Participation

• Voting

• Campaign Activity– Volunteer – Contribute money (corporations are people)

• Contacting officials

• Group Activity

• Protest

Participation

• What trends in each mode?

• How does US compare?

• Which mode has greatest effect?

Participation

• Trends– Voting is way down in most nations

• But in US, we elect lots…

– Campaign activity is flat • 3% volunteer

– Donating flat in US (about 10%)– Activity of the wealthiest

• But trying to persuade others is way

% who tried to influence how others vote

Is this meaningful participation?

Participation

• Trends– Contacting officials up (?)

• People say they will, but do they• When? How? (email?)

– Group activity (30%)• Dalton says it’s up, • Putman it’s down• Does Internet act as social group?

Participation

• Trends– Protesting up?

• Most sign petitions, up most places• Boycott up US, GB• Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany

– 17% in US

• Occupy down/flat– 2-4% in US

• Strike down/flat

Participation

• Again, what has most consequences for what government does?

• Which is easiest?

• What differences between how wealthy and others participate?

Voter Turnout

• Who votes, who doesn’t?

• Why?

• Why a decline?

• Is there a decline?

• What proposals to increase turnout?

Voter Turnout in US

• Is there a turnout problem?

• In US• about 55% vote in presidential elections

– up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%), down in 2012 (58%)

• about 35-40% vote in congressional elections

• Washington state above the national average

US Turnout Compared

• US turnout low compared to other est. democracies

• Other democracies also show decline

US Turnout Compared

• 1950s vs. 1990s /2000

• Few est. democracies have turnout increasing

Voter Turnout

• In the US• a steady decline (maybe)

• turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960

• turnout much lower now than 1900– why ??

• today, a lower % of eligible voters participate– farmore eligible voters now

Turnout Trend 1948-2012

• Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout

• 58% VEP 2012

• Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population

M. McDonald data

Long term view

Voter Turnout

• 1896 90% drop to 62% in 1904– voter registration laws

– Jim Crow laws

• 1916 61% drop to 42% in 1920– suffrage to women

– size of eligible electorate doubled

• 1936 59% drop to 51% in 1948– WWII

• 1968 60% drop to 52% 1972– suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

Voter Turnout in US

• 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962)

• 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966)

• 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970)

• 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986)

• 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990)

• 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998)

• 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline since 1890s?

• Old numbers from a different context– high mobilization

• labor intensive parties

– limited pool of eligible voters– fraud– more mobilization then vs. now?

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline 1960s - 2000?

• Demise of parties– campaigns now capital intensive (ads)– less direct contacts w/ voters– candidate centered politics– “party building” efforts (soft money) for

GOTV had little effect

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?

• Demise of competition– Fewer US House races competitive vs.

1960s• even with demise of one-party south

– Fewer state legislative seats competitive– Campaign activity concentrated in rare,

competitive districts (and states)

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?• Demise of Competition• Effects of competition

– 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout

• ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more

– 2 initiatives = 1% more– Senate race, Gov race...

Voter Turnout in US

• Why increase in 2004 & (less so) 2008?

• Were the stakes higher?

– 2000 election result?• 2004 6% increase over 2000

– some new issue?– candidate effects?

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline?

• Regulatory barriers – 30 day advance registration– vote only on day of election– must vote at specific location– limits on use of mail, absentee ballots– Prohibition on felons voting

Barriers to voting

• Lowest– ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA

• Highest– MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA

Voter Turnout in US

• Why a decline

• Regulator barriers– What effects of Election Day Registration

(EDR)?• Several states• 4.5% increase in presidential elections• 2.0% increase in midterm

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration – CA*, CO, CT, DC, ID, IL*, IA, ME, MT, MN, NH, WI, WY (ND

does not require registration)

– In GA 2014...42,000 registrations not processed (close Senate race)

– In WA• proposals to have shorter pre-reg. period but

not EDR

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration– What effect on electorate?

• makes voting more convenient

– Who will take advantage?• ???• ???

Voter Turnout in US

• Election Day Registration– Proponents:

• Democratic Party

– Opponents:• County Auditors• ‘Bureaucratic nightmare’

– requires more staff– vote provisional ballot?– check if registered/voted in other county

Voter Turnout

• Felon disenfranchisement– Two states do not ban from voting (Maine

and Vermont)– Some states restore after release /

probation (ex Felons)– Some states make ban permanent (unless

govt. approves individual’s restoration)

Voter Turnout

• Felon Laws– Adoption corresponds with extension of

rights to Black Americans– Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws– By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws

• type of crimes covered changed

Voter Turnout

• Effects of Felon laws– There might not be a decline in turnout– Levels of criminal punishment in US way,

way up– More felons than ever (Why??)

• 9% of US adult population (2010)– 14% in FL, GA

• 2% in 1966

Lots more not eligible

Voter Turnout in the US

• Why a decline

• Regulatory Barriers– Some are falling– Easier to register now, easier to vote by

mail– EDR explains variation in an election, not

since 1960.

Voter Turnout in US

• Maybe no decline?

• Yes, lower after 1960s - 2000– Decline mostly outside of south

• Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline– and criminal ‘justice’ industry

• VAP vs. VEP....

Turnout 2004, 2008

• Change VEP» 2008 2004

– White 66.1% 63.8% -1.1– Black 65.2% 60.3% +4.9– Hispanic 49.9% 47.2% +2.7– Asian 47.0% 44.7% +2.4– All 63.6% 63.8% -0.2

Turnout by Age

• Not quite linear

• Young voters lowest turnout

• Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008

charles franklin data

Turnout by Age

• Not quite linear

• Young voters lowest turnout

• Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008

charles franklin data

Turnout by Age

• Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate

• Greatest under-representation in voting

Turnout by Age

• Under-representation?

• Youth vote by party– 2000 51% Dem– 2004 54% Dem– 2008 66% Dem– 2012 60% Dem

Decline or not...

• Many, most don’t vote

• In many nations, clear decline

• Where are the voters going?– Cohort vs. lifecycle effects

Voter Turnout

• So why don’t young people vote?– efficacy– life experiences re: politics– campaigns don’t care about them?

• ‘Rock to Vote’, “Vote or Die”?• youth vote way up in place where competitive

races (stakes are higher)• youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

Voter Turnout

• So, who votes?• Education• Age (old people rule)

– Cohort and life cycle effects

• Partisans (not independents)• Income • Efficacy

– OK, so what drives efficacy

Voter Turnout

• When & Why do they vote?

• Regular voters– older people and well educated

• Peripheral voters– younger people and less-educated

Voter turnout

• Competitive elections mobilize

• larger effect on young & less educated

• Presidential race 2004– person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th

grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting– person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.

Voter Turnout

• Midterm election (2002)– 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate

race = .37 prob. of voting– 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate

race .77 prob. of voting

– for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

Voter Turnout in US

• What difference would it make if turnout was higher?– Composition of electorate change?

• EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate

• Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone

– greater effect on young, less educated

Voter Turnout in US

• What happens if higher turnout – and low participating groups show up?

• Young people• Less affluent• Ex-felons

Voter Turnout

• Uggen & Manza– Because felons are drawn from ranks of

poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems.

– Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed

– Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws

• Thus changed composition of US Courts