423703261990.699082311419.982739198
1440.42110930111.18028104170.137334223719.40880686791990.824266603321.8165924484
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3741.159507819330.566445336116.24598546481990.61350263532.8939623169
3751.15891315330.566466262116.2472400691990.61346123272.8939547049
3761.159458885230.566685050816.2506847631990.61400882542.8940785618
3771.15864028730.566356867716.24551772211990.61318743642.8939539045
3781.15890172330.566448290516.2468419051990.61328538062.893947479
3791.159106008730.566449855716.24617526781990.61250406422.8939498837
3801.159310294330.566451420916.24550863061990.61172274782.8940002527
3811.158976798530.566531192716.24653217841990.61330847462.8939442077
3821.159222966330.567027040716.2453404561990.61422835512.8940058855
3831.158853714730.566283268716.24712803961990.61284853432.8939543331
3840.8150394030014.80092872131994.1704272682.7260888779
3850.80625105040014.7335688351994.127074858782.7900349701
3860.81943357930014.83460866451994.192103460682.7231144156
3870.81582574240014.81060158851994.178248082882.7231470047
3880.81614960240014.83495884831994.203496819282.731025696
3890.81680594240014.82099962961994.183456994182.7220845044
3900.82236328260014.85903061671994.189461725482.7317835067
3910.82123632710014.82154299391994.185852446382.7221311261
3920.8422612950014.78677219241994.194220428482.7408076322
3930.81072384320014.83892839461994.181668455382.7246806578
3940.81890843920014.81752254951994.184293792382.7219180988
3950.81545359580014.77601448231994.179125859282.7346837413
3960.82063586090014.83827658311994.186877758982.72402656
3970.81980569090014.81818609641994.180969980282.7223006726
3980.82346177940014.80141334461994.158443141282.7406080582
3990.81797764670014.82657247241994.192233399782.7232825073
4000.81884271050014.82552167111994.185387333182.7219787332
4010.81489287220014.86114874341994.200628030882.7298609658
4020.82081762970014.8077081351994.177766984282.7231717855
4030.8179177120014.82921884991994.186130011882.7221446434
4040.81039280150014.86921545871994.198206432582.732150295
4050.82168016720014.80922054551994.180091801482.7227906931
4060.82010897680014.82327728011994.18581468182.7219937628
4070.82949411030014.80762616561994.189960906682.7257472682
4080.815416410014.83110283741994.183741568182.7225206789
4090.81906508660014.8218425311994.185187442882.7218804813
4100.81749431220014.80540847881994.183497126882.7236100505
4110.81827969940014.81362550491994.184342284882.7222604414
4120.81912549710014.81925313751994.183609219882.7218992418
4130.82027334750014.81193380261994.174985039982.724161977
4140.81855157190014.82291280491994.187921309882.7221349197
4150.81867228550014.82229407141994.185640084982.7218994246
4160.81652694140014.83688000791994.193513185682.724025536
4170.81974495760014.81500110321994.181703534682.7221101774
4180.81873456120014.81837255921994.183560099782.7219064825
4190.81803554310014.80213645391994.175016738982.7240380127
4200.81908407030014.82649061181994.187831780282.72209213
4210.81821534180014.82182657241994.185108095582.7219106627
4220.81475051640014.83443259941994.190124389682.7235910722
4230.81994775450014.8155235591994.182599948482.7220303308
4240.81912161070014.81871071681994.184879771682.7218906726
4250.82282681150014.80631859621994.18601797582.7228388432
4260.81726901030014.82490677711994.184310669882.7220085437
4270.81891947290014.82096697121994.184873448682.7218733343
4280.81955924650014.82830843751994.185404612382.7222770008
4290.81859958610014.8172962381994.184607866782.7219680168
4300.81892907580014.81984365781994.184210759982.7218772092
4310.81930657960014.81677451081994.180500210182.722264106
4320.81874032380014.82137823141994.186066034982.721925461
4330.8187281490014.82111908351994.1850832682.721880992
4340.81771134040014.82723706371994.188462985482.7223013635
4350.81923655330014.81806009331994.183393397382.7219143373
4360.81875864560014.81943297981994.184195583482.7218834992
4370.8184332210014.81237534771994.180559386782.7222936616
4380.81892135790014.82296179581994.186013681882.7219103969
4390.81855336630014.82092062711994.184878330182.7218858765
4400.81715897810014.82631769531994.187156711882.7222123529
4410.81925056040014.81822209311994.183739139382.7218992068
4420.81894967630014.81958369031994.18476402482.7218791533
4430.82063034230014.81426060361994.185217378182.7220492607
4440.81810934330014.82224523371994.184537346982.721906413
4450.81885162780014.82057348951994.1847499282.7218739416
4460.81910366940014.82385074091994.184891973482.7219400392
4470.81897764860014.82221211521994.184820946782.7218869701
4480.81889909270014.82074026621994.184500902482.7218740186
4490.81905786160014.82010230111994.182935769982.72195591
4500.81881970830014.82105924881994.185283468682.7218830713
4510.81881572370014.82134009731994.184878916782.721875741
4520.81839489410014.82462010131994.18636443682.7219661471
4530.81902613850014.81970009531994.18413615782.7218789075
4540.81883667980014.82068775721994.184503411782.7218742419
4550.81875200170014.81841371861994.182993141682.7219278945
4560.81887901890014.82182477651994.185258546782.7218810882
4570.81899061490014.82060366581994.184647651782.7218722785
4580.81987188650014.81896209781994.184757956482.7218977539
459
Variance
5.515322398734.786907481419.96824080385.8
9.998320797664.398263020226.41784329919.5768229167
13.542149621960.920524760534.867237639913.388748019
15.286208981568.845601288545.875671859816.5748172218
15.932671934175.647191163960.115698504815.1403773585
16.147103226779.359829310678.366049028615.7009909166
16.215602217883.242291408101.480308592316.1589827728
13.4785687443110.5017292889130.31892475350
14.1970613068167.1506637861165.63367814760
16.2461516273184.6993255538207.902885169616.5943708609
14.6940705352226.9273140453257.1354278430
14.7636882106307.4719430994312.69012898560
412.4140635609373.1815782635
434.7496045958436.5424585364
517.4841619332500.2688557421
576.4106617335561.7991271256
592.5526832064618.9112980716
HIVLogisticCalc
TB Data
TBLogisticCalc
HIV Data
Year
TB Inc per 100k
HIV Prev per 100
Logistic Fits
HIV parameters
NairobiNote on fitting
Runs100
HIV Prevalence Parameters
ValuesFitHIV Prevalence100%150%50%
FittedInitialStepMinMaxError squared3017.2014563161ModelData0.50252715930.21386661140.4394076935Alpha
alpha0.42010.42180.10000.37970.4640Log Likelihood-125.2010507385YearPrevYearPrevLowHigh1990.85105539711994.47411461091994.045810828T0
beta0.48090.47560.10000.42810.523219800.00157919900.0580.0200.020000.3529639605a
a0.21070.20840.10000.18760.2292NelderMead Parameters1980.250.00194619910.0960.0140.014000.29Beta
b0.17180.17000.10000.15300.1870MaxnumNMIrns5001980.50.00215919920.1340.0190.0190.13713691030.20570536550.0685684552b
t01993.0541993.0480.50001992.0001994.000tolerance0.11980.750.00239719930.1660.0210.021
Variance14.505114.47480.100013.027315.922319810.00266019940.1510.0190.019
Warm up cure rate0.10460.10000.10000.09000.11001981.250.00295119950.1570.0200.020
Number of years before model starts that cure rate is changed to model value93.568792.46312.000083.2168101.70941981.50.00327419960.1620.0210.021
Initial force of infection0.03140.03180.01000.02860.03501981.750.0036331997
Start date198019820.0040291998
1982.250.00446819990.1660.0210.021
1982.50.0049552000
1982.750.0054932001
19830.006088
1983.250.006746
1983.50.007473
1983.750.008277
19840.009163
1984.250.010140
1984.50.011218
1984.750.012403
19850.013708
1985.250.015141
1985.50.016713
1985.750.018437
19860.020322
1986.250.022381
1986.50.024627
1986.750.027070
19870.029722
1987.250.032594
1987.50.035696
1987.750.039036
19880.042620
1988.250.046452
1988.50.050534
0.24MINIMUM OBTAINED1988.750.054862
24919890.059430
241989.250.064226
0.241989.50.069235
3.61989.750.074434
19900.079796
1990.250.085288
01990.50.090873
1990.750.096507
19910.102144
1991.250.107736
1991.50.113231
1991.750.118581
19920.123738
1992.250.128660
1992.50.133308
1992.750.137651
19930.141666
1993.250.145338
1993.50.148662
1993.750.151638
19940.154275
1994.250.156589
1994.50.158601
1994.750.160334
19950.161815
1995.250.163072
1995.50.164132
1995.750.165022
19960.165766
1996.250.166389
1996.50.166910
1996.750.167347
19970.167717
1997.250.168032
1997.50.168304
1997.750.168540
19980.168750
1998.250.168938
1998.50.169108
1998.750.169266
19990.169412
1999.250.169549
1999.50.169679
1999.750.169802
20000.169920
2000.250.170032
2000.50.170139
2000.750.170241
20010.170339
2001.250.170432
2001.50.170520
2001.750.170605
20020.170685
2002.250.170760
2002.50.170832
2002.750.170899
20030.170963
2003.250.171022
2003.50.171078
2003.750.171131
20040.171180
2004.250.171225
2004.50.171268
2004.750.171308
20050.171344
2005.250.171379
2005.50.171410
2005.750.171440
20060.171467
2006.250.171492
2006.50.171515
2006.750.171536
20070.171556
2007.250.171574
2007.50.171591
2007.750.171606
20080.171620
2008.250.171633
2008.50.171645
2008.750.171655
20090.171665
2009.250.171674
2009.50.171683
2009.750.171690
20100.171697
2010.250.171704
2010.50.171710
2010.750.171715
20110.171720
2011.250.171724
2011.50.171728
2011.750.171732
20120.171735
2012.250.171738
2012.50.171741
2012.750.171743
20130.171746
2013.250.171748
2013.50.171750
2013.750.171751
20140.171753
2014.250.171754
2014.50.171756
2014.750.171757
20150.171758
2015.250.171759
2015.50.171760
2015.750.171761
20160.171761
2016.250.171762
2016.50.171763
2016.750.171763
20170.171764
2017.250.171764
2017.50.171765
2017.750.171765
20180.171765
2018.250.171766
2018.50.171766
2018.750.171766
20190.171766
2019.250.171767
2019.50.171767
2019.750.171767
20200.171767
HIV parameters
000.02048851670.020488516734.786907481470.498680183
000.01364790380.013647903864.398263020269.7563212631
000.01878812910.018788129160.920524760569.031113035
000.02077303740.020773037468.845601288568.3225580779
000.0193004320.01930043275.647191163967.6301763168
000.0204907930.02049079379.359829310666.9535043362
000.02066281550.020662815583.24229140866.2920947233
0000110.501729288965.6455154389
0000167.150663786165.0133492157
000.0209797680.020979768184.699325553864.3951929813
00226.927314045363.7906573065
00307.471943099463.1993658758
0412.414063560962.6209549817
0434.749604595862.055073039
0517.484161933261.5013801203
0576.410661733560.9595475104
0592.552683206460.4292572804
059.9102018778
059.402083736
058.9046148975
058.417516655
057.940519206
057.4733613218
057.0157900307
056.5675603135
056.128434812
057.9623680083
058.6894651022
059.4674461125
060.3048744745
061.2113918238
062.1976093507
063.2750485833
064.5827645322
066.0633562295
067.7297878371
069.596572523
071.6798382295
073.9973877465
076.5687515259
079.4223268077
082.5838921635
086.0808005386
089.9420180294
094.1981291566
098.8812995348
0104.0251855185
0109.665177949
0115.8378956721
0122.5808388679
0129.9319381347
0137.9289823708
0146.6089084974
0156.0069371407
0166.1555634986
0177.0833552098
0188.8135705731
0201.3626053368
0214.7382894208
0228.9380716632
0243.9471509158
0259.7366362598
0276.261841614
0293.4608453129
0311.2534661283
0329.5408206486
0348.2056282693
0367.1134145304
0386.1147271374
0405.0484192419
0423.7459723472
0442.0367313203
0459.7538158669
0476.7403701663
0492.855731529
0507.9810562685
0522.0239491795
0534.9217077615
0546.6429097226
0557.1872284864
0566.5835344928
0574.8865043012
0582.1720906263
0588.5322867841
0594.0696408896
0598.8919415638
0603.1074199566
0606.8207100117
0610.1296986987
0613.1232963929
0615.8800757451
0618.4676705456
0620.9427944576
0623.3517296224
0625.7311416301
0628.1090943911
0630.5061608404
0632.9365491428
0635.4091864318
0637.9287215613
0640.4964242293
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Model
TB notification
HIV prevalence
Fit output
70.4986801831980
69.75632126311981
69.0311130351982
68.32255807791983
67.63017631681984
66.953504336234.7869074814
66.292094723364.3982630202
65.645515438960.9205247605
65.013349215768.8456012885
64.395192981375.6471911639
63.790657306579.3598293106
63.199365875883.242291408
62.6209549817110.5017292889
62.055073039167.1506637861
61.5013801203184.6993255538
60.9595475104226.9273140453
60.4292572804307.4719430994
59.9102018778412.4140635609
59.402083736434.7496045958
58.9046148975517.4841619332
58.417516655576.4106617335
57.940519206592.5526832064
57.4733613218
57.0157900307
56.5675603135
56.128434812
57.9623680083
58.6894651022
59.4674461125
60.3048744745
61.2113918238
62.1976093507
63.2750485833
64.5827645322
66.0633562295
67.7297878371
69.596572523
71.6798382295
73.9973877465
76.5687515259
79.4223268077
82.5838921635
86.0808005386
89.9420180294
94.1981291566
98.8812995348
104.0251855185
109.665177949
115.8378956721
122.5808388679
129.9319381347
137.9289823708
146.6089084974
156.0069371407
166.1555634986
177.0833552098
188.8135705731
201.3626053368
214.7382894208
228.9380716632
243.9471509158
259.7366362598
276.261841614
293.4608453129
311.2534661283
329.5408206486
348.2056282693
367.1134145304
386.1147271374
405.0484192419
423.7459723472
442.0367313203
459.7538158669
476.7403701663
492.855731529
507.9810562685
522.0239491795
534.9217077615
546.6429097226
557.1872284864
566.5835344928
574.8865043012
582.1720906263
588.5322867841
594.0696408896
598.8919415638
603.1074199566
606.8207100117
610.1296986987
613.1232963929
615.8800757451
618.4676705456
620.9427944576
623.3517296224
625.7311416301
628.1090943911
630.5061608404
632.9365491428
635.4091864318
637.9287215613
640.4964242293
643.1109701062
645.7691105795
648.4662319045
651.1968124604
653.9547889817
656.7338435097
659.5276227902
662.3299012246
665.1346975158
667.9363539972
670.7295864334
673.5095109049
676.2716532936
679.0119458985
681.7267148448
684.412661199
687.0668380763
689.686625494
692.2697043001
694.8140301489
697.3178082229
699.7794691736
702.1976465879
704.5711561518
706.8989765864
709.1802323604
711.4141781287
713.6001848159
715.7377272364
717.8263731338
719.8657735148
721.8556541511
723.7958081284
725.6860893261
727.5264067178
729.3167193927
731.0570322056
732.7473919732
734.3878841402
735.9786298519
737.5197833727
739.0115297995
740.4540830263
741.8476839207
743.1925986786
744.489117329
745.7375523643
746.938237476
748.091526378
749.1977917026
Model
Data
TB Incidence/100K
Parameters
Kisii
100iterations
n
17
HIV parameter fit results
Iterationalphabetaabt0varianceWarm up cue rateNumber of years before model starts that cure rate is changed to model valueInitial force of Infectionlog Likelihood
10.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-127.459438654
20.52184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-388.2001010086
30.42184482720.57562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-146.550619781
40.42184482720.47562560850.30839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-1141.2822786396
50.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.271993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-5346.784751632
60.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.547844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-264.8843650049
70.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.57480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-127.0578017158
80.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.292.46311549810.0318155534-1634.7648831314
90.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.194.46311549810.0318155534-126.5653969462
100.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0418155534-2117.3521437973
110.43295593830.48673671960.21950729370.171993.103399823614.48591119020.10592.68533772030.0329266645-194.024332434
120.44406704950.49784783070.22437154730.16151993.158955379214.49702230130.107592.90755994260.0340377756-200.1819678536
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1000.42013945650.48090537610.21067565860.17176846551993.05440338514.50507984670.104613036193.56871085050.0313769033-125.2010507385
MINIMUM OBTAINED0.42238348330.47713321060.20889440470.17030065671993.066623489214.51380768120.101283295593.49326754130.031824845-109.9144918744
1020.42396388760.47920878470.21625072590.17048662411993.058519848214.50338325540.101754591293.53477902390.0314472893124.7120214796
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1120.42077718720.4786435270.20828247350.17104476451993.054048782614.51531799760.100178654393.52347386970.0317300887-109.8115256049
MINIMUM OBTAINED0.42996595150.28948234080.13523289430.171993.589549821114.45267676110.105125630592.89170750360.0385775898-390.299405126
1140.42257280530.47778912990.20925643720.17116796891993.052970608314.51446360060.101873906693.5063859280.0316346071109.4630313158
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1410.36397319990.39527624470.14244324380.171993.568426971814.41463408160.100029012693.32459955880.0382800827-185.6988550161
1420.30929759540.46587806390.15212510540.171993.55111218414.40363712210.100014506393.8015506020.0366793283-392.2639392812
1430.39131100220.3599753350.1376023130.171993.577084365714.42013256140.100007253193.08612403710.0390804599-212.5161880258
1440.36577316440.39235654690.14203175560.171993.572108197114.4168444750.100003626693.28903404160.0386124531-183.9093840729
1450.35643500670.39846047870.14275780390.171993.600263056414.43344992870.100001813393.17185439160.0411357803-278.9622730641
1460.37044224320.3893045810.14166873140.171993.558030767514.40854174810.100000906693.34762386660.0373507895-208.3440817208
1470.36673646120.40865901120.14321763030.171993.557014193314.41299105390.100000453393.29400859530.0382363525-179.8376482342
1480.37170035050.57473561980.15543940170.171993.420151584414.38275957010.100000226793.28516430780.0357370096-190.574094269
1490.37666423980.74081222840.16766117320.171993.283288975414.35252808620.100000113393.27632002020.0332376667-328.3002725947
1500.37004091590.42700427860.14368154130.171993.554041034214.41367247540.100000056793.26270750140.0379363664-178.1436981851
1510.39812157370.4443803440.13609888030.171993.661172051714.45071817410.100000028392.95854084950.0374358485-313.2012332596
1520.3560005870.41831624580.14747287190.171993.500475525414.3951496260.100000014293.41479082730.0381866254-191.4081451458
1530.36559928850.43063888920.14585488990.171993.540127480514.40681633330.100000007193.22533579570.0378423734-175.9111496456
1540.33522334290.47567302780.16379704450.171993.454557453314.35677776190.100000003592.69953541290.0366521841-280.9783173449
1550.38078726120.40812181980.13688381250.171993.582912494214.4318356190.100000001893.48823598710.038437468-200.0176522476
1560.36920708490.42321117420.14782911430.171993.52305361714.41664402790.100000000993.24026765810.0376341933-170.4290979363
1570.39009707620.37145109440.17654243550.171993.309529967414.48990168830.100000000493.12668609070.0349572984-136.4825876552
1580.41098706750.31969101450.20525575670.171993.096006317814.56315934860.124023475293.01310452320.0322804034-253.0996752853
1590.37502377420.41614981870.15070972250.171993.490452365914.42372453470.112011737693.18616222160.0374206384-173.5427888721
1600.41230067620.39729634270.15080248370.171993.377963504614.42127194240.106005868892.75868942390.0379619844-194.299696779
1610.3821664170.4108678610.15177822730.171993.475074485614.4234676630.103002934493.15962036720.0373432403-158.5823935386
1620.41631594330.37690176030.16237051390.171993.433784544614.42335153860.101501467293.32167462080.0360279125-204.3024227741
1630.38494474380.41274857490.15453024960.171993.459152283314.42382532720.100750733693.18579265430.0370040683-155.0324928888
1640.37857848550.46552181480.17145818610.171993.341220200914.4275180930.100375366893.28546127140.0349276767-141.7704427385
1650.38584877070.42121715640.1578401890.171993.435062220314.42593380990.100187683493.17888569920.0367348336-148.1527298566
1660.40125529820.45312973190.17401164660.171993.312093673114.44332587180.100093841793.01014753190.0361188776-137.0240070541
1670.38417536570.42968693110.15913364820.171993.421541012414.42815318030.100046920893.14427157820.0367449408-144.6150424404
1680.35203478810.48247210190.15589678250.171993.409297480214.4329548220.100023460492.96686853560.0374619691-222.0034912561
1690.40024565450.40329434570.1607520810.171993.427662778514.42575235950.100011730293.23297309950.0363864266-159.8595719325
1700.38633740940.4291505450.1617856780.171993.40429104414.42747726260.100005865193.11590903520.0365170473-141.2773371998
1710.39188755760.45017927020.18668754350.171993.225669593814.42311890610.100002932692.74358208330.0345966266-134.3069861735
1720.39743770580.47120799550.2115894090.171993.047048143614.41876054970.100001466392.37125513140.0326762059-180.2945549745
1730.38396305070.43698568850.16404727430.171993.383696481114.42587220320.100000733193.14783025450.0363403149-139.3411189152
1740.35466931570.49430839740.16176137190.171993.356372302914.41417996580.100000366693.83936940.0364934112-208.8254627677
1750.39860991830.4083243340.16519022550.171993.397358570214.43171832190.100000183392.80206068180.0362637667-146.2430063719
1760.3889639560.43802764440.16537298620.171993.368013933114.42672404210.100000091693.07328392420.0361262547-135.2848782179
1770.4243261410.47710855790.17748715340.171993.19752636414.42939631260.100000045892.67359019320.0340622008-130.3011309347
1780.45968832610.51618947140.18960132060.171993.027038794914.43206858320.100000022992.27389646230.0319981469-163.8407578358
1790.39030011880.44689566830.16833794950.171993.34796536214.42762674990.100000011593.06382845410.0356929454-131.1122719533
1800.36829956130.49649499380.18587341530.171993.317967219314.43398155740.100000005793.36896748430.0334239064-173.753031252
1810.39166667150.45558219580.17260467650.171993.327686661314.43194140890.100000002993.05873697150.0351637544-127.2919087903
1820.42733275590.49284814580.19773648120.171993.154897797214.46873319190.100000001492.70268311580.0321408834-129.9018195677
1830.46299884040.53011409580.22286828580.171992.982108933114.50552497480.100000000792.346629260.0291180124-194.6436122869
1840.39784804980.44648358760.1773043520.171993.298214018314.44149403360.100000000492.99401683910.0347641848-122.9599759607
1850.42399574920.31823155540.19916930230.171993.176276452214.50022849710.100000000292.70286937040.03379136-202.3676146027
1860.38477420020.51060960370.16637187690.171993.359182801314.41212680180.100000000193.13959057340.0352505972-143.2479055337
1870.39967856530.44805187760.17513751440.171993.302793527414.43906572740.192.96853051570.0349671504-124.1324527312
1880.43105756920.39960876140.16440161360.171993.287619835514.44414989740.192.5680935470.0365103945-190.1941351162
1890.38398906330.47227343570.18050546480.171993.310380373314.43652364240.193.1687490.0341955284-133.1402405495
1900.39787227740.45571622090.17733233480.171993.28976214914.44026253660.192.96139450460.0347237173-121.813338741
1910.39549890020.50813809620.19391258860.171993.151861519614.45477271380.192.68981590970.033061008-128.9899269384
1920.3931255230.56055997150.21049284240.171993.013960890114.4692828910.192.41823731470.0313982987-191.9275968487
1930.39752660870.4668066390.18052370850.171993.26248469914.44282413570.192.94892286330.0343678552-119.5012029918
1940.39644329910.52528894390.19585719150.171993.127610827714.45392994960.193.09578504470.0324719437-137.2939137179
1950.39882317520.46843767680.18379985460.171993.236754479714.44746892990.192.94405558230.0340591159-117.5219143167
1960.41287215030.42626574980.20122783230.171993.11432615814.4828110580.192.74852059110.0328676347-115.7830608844
1970.42692112530.38409382290.218655810.171992.991897836414.51815318620.192.55298560.0316761534-141.6994480863
1980.40263358240.46407589180.1871075930.171993.211544030514.45361259270.192.88439550670.0338302224-114.7617982142
1990.42668867940.46262996880.20275699990.171993.0818678614.47970709250.192.4833297420.032732768-118.1184228255
2000.40599418020.45711378340.18787423840.171993.206461478514.45647671970.192.81634491750.0338592029-114.231355896
2010.41554506140.38893862290.17989128540.171993.285312129314.45902348980.192.53690479030.035246462-153.6735333113
2020.40121873970.49120136370.1918657150.171993.167036153114.45520333470.192.95606498110.0331655733-117.3577588107
2030.40599011820.46134396470.18985802380.171993.190343976314.45779643780.192.81033574520.0335310579-112.9134694753
2040.41072493810.46955819760.2057044010.171993.068594279414.47226700380.192.61052395850.0309432383-128.9260456791
2050.40828210280.4722447540.19309824220.171993.163573344314.45583702840.192.75298439720.0330850513-111.6481897
2060.42646712950.57303841350.20965404890.171993.017616721214.42177236860.192.37928270370.0312128042-129.953042154
2070.41212427750.48589576990.19565007610.171993.140456358414.45568741320.192.71250668830.032709071-111.7843295911
2080.43236099740.52161226950.20461260870.171993.055243123114.48825592020.192.68143129340.0308215154-151.4772594866
2090.40200591760.46803752010.19116880980.171993.183062976114.43940315960.192.72804438580.0336528488-115.7414848687
2100.41412615020.48542511260.19683489220.171993.12630998114.45600735950.192.6635395090.0326487733-110.5482548359
2110.44426323710.49857678950.21316431960.171992.942239588614.47549107660.192.1583300180.0311020181-113.9679784542
2120.47440032390.51172846640.2294937470.171992.758169196214.49497479370.191.6531205270.029555263-137.4589055748
2130.41634138310.48781047170.20079902180.171993.097944783714.4611290.192.60628837840.0323198641-109.7227707052
2140.40835662510.49851238540.22411089020.171992.998363203414.49286168730.192.53898656360.0305775274-131.0853157076
2150.42033376210.48245951480.18914308760.171993.147735573914.44526265630.192.63993928580.0331910324-114.6384871071
2160.41565989780.47774614960.19852002610.171993.11240243414.46373903190.192.63525022090.0325396672-109.405255898
2170.40485266610.38245388560.18738600330.171993.207188146814.50570569520.100600173492.8912177380.0338665303-127.8405936986
2180.413162110.46548012070.1973699730.171993.118212472814.46784708780.100300086792.65619851220.0327314058-109.4293209592
2190.39899146420.43811209550.19700346490.171993.081527148514.46696098380.100150043392.60971390870.0333219282-133.2976657991
2200.4202474330.47916413320.19755322710.171993.13655513514.46829013990.100075021792.6794408140.0324361446-114.1205568723
2210.4159119470.46226079140.19777448840.171993.116511763414.46934902410.100037510892.65504572380.0326619765-109.437163294
2220.43632499390.41638348670.20163638820.171993.081162007314.48392533430.100018755492.6202755380.032262945-133.6331655705
2230.40570542360.48519944380.19584353850.171993.134186641514.46206086890.100009377792.67243081670.0328614922-113.6357453687
2240.41535422320.46399870770.1966788370.171993.123799803714.46821500910.100004688992.66192426360.0328751158-109.6374369412
2250.41998350830.45843921780.1876532730.171993.179005327914.46416301430.100002344492.71332456870.0348069933-135.6242295694
2260.41303958060.46677845260.2011916190.171993.096197041614.47024100650.100001172292.63622411110.0319091771-112.9990964675
2270.41626388040.4733681040.19821279430.171993.111467458614.46427448810.100000586192.63359163840.0326576321-109.0068703576
2280.42767509460.56428232250.20903958530.171993.015746770514.4228432810.100000293192.37596553880.031448734-123.2472923472
2290.42196948750.51882521320.20362618980.171993.063607114614.44355888460.100000146592.50477858860.0320531831-112.2537452148
2300.41573952570.47961202010.1983093710.171993.109438486914.46025802060.100000073392.63597484360.0325821227-109.2735316707
2310.4047903720.49659407140.1938617420.171993.137009113814.44080894860.100000036692.78861994520.0324314774-122.6459217773
2320.42121410250.47112099440.20053318540.171993.095653173514.46998255650.100000018392.55965229280.0326574454-109.3427303833
2330.41796123270.47738086790.19927242320.171993.101507044814.46190015630.100000009292.59192898930.032525664-108.8405426648
2340.43470372570.46356037220.20667913150.171993.035977936414.4685969780.100000004692.22779299750.0318857548-114.1327120459
2350.42038696330.48152471490.19987812320.171993.092801686814.46032081410.100000002392.53407036780.0324165663-109.0110531039
2360.42790177630.53678367990.1985284140.171993.071277215614.43783057010.100000001192.31962014450.0319654979-117.8559963899
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2380.42201181210.47995334960.20092080850.171993.083968458614.46389445590.100000000392.52443160040.0323042609-109.0277409901
2390.44201770660.49186917910.21067280720.171992.984873941114.48838575220.100000000192.32081881510.030955673-116.6837150872
2400.41200886480.47399543480.19604480920.171993.133515717414.45164880780.100000000192.62623799310.0329785549-110.0094154006
2410.42108682350.47901289630.20168766640.171993.082388474514.46460402830.192.52290923460.0322806523-108.616781065
2420.4218398850.47556627770.21423224530.171993.017041375214.48394540030.192.40587918340.0313702722-111.0265270089
2430.41965750790.48034688570.20252690130.171993.080284412214.46630940860.192.54269658860.0322233764-108.468484414
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2450.42718061680.4719536290.20460301640.171993.058131174314.46745319330.192.38524479310.0320545656-109.7082728806
2460.42042786160.47954571860.20331021120.171993.071570638814.46621641450.192.51000814180.0321809788-108.2589860869
2470.42060829030.4799273040.20906719540.171993.006586142514.46414268920.192.34057546960.031925813-116.5975076739
2480.42033764730.47935492590.20043171920.171993.104062886914.46725327720.192.59472447790.0323085617-109.9930327172
2490.41776946280.4774099560.20189547780.171993.089551005214.46530110350.192.55849641510.0323150392-108.5011099186
2500.39127568850.45624312250.1906266360.171993.236862421914.45511113030.192.95866281230.0335280602-121.1776992206
2510.43101634990.48799337270.20752989870.171993.015895296914.470396090.192.35841321660.0317085287-109.486542415
2520.42058178790.47772039250.20319396230.171993.076407522514.46622723910.192.52360557070.0321869321-108.2896065254
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2540.42307274030.47810515790.20423315860.171993.06778878514.4662441950.192.49455626110.0321428427-108.9999064733
2550.43310590.48943186330.20727469830.171993.039380528414.46224738360.192.3528884110.0323765082-117.998672665
2560.41805616050.47244180530.20271238880.171993.081992913314.46824260070.192.56539018610.0320260099-109.3588582332
2570.42113918570.47834965390.20336293670.171993.07482928614.46600519410.192.51573513450.0321999135-108.2451741675
2580.40682021910.48645796660.19618148740.171993.131030168614.46161677880.192.65668994450.0328874551-113.0605353595
2590.4282986690.47429549760.20695366140.171993.046728844814.46819940170.192.44525772960.0318561428-109.5042529379
2600.42184242810.47340190780.20373265580.171993.072953922714.46874302930.192.50912170580.0321780202-108.2388275055
2610.42171536860.42797860230.20383912180.171993.082300730914.4939271740.192.51346482290.0323028572-113.3151513872
2620.42190595780.49611356050.20367942280.171993.068280518614.45615095690.192.50695014720.0321156016-109.1575842158
2630.42184976950.47568493920.202560120.171993.078647160914.46565475780.192.52035181290.0322608345-108.430439952
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2650.42184482720.47562560850.20839618260.171993.047844268114.47480007910.192.46311549810.0318155534-109.3241708137
MINIMUM OBTAINED0.65915260670.025069325100.17999999991994.357176959214.56472044470.111159961693.17774297040.0204414966-4686.5516376427
2670.42190595780.49611356050.20367942280.62901422761993.068280518614.45615095690.045585694292.50695014720.0321156016109.1575842158
2680.65882731860.032285636800.181994.356270153614.56174588680.112593661793.09554200470.0204569806-4692.1814223682
2690.65937225640.026063021900.181994.358335401114.56415094470.111277091693.16531507980.0204390522-4687.116995146
2700.66189404170.028783678600.181994.370826625614.56143050280.111014691393.12323713970.0203991236-4735.1860882132
2710.65811136380.024702693600.181994.352089788914.56551116560.111408291893.18635404990.0204590165-4689.9380250025
2720.65959786860.026949825800.181994.357343695914.56358618750.11182224993.15895121140.0204305823-4686.9247751273
2730.66311488270.037178192300.17964544731994.353672255414.5565783950.117142622693.07427355690.0203259194-4714.4451061182
2740.65783936150.021835642500.17982272371994.359179416114.56709008380.109162062293.20129003860.0204829138-4699.5042479624
2750.65938406860.025966332600.1799