Palm Springs, California 7-10 September 2014Southern California Earthquake Center 2014 SCEC Annual...

Southern California Earthquake Center

2014 SCEC Annual Meeting!

Palm Springs, California!7-10 September 2014!

Welcome Back to Palm Springs!!

AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD http://www.scec.org/meetings/2014am/SCEC2014Program.pdf

Goals of the Annual Meeting!

•  Discuss SCEC collaborative research –  Learn about new advances in earthquake science –  Share research results and collaboration plans

•  Assess progress on key SCEC4 objectives –  Six fundamental problems of earthquake science –  Special Fault Study Areas –  Community Geodetic Model & Community Stress Model –  Communication, Education & Outreach

•  Gear up for the SCEC5 proposal –  To be submitted to NSF & USGS by Oct 1, 2015

•  Have some fun in the sun – or rain!

Southern California Earthquake Center SCEC Member Institutions (Sept 1, 2014)!

For those of you attending this meeting who don’t see your institution on this list, please note that it’s easy to apply.

We just need a letter from a cognizant official (e.g., your department chair or dean) that requests this status and appoints an institutional representative who will act as the point-of-contact with SCEC.

Core Institutions "& "Board of Directors!

Judi Chester (TAMU)"

Roland Burgmann (UCB)"

Figure 2. The SCEC4 organization chart, showing the disciplinary committees (green), focus groups (yellow), special projects (pink), CEO activities (orange), management offices (blue), and the external advisory council (white).

Southern California Earthquake Center "External Advisory Council!

SCEC4 Science Plan ""

Six Fundamental Problems in Earthquake Science!

1.  Stress transfer from plate motion to crustal faults: long-term fault slip rates

2.  Stress-mediated fault interactions and earthquake clustering: evaluation of mechanisms

3.  Evolution of fault resistance during seismic slip: scale-appropriate laws for rupture modeling

4.  Structure and evolution of fault zones and systems: relation to earthquake physics

5.  Causes and effects of transient deformations: slow slip events and tectonic tremor

6.  Seismic wave generation and scattering: prediction of strong ground motions

Science Working Groups & Planning Committee!

Deputy Director Greg Beroza

SCEC Staff!

SCEC Leadership Evolution!

•  Search for a new SCEC director has not delivered a candidate in time to lead the SCEC5 proposal process –  USC has agreed that an international search for a new director

will resume after a brief strategic pause

•  I have recommended modifications to the SCEC leadership structure with two goals: –  Strengthen the SCEC5 proposal process

–  Facilitate the leadership transition process

•  Structural modifications have been accepted by the SCEC Board of Directors –  SCEC by-laws has been changed to recognize these

modifications

–  The BoD is contemplating further changes

•  Greg Beroza is appointed as the SCEC Co-Director –  effective at this meeting

•  Responsibilities of the Co-Director –  Chair of the Planning Committee –  Principal Investigator on some SCEC

special projects –  Co-Principal Investigator on the SCEC5

proposal

•  In addition, the Co-Director will work with the Director on –  long-range planning and proposal

formulation –  enforcing the SCEC dress code

•  New leadership position, Vice-Chair of the Planning Committee (PC-VC)

•  The PC-VC will work with the Co-Director to –  facilitate the drafting of the annual science

plan and the SCEC5 proposal

–  review submitted proposals and formulate the annual collaboration plan

–  plan the annual meeting

–  prepare the annual report to the funding agencies

•  Judi Chester has been appointed as the first PC-VC!

•  New SCEC position: Executive Science Director for Special Projects (ESD-SP) –  Ph.D. with 5 or more years of research

experience.

•  The ESD-SP will work with the Director and Co-Director to –  formulate and manage the science plans of

SCEC special projects

–  coordinate special projects with the core program

–  develop new special projects

•  Now taking nominations and applications!

SCEC Base Program!

All SCEC Programs!

Total SCEC funding

SCEC Special Projects!

•  Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

•  Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)

•  Community Modeling Environment (CME) –  BroadBand platform

–  CyberShake platform

–  F3DT platform

–  High-F platform

UCERF3 Model >200,000 different rupture types

(Field et al. 2013)

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2013)""

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)!

•  Time-independent forecast (UCERF3-TI) incorporated into NSHMP

•  Long-term forecast (UCERF3-TD has been finalized and submitted to BSSA

•  Short-term component (UCERF3-ETAS) is still under development

Los Angeles

Zurich

Wellington

GNS Science Testing Center

Japan 217 models

ERI Testing Center

Italy 48 models

EU Testing Center

California 86 models

SCEC Testing Center

Testing Center

Upcoming

Testing Region

Upcoming

Global 13 models

Beijing

China Testing Center

North-South Seismic Belt

Oceanic Transform Faults 1 model

New Zealand 53 models

CSEP Testing Regions & Testing Centers

434 models under test in September, 2014

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability!Infrastructure for automated, blind, prospective testing of forecasting models

in a variety of tectonic environments and on a global scale

Western Pacific 16 models

SCEC Computational Pathways!

Earthquake Rupture Forecast

Empirical GMPE

Other Data Geology Geodesy

AWP Ground Motions NSR

2!KFR AWP DFR

PM ERM DM FM

Structural Representation

3! Dynamic rupture model of fractal roughness on SAF

2! CyberShake 14.2 seismic hazard model for LA region

Los Angeles

SA-3s, 2% PoE in 50 years

4! Full-3D tomographic model CVM-S4.26 of S. California

depth = 6 km

Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

UCERF3

TACC Stampede NCSA Blue Waters OLCF Titan ALCF Mira

Intensity Measures

CVM-S4.26"Full-3D tomography model of Southern California crustal structure!

•  CVM-S4 starting model •  26th iterate of a full-3D tomographic (F3DT)

inversion procedure using ~ 550,000 differential waveform measurements at f ≤ 0.2 Hz

•  38,000 earthquake seismograms •  12,000 ambient-noise Green functions

CVM-S4.26 BBP-1D

Comparison of 1D and 3D CyberShake Models for the Los Angeles Region!

1.  lower near-fault intensities due to 3D scattering 2.  much higher intensities in near-fault basins 3.  higher intensities in the Los Angeles basins 4.  lower intensities in hard-rock areas

03/28/14 La Habra Earthquake (M5.1)!

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−S4 SDD

time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−S4.26 SDD

time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−H11.9 SDD

time(sec)

CS11: CVM-S4 CS14.2: CVM-S4.26 CS13.4: CVM-H11.9

Station SDD Observed in black Synthetic in red

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−S4 EDW2

time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−S4.26 EDW2

time(sec)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

CVM−H11.9 EDW2

time(sec)

CS11: CVM-S4 CS14.2: CVM-S4.26 CS13.4: CVM-H11.9

Station EDW2 Observed in black Synthetic in red

fault roughness near-fault plasticity frequency-dependent attenuation topography small-scale near-surface heterogeneity near-surface nonlinearity

High-F modeling

must validate

new physics

High-F Project!

1000 s

.001 Hz

.01 Hz

period

frequency

low-order free oscillations mantle waves

crustal waves basin waves

strongly scattered waves

Seismic band

physics-based deterministic SCEC simulations

2014 empirical stochastic

physics-based deterministic

empirical stochastic

physics-based stochastic

SCEC simulations

CyberShake 0.5 Hz

Earthquake engineering band tall buildings houses stiff structures

High-F modeling

must validate

new physics

High-F Project!

1000 s

.001 Hz

.01 Hz

period

frequency

Seismic band

SCEC simulations

CyberShake 0.5 Hz

High-F modeling

must validate

new physics

High-F Project!

1000 s

.001 Hz

.01 Hz

period

frequency

Seismic band

SCEC simulations

CyberShake 0.5 Hz

SORD dynamic rupture model UCVM stochastic heterogeneity x1

planar free surface ( x2 = 0 )

rough fault surface

−25 −20 −15 −10 −5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5505101520

−20−10

nucleation center at (x1, x2) = (0 km, 12 km)

High-F modeling

must validate

new physics

High-F Project!

1000 s

.001 Hz

.01 Hz

period

frequency

Seismic band

SCEC simulations

CyberShake 0.5 Hz

2002" 2003" 2004" 2005" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014"

Millions"of"A

lloca6o

re:hou

CME"Alloca6on"Year"

Service'Units'on'NSF'TeraGrid/XSEDE'Resources'

CPU'Hours'on'NSF'Blue'Waters'

Service'Units'on'NSF'Yellowstone'

Service'Units'on'DOE'INCITE'Resources'

Service'Units'on'USC'Resources'

SCEC/CME’s use of HPC resources is growing rapidly!

$0.01$TF/s$

$0.10$TF/s$

1$TF/s$

10$TF/s$

100$TF/s$

1,000$TF/s$

10,000$TF/s$

100,000$TF/s$

1,000,000$TF/s$

10,000,000$TF/s$

2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ 2016$ 2017$ 2018$Year

SCEC needs extreme-scale computing!

!!!!!Sustained!SCEC!measured(performance(for(a(single(milestone(capability(simula4on(

SCEC Initiatives!

•  Extreme-Scale Computing

–  To be supported by NSF and DOE

•  California Crustal Structure –  To be supported by California utilities

•  Earthquake Forecasting

–  To be supported by W. M. Keck Foundation

•  Goal: Collaborate with NSF and DOE leadership-class facilities to push the limits of extreme-scale computing by developing software for earthquake system science

–  Develop codes that can achieve robustness, scalability, and computational efficiency on next-generation supercomputers

–  Engage software and hardware developers in earthquake system science as a means for vertical integration of HPC cyberinfrastructure

•  Software development plan focused on three computational pathways: –  large suites (> 106) of extended-source kinematic simulations to populate

physics-based hazard models (CyberShake platform)

–  moderate-sized suites (~ 104) of dynamic earthquake simulations to study the effects of material heterogeneities and nonlinearities on wave excitation and propagation (High-F platform)

–  large suites (> 106) of compact-source kinematic simulations for full-3D tomographic inversions (F3DT platform)

SCEC Initiative in Extreme-Scale Computing!

•  Goal: to improve PSHA by reducing the epistemic uncertainties in the modeling of 3D path effects

–  Achieving this goal will require the gathering of new seismic data

•  Initial study phase will be focused in central California

–  Centered on the Diablo Canyon NPP

–  Initiated in January, 2015 •  Later phases could

potentially extend structural studies statewide

–  Long-term (10-yr) sponsorship by California utilities

Central California Seismic Project!

SCEC USR J. Shaw & A. Plesch Limit of current

full-3D tomography in CVM-H

Central California Seismic Project!

AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD http://www.scec.org/meetings/2014am/SCEC2014Program.pdf

Agenda!

Palm Springs, California 7-10 September 2014Southern California Earthquake Center 2014 SCEC Annual...

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