Part III: Tools for Risk Assessment

RADIUS Tool- Simple Damage Estimation Software -

Dr. Carlos Villacis

Software Purposes• To facilitate preliminary estimation of

earthquake damage in developing countries

• To be used by city administrators and general public, not for professional purposes

• To assist in decision making

• To raise awareness of

earthquake risk

Software CharacteristicsGoal: To make it as useful and accesible as possible

• Widely available platform (runs on MS-Excel)

• Simple, user-friendly– Help Function/User Instructions are included– Narrated Demonstration Video is included

• NOT a GIS(Geographic Information System) type of program– A GIS Sample is added for comparison (GIS is a very useful risk-

assessment tool)

Input Data

Program uses commonly available city information

• Shape of target region (entered as a grid)• Population and its distribution• Building Inventory and its distribution• Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions) • Lifelines information• Choice of Scenario Earthquake and its parameters

Output

• Ground Shaking Distribution (PGA or MMI Intensity)

• Building damage

• Lifelines damage

• Human Impact (number of deaths and injuries)

• Summary Tables and Thematic Maps showing the results

Example of Data Input Process• Shape of target region input as a grid

Example for Kobe city

Example of Data Input Process• Specify the City Area using Excel Mesh• Input Total Population and Building Counts

Example of Data Input Process• Input Area ID and Area Name

Example of Data Input ProcessSpecify the Mesh Weight (building, population distribution)

Example of Data Input Process• Input Mesh Weight to distribute the building and

population count

Example of Data Input Process• Specify Ground Characteristics (Soil conditions)

Example of Data Input Process• Input Local Soil Characteristics

Example of Data Input Process• Specify Building Inventory by Area• Percentage of 10 Building Classes in each Area

Example of Data Input Process• Input Building Inventory by Area• Buildings and Population are distributed by Mesh Weight

Example of Data Input Process• Specify and Enter Scenario Earthquake

Output Examples• Building Damage Distribution

Tool Applications

• Understanding of cities’ earthquake risks • Estimation of impact of past well-known

earthquakes• Estimation of impact of any number of

possible future earthquakes• Delineation of planning policies by decision

makers• Education and risk awareness of the public

Incorporating DRM in Urban Planning

Tijuana

Antofagasta

Katmandú

Dehradun

Working with local organizations

Training to Kathmandu City officers

Public seminar in Antofagasta to discuss project findings

Working session with Tijuana planners

Results

2003 2007

2012 2022

Developing solutions…

2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6

1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 5 5 5 6 6 7 7

1 1 1 1 1 6 6 7 7 7

1 1 1 7 7 7 8

1 1 7 8 8 8

8 8 9

9 9

9

9

CRÍTICO

ALTA MEDIA BAJA LEVEL RISK - Antofagasta -Chile

Tangible Products

Seismic scenarios

Development plans

Local Capacity Building

Tangible Products

Mitigation Options

Mitigation Option 4

Mitigation Option 3

Mitigation Option 2

Mitigation Option 1

Risk Reduction Potential

30% 60% 90%

Cost= $

Cost= $$$

Cost= $$

Cost= $$

Tangible Products

Reducción de Riesgo

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Años

Mile

s d

e P

ers

on

as e

n R

iesg

o

a

b

c

d

e

Curve e = Investing $15 Mill. in 25 years

Investing to reduce Tijuana’s risk

END

Thank you for your Attention.