OWL NEWSMONDAY

INTRODUCTION

Welcome I’m chitto

HINDI CHINI HINDI CHINI BHAI BHAIBHAI BHAI

HINDI CHINI HINDI CHINI BHAI BHAIBHAI BHAI

SCOPESCOPE• PART I - GEO-POLITICAL/STRATEGIC

IMPORTANCE OF CHINA

• PART II -CHINESE ECONOMY

• PART III - CHINA’S ARMED FORCES

• PART IV - FOREIGN RELATIONS

• PART V - CHINA IN THE YEAR 2010

PART I

An ancient Chinese missionary student is supposed to have lamented

“Chinese

history

is rem

ote,

obscure

and monotonous, w

orst of

all, there

is too m

uch of it

”

LOCATION AND SIZE

• CHINA LIES BETWEEN

– LONGITUDE 78º 08´ E AND 135º 05´ E

– LATITUDE 18º 09´ N AND 53º 34´ N

LOCATION AND SIZE

• THE LANDMASS

– GENERALLY SLOPES FROM WEST TO EAST

– ELEVATION VARYING FROM 8000 M ABOVE SEA LEVEL TO 150 M BELOW SEA LEVEL

LOCATION AND SIZE

• SIZE

– THIRD LARGEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD AFTER RUSSIA AND CANADA

– LARGEST IN ASIA, WITH AN AREA OF 9,562,904 SQUARE KM

POPULATION

• MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY IN THE

WORLD

• APPROXIMATELY 1.2 BILLION

PEOPLE

POPULATION

• 93.3% POPULATION IS HAN CHINESE

• BALANCE A MIX OF VARIOUS NATIONALITIES

RELIGION AND LANGUAGE

• MOST IMPORTANT RELIGIONS ARE:-

– CONFUCIANISM

– TAOISM

– BUDDHISM

– MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS

RELIGION AND LANGUAGE

• MAIN LANGUAGE IS MANDARIN

• LITERACY RATE 85 %

DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN

• DENSITY-107 PER SQUARE KM

• DISTRIBUTION IS UNEVEN

• POPULATION CROWDED INTO 45% OF THE LAND

DEMOGRAPHIC PATTERN

• PROVINCES LIKE JIANG HAVE DENSITY OF 2000 PER SQUARE KM

• URBAN POPULATION IS 35% OF THE TOTAL

CHINESE CIVILISATION

• ORIGINATED IN AREA OF YELLOW

RIVER

• CHANGS STARTED DYNASTIC RULE AND

CONTINUED TO RULE TILL AROUND 214

B C

CHINESE CIVILISATION

• CHANGS OVERTHROWN BY ZHOU

DYNASTY

• ZHOU DYNASTY FOLLOWED BY QUIN

DYNASTY

CHINESE CIVILISATION

• QUIN DYNASTY FOLLOWED BY HANS & SONGS

• FINALLY MONGOLS RULED FROM 1279 AD TO 1368 AD

• MING DYNASTY TOOK THE REINS IN 1368 AD

CHINESE CIVILISATION

• OCCUPATION OF CHINA BY MANCHUS IN 1688

• MANCHU EMPIRE BEGAN TO CRUMBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE

• POLICY OF ISOLATION BEGAN TO BREAKDOWN

• CHINA LAGGED BEHIND

• SPREAD OF CHRISTIANITY UNDERMINED RELIGIOUS UNITY

DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE

• OPIUM WARS FROM 1839 - 42 AND 1856-60 LOST BY CHINESE

• FORFEITED HONG KONG TO BRITISH

DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE

• COMPLETE COLONISATION AVERTED

• NUMBER OF PORTS OPENED

DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE

• CHINESE SLIDE CONTINUED

• LOSSES IN WARS, WITH FRANCE AND BRITAIN, JAPAN, RUSSIA AND US

• MOUNTING DISSATISFACTION PRECIPITATED ANOTHER UPRISING IN 1900

DECLINE OF MANCHU RULE

• REVOLUTIONISTS IN 1911 OVERTHREW THE CHING REGIME

• THIS MADE CHINA TECHNICALLY A REPUBLIC

MODERN CHINA

• POLITICAL HISTORY OF REPUBLIC’S FIRST YEAR WAS TUMULTUOUS

• CIVIL WAR BROKE OUT IN 1917

• IN 1926, CHIANG-KAI-SHEK, OVERTHREW THE GOVERNMENT

MODERN CHINA

• COMMUNISTS ENGINEERED A COUP AGAINST CHIANG-KAI-SHEK IN DECEMBER 1936

• IN JANUARY 1949 BEIJING TAKEN OVER BY COMMUNISTS

• CHIANG AND HIS NATIONALISTS FLED TO TAIWAN

MODERN CHINA

• CHIANG PROCLAIMED TAIPEI AS THE TEMPORARY CAPITAL

• COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT CONSOLIDATED ON THE MAINLAND BY 1ST OCTOBER 1949

• RECOGNISED BY USSR, GREAT BRITAIN AND INDIA

COMMUNIST RULE UNDER MAO

• CULTURAL REVOLUTION

• HUNDRED FLOWERS MOVEMENT

• GREAT LEAP FORWARD

ERA OF DENG XIAO PING

• EMERGENCE FROM THE BAMBOO CURTAIN

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CULTURAL AND SOCIAL

DEVELOPMENT

CULTURE

• PROUD OF CULTURAL ANTECEDENTS

• CONSIDER CHINA CENTRE OF WORLD

• UNITY OF CHINA - AN ACHIEVEMENT

MODERN CHINESE CULTURE

• RISE OF MAO TSE TUNG

• ABOLITION OF THE CLASS SYSTEM

• ESTABLISHMENT OF COMMUNISM

• THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION

MODERN CHINESE CULTURE

• CHINESE TRADITIONAL THOUGHTS CENTRED AROUND TWO ANCIENT CUSTOMS

– TRANSFERENCE OF GODS INTO HUMAN BEINGS

– THE BELIEF THAT A PERSON LIVES THROUGH HIS DESCENDANTS

CUSTOMS

• CONCUBINAGE AND POLYGAMY

• PATRIARCHIAL FAMILY SET UP

• HIERARCHICAL SOCIETY

ART

• POETRY WAS PRODUCED EN-MASS

• PAINTINGS

• JADE ARTISTRY

• POTTERY

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GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

• EURASIA HAS THE WORLD’S SIX

LARGEST ECONOMIES AND MILITARY

SPENDERS

GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

• CHINA, RUSSIA, INDIA AND SE ASIA ARE IN THIS REGION

GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

• THE REGION ACCOUNTS FOR

– 75% OF THE WORLD POPULATION

– 60% OF THE WORLD’S GNP

– 75% OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY RESOURCES

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ASSETS

• LARGE LANDMASS

• VAST MANPOWER RESOURCES AND CHEAP LABOUR

• ABUNDANT NATURAL RESOURCES

ASSETS

• COASTAL FRONTIERS OF ABOUT 5800 KILOMETRES, FAVOURING OCEAN TRADE

• NATURAL FRONTIER OBSTACLES ON ALL SIDES

ASSETS

• A HIGH LITERACY RATE OF 85%

• A WELL DEVELOPED COMMUNICATION SYSTEM OF INLAND WATER TRANSPORT, ROADS AND RAILWAYS

LIABILITIES

• ONLY 11% OF THE TOTAL LAND IS ARABLE

• EXCESS POPULATION PRESSURE ON EAST AND SOUTH EAST CHINA

• DIFFICULT TERRAIN, WHICH IMPEDES DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH AND NORTH-EAST CHINA

CHINESE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE

• CHINA WELL POISED TO BECOME A WORLD LEADER

• CAN EXERCISE DIRECT INFLUENCE ON

– THE SOUTH/EAST CHINA SEA

– BAY OF BENGAL

– THE ARABIAN SEA

– CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS

RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBOURS

• ONLY COUNTRY TO HAVE 16 NEIGHBOURS

– MAINTAINS GOOD RELATIONS WITH SOME

– INDIFFERENT TO OTHERS

• SINO – PAK ALLIANCE SURVIVED MANY UPHEAVALS

• SETTLING BORDER DISPUTES WITH HER NEIGHBOURS

• INDIA IS ONLY COUNTRY WITH UNRESOLVED BORDER DISPUTE

RELATIONSHIP WITH NEIGHBOURS

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JOIN THE DSSCAT WELLINGTON

• FREE ! FREE ! FREE ! ONE YEAR OF HOLIDAY AND FUN.(THAT’S IF ONE CALLS THIS FUN )

• FREE HORSE RIDING, ANGLING, TREKKING ETC.

• BRING YOUR KIDS ALONG, BUT MAKE ARRANGEMENTS TO LOOK AFTER THEM.

• THAT IS NOT ALL, FREE LESSONS IN PUBLIC SPEAKING AND CRITICISM.

• LADIES CAN KEEP BUSY DOING ITOW AND COMPUTER CLASSES.

• SPECIALLY ARRANGEGED DIPLOMAS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE.

• COME ONE COME ALL, JOIN THE DSSC.

PART II

ECONOMY

• CHINA IS CALLED AN AWAKENED DRAGON

• HAS A TRADE TURNOVER EXCEEDING $196 BILLION

• EXPECTED TO OVER TAKE THE ECONOMIES OF GERMANY AND JAPAN

ECONOMY

• FAILED TO ENTER THE ERA OF MODERN ECONOMIC GROWTH UNTIL 1949

• INCREASED RAPIDLY AFTER 1949

• LIMITED RESOURCES FOR INVESTMENT PREVENTED CHINA FROM PRODUCING ADVANCED EQUIPMENT

ECONOMY

• ERA OF ECONOMIC REFORM

• THE RESPONSIBILITY SYSTEM OF

PRODUCTION IN AGRICULTURE

ECONOMY

• ROLE OF GOVERNMENT WAS

REDUCED IN MOST OTHER SECTORS

• EACH NEW POLICY PERIOD

RETAINED MOST OF THE EXISTING

ECONOMIC ORGANISATION

ECONOMY

• BY 1956, 67.5 % OF ALL MODERN

INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES WERE

STATE OWNED

ECONOMY

• BETWEEN 1952 AND 1957 INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION INCREASED AT A RATE OF 19

%

• NATIONAL INCOME GREW AT A RATE OF

9 % A YEAR

• 'THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD'

ECONOMY

• ECONOMIC STABILITY WAS RESTORED BETWEEN 1961-65

• BY 1966, PRODUCTION IN BOTH AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY SURPASSED THE GREAT LEAP FORWARD PERIOD

ECONOMY

• INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 14 % IN 1977 AND 13 % IN 1978

• AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION WAS STIMULATED IN 1979 BY AN INCREASE OF OVER 22 % IN THE PROCUREMENT PRICES

ECONOMY

• FOREIGN-TRADE PROCEDURES WERE

GREATLY EASED

• THE ROLE OF FREE MARKETS FOR

FARM PRODUCE WAS FURTHER

EXPANDED

ECONOMY

• FARM INCOMES ROSE RAPIDLY

• FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS

$ 24.2 b IN THE FIRST HALF OF

1998

ECONOMY

• BY 1987, THE ECONOMY MADE

MAJOR STRIDES TOWARDS

IMPROVING LIVING STANDARDS

ECONOMY• THE EFFICIENCY AND

PRODUCTIVITY WAS GREATLY INCREASED BY

– REVIVAL OF THE EDUCATION SYSTEM

– OPENING OF THE ECONOMY TO BROADER TRADE

– THE EXPANDED USE OF THE MARKET TO VITALISE COMMERCE

ECONOMY

• INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES DISPERSED

• GROWING POOL OF TECHNICIANS

ECONOMIC REFORMS

• DENG XIAO PENG ERA

• FOUR POINT MODERNISATION PROGRAMME

• SHARPLY REDUCED AGRICULTURAL YIELDS IN 1950s AND 1960s

ECONOMIC REFORMS

• DENG XIAO PENG ERA

– AFTER 1979, PEASANT HOUSEHOLDS

WERE ALLOCATED THEIR OWN PLOTS

OF LAND UNDER CONTRACT

ECONOMIC REFORMS

• DENG XIAO PENG ERA

• ALLOWED TO SELL THE SURPLUS IN

THE MARKET

• THE AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH

RATE OF AGRICULTURAL ROSE TO

5.2 %

ECONOMIC REFORMS

• BETWEEN LATE 70s AND 90s THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCREASED AT A RATE OF 10.8%

• THE COAL OUTPUT HAS DOUBLED

• ELECTRICITY HAS INCREASED BY THREE TIMES

• STEEL PRODUCTION BY TWO AND HALF TIMES

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS

• LOST SCIENTISTS AND TECHNICIANS DURING THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION

• CHINA TILL RECENTLY BELIEVED IN THE "COPY-BOOK" TECHNOLOGY (REVERSE ENGINEERING)

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS

• THE THRUST WAS ON QUANTITY AND NOT QUALITY BEFORE REFORMS

• NOW THE THRUST IN CHINA IS FOCUSSING ON QUALITY

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS• 5000 RESEARCH INSTITUTES

FUNDED BY BEIJING

• BY 1997 : 27 MILLION PROFESSIONALS AND TECHNICIANS

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS

• SCIENTIFIC EXPENDITURE IN 1997

WAS $ 6.88 BILLION

• 33,000 KEY RESULTS, 62,000 PATENT

APPLICATIONS APPROVED

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY REFORMS

• 2.46 LAKH CONTRACTS OF TRANSFER

OF TECHNOLOGY

• THE VALUES OF TRANSACTIONS

WERE $2.53 BILLION

PLA AND INDUSTRY

• CONVERSION OF MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES FOR PRODUCING CIVILIAN GOODS A BOOMING SUCCESS

• THE PLA HAS SOME 10,000 VENTURES, WHICH BRING IN AN ANNUAL PROFIT OF 5 TO 6 BILLION DOLLARS

FOREIGN TRADE

• FOREIGN TRADE FOR 1992 HAD BEEN EQUAL TO THAT FOR THE PREVIOUS 13 YEARS

• FOREIGN TRADE IN 1993 WAS ITSELF TWICE AS THAT OF 1992

• SHOWN A SUSTAINED GROWTH RATE OF OVER 10% DURING THAT PERIOD

FOREIGN TRADE

• HOWEVER THE YEARS AFTER 1992 IT HAS SHOWN A REDUCTION IN GROWTH RATE

• SEEMS POISED TO BECOME THE WORLD'S LARGEST ECONOMY BY 2010

FOREIGN INVESTMENT

• CHOSEN TO ATTRACT FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

• MULTINATIONAL COMPANIES WERE ENCOURAGED BECAUSE OF TWO REASONS

– TO PRODUCE GOODS AND SERVICES AT HIGHLY COMPETITIVE RATES

– INFLOW SERVED AS A SHAKE UP TO THE STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY

• IN 1993, ADOPTED 'CONSTRUCTION OF THE SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY’

• RECOGNITION OF THE COMPATIBILITY OF MARKET FORCES AND SOCIALIST IDEOLOGY

SOCIALIST MARKET ECONOMY

• IMPRESSIVE GROWTH RATE OF THE GDP RECORDED BY THE CHINESE ECONOMY

• THE CAPITAL GOODS SEGMENT HAVE OUTPERFORMED THE GDP

MARKET REFORMS

• REALISED THAT SUCCESS OF REFORMS DEPENDS ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

• CONCENTRATED ON DEVELOPING A SOUND INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE AGRICULTURAL

MARKET REFORMS

• REFORMS INTRODUCED AS SMALL SCALE EXPERIMENTS ON REGIONAL BASIS

• THE EMPHASIS OF ALL THE REFORMS HAS BEEN OUTWARD LOOKING TO ATTRACT FDI

OBSTACLES IN MARKET REFORMS

• SHORT TERM PROSPECTS PRESENT A VERY ROSY PICTURE

• A NEED TO SERIOUSLY ADDRESS LONG TERM MACRO ECONOMIC IMBALANCES

• MANY IDEOLOGICAL CONTRADICTIONS

OBSTACLES IN MARKET REFORMS

• 85% OF FDI CONFINED TO THE COASTAL REGIONS

• SUPPLY BOTTLENECKS IN ENERGY AND RAW MATERIALS

• DISPARITY BETWEEN REGIONS IN INCOME AND STANDARD OF LIVING

• MAY MANIFEST INTO STRIFE

PROBLEM AREAS

• INCREASING BUDGET DEFICIT

• VAST STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES SECTOR

• BOTH ASPECTS CANNOT BE READILY CORRECTED

PROBLEM AREAS

• THE VAST POPULATION OF CHINA HAS RESULTED EXCESSIVE ORGANISATION

• GROWING DISSATISFACTION OF PEASANTRY

• FOOD SHORTAGE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CENTRAL FORCES

PROBLEM AREAS

• THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE A SERIOUS BOTTLE NECK

• REFORMS INSEPARABLY LINKED WITH THE CONTINUITY OF SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY

SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS

• CAREFULLY CULTIVATED THE US BUSINESS COMMUNITY

• THEIR AMBASSADORS INFLUENCE US DECISION MAKING BODIES

• HAS REACH IN EVERY BRANCH OF THE US GOVERNMENT

SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS

• DESPITE DIVERGENT VIEWS, THE USA HAS BEEN REVIEWING & RENEWING THE MFN STATUS

• USA HAS DE-LINKED THE HUMAN RIGHTS PERFORMANCE FROM TRADE

“Trade is not the most effective way to pressurise china to improve its human rights record”

• US SECRETARY OF COMMERCE

SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS

• ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF USA DEPENDS ON

– LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY

– STABLE PATTERN OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE

– INVOLVES TARGETING NEW AND LARGE MARKETS

SINO - US ECONOMIC RELATIONS

• IN THE ECONOMIC EQUATION USA IS A DISADVANTAGED PARTNER

• NOT RENEWING THE MFN STATUS WOULD AFFECT 10% OF CHINESE EXPORTS

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PARTS OF SPEECH

– NOUN– PRONOUN– ADJECTIVE– VERB– ADVERB– PREPOSITION– CONJUNCTION– INTERJECTION

SORRY

SNaFU(Standard Naval F’ Up)

DEFINITION AS PER JSSD VOL III

PARTS OF SPEECH

• World Trade Organisation• Sino-Indian Defence Strategy• 1962 War• Crystal Ball Gazing• Maritime Air Operations• ABC of World Economy• IMF Graph• Black Magic

DS• BEFORE RELEGATION

DIRECTED STUFF

• AFTER RELEGATION

DIRECTING STAFF

HINDI CHEENEE BYE BYE

MAO

Delhi – HeldiKuthar – ThakurMahe – HemaChetak – Katcha

Shankush – Sushkhan MAO – O Ma

% W

OR

LD

’S G

DP

YEAR2000

ATTRACTIONS IN DECEMBER

• HRD CAPSULE

• PAK AND CHINA CONFIDENTIAL

• EMP OF STK CORPS

• MID TERM BREAK.

DON’T MISS THEM.

THE PLA

THE PEOPLES LIBERATION ARMY

CONSISTS OF

– THE ARMY

– THE NAVY

– THE AIR FORCE

DOCTRINE

• NO MAJOR WAR IS GOING TO BE FOUGHT IN THE NEAR FUTURE

• PROPELLED HER INTO A DOCTRINE CALLED ‘PEOPLES WAR UNDER MODERN CONDITIONS’

• CREATION OF THE RAPID REACTION FORCE

•DOCTRINE

• THE PLA IN FUTURE CONFLICT IS

EXPECTED TO OCCUPY DISPUTED

AREAS WITH A HIGH-TECH ARMY

• THEREAFTER, LEAVE IT TO THE

POLITICAL LEADERS TO NEGOTIATE

FAVOURABLY

ARMY

• WORLD’S LARGEST MILITARY

FORCE

• DEFENCE BUDGET $ 10 8 Bn

• PLA STRENGTH 3 MILLION

ARMY

• ARMY 2 2 MILLION MEN (80% OF THE PLA’S TOTAL MANPOWER)

• CONSIDERED TO BE A DEFENSIVE FORCE

• LACKS LOGISTICS SUPPORT FOR PROTRACTED LARGE-SCALE OPERATIONS

ROLES ASSIGNED TO THE PLA

• TO DEFEND THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE PRC

• TO DETER ATTACK BY ANY NATION

ROLES ASSIGNED TO THE PLA

• TO ASSIST IN THE MAINTENANCE OF

INTERNAL SECURITY IN PRC

• TO SUPPORT THE FOREIGN POLICY

OBJECTIVES OF PRC

ORGANISATION

• CHINA IS DIVIDED INTO 7 MILITARY REGIONS

SHENYANG

JINAN

ARMY

• THE ERSTWHILE 35 FIELD

ARMIES HAVE BEEN SEEN

REORGANISED INTO 21

INTEGRATED GROUP ARMIES

ARMY• CONSCRIPTION IS COMPULSORY BUT

SELECTIVE

• ONLY SOME OF THE POTENTIAL RESERVIST ARE CALLED UP

• SERVICE IS THREE YEARS WITH THE ARMY, FOUR YEARS WITH THE AF AND NAVY

COMPOSITION OF GP ARMIES

• 78 INF DIVS

• 10 ARMD

• 5 ARTY DIVS

• 15 ENGR REGTS

• PMF 1.2 MILLION

TYPES OF GP ARMIES

• PLAINS

• MOUNTAINS

• FRONTIER/COASTAL

ARMY EQPT HOLDINGS• MBT 8,800

• LT TANKS 1,200

• AFV/ICV 5,500

• TOWED ARTY 14,500

• HEPTRS 130

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NAVY(PLAN)

• THE END OF COLD WAR HAS LEFT A VACUUM IN EXTRA REGIONAL NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

• CHINA CONSIDERS HER RIGHT TO BE THE SUCCESSOR TO THE USSR AND US FLEETS

NAVY(PLAN)

• CHINESE MARITIME DEVELOPMENTS

STARTED IN 1960s

• SHIP YARD EXPANSION AND SHIP

BUILDING RECEIVED DUE

ATTENTION FROM THE BEGINNING

OF THIS DECADE

NAVY(PLAN)

• THE PLA NAVY (PLAN) IS LARGE AND HAS INDEPENDENT AIR ARM

• MODERNISATION OF PLAN INCLUDES UPGRADING OF SHIPBOARD WEAPON SYSTEMS

NAVY(PLAN)

• BUILDING LARGE DESTROYERS

EQUIPPED WITH WESTERN

TECHNOLOGY

• BUILDING LARGE BATTLESHIPS

FITTED WITH MISSILES AND

ADVANCED ELECTRONICS

NAVY(PLAN)

• EXPECTED TO EITHER BUILD OR BUY SEVERAL LIGHT AIRCRAFT CARRIERS BY 2026

ORGANIZATION OF PLAN

• THE PLAN IS ORGANISED IN

– NORTH SEA FLEET

– SOUTH SEA FLEET

– EAST SEA FLEET

NORTH SEA FLEET

QINGDAO

DONSHAN

SOUTH SEA FLEET

DONSHAN

ZHANJIANG

EAST SEA FLEETLIANYUNGANG

SHANGHAI

DONGSHAN

TOTAL ASSETS

• HAS 18 BASES WHICH CAN TAKE UP

TO ABOUT 1850 VESSELS

• THE CHINESE NAVY IS 2,60,000 MEN

STRONG

TOTAL ASSETS

• 54 SURFACE WARSHIPS, 860 COASTAL

VESSELS AND 105 SUBMARINES

• OF THESE ONE IS ‘XIA’ CLASS SSBN

AND THREE ARE ‘HAN’ CLASS SSNS

TOTAL ASSETS

• SUBMARINES 63

• DESTROYERS 18

• FRIGATES 35

• MISSILE CRAFT 163

• MINE LAYER 1

• MINE SWEEPERS 118

• LST 73

• COMBAT AC 541

• HEPTRS 25 (ARMED)

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SOVIET SUPPLIED AIRCRAFT

• MIG - 15, 17, 19 AND 21

• IL -28

• TU - 4

PLAAF ORGANISATION

• BASED ON SOVIET PATTERN

• 12 AIRCRAFT PER SQN

• 03 SQN PER REGMENT

• 03 REGMENT PER AIR DIVISION

ROLES ASSIGNED

• AIR DEFENCE

• GROUND ATTACK

• TACTICAL BOMBING

PLA AF HOLDING

• FIGHTERS 4100 ( F-6,A-5,

F- 7,F-8,Q-5)

• BOMBERS 400

• TRANSPORT 400

• RECCE 290

• HEPTRS 210

MODERNISATION• AIRCRAFT ACQUISITION ( SU-27, MIG 31)• AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS• DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIROLE

AGILE AIRCRAFT • MOU WITH INDIA AND KOREA

FOR TRANSPORT AIRCRAFT

MODERNISATION

• AVIONICS FOR SURVEILLANCE AND RECCONAISSANCE

• ASI-5 MULTIMODE FIRE CONTROL RADAR

• DAY/NIGHT IMAGING PODS

DF-5 (CSS-4) ICBM/MIRV NUCLEAR 15000 KM

DF-4 (CSS-3) ICBM NUCLEAR 7000 KM

DF-5 (CSS-2) IRBM NUCLEAR 2700 KM

JL1 SLBM NUCLEAR 2200 -3000 KM

DF-31 ICBM NUCLEAR >8000 KM

STRATEGIC MISSILES

LEGEND

AIRFIELD

ROAD

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CHINESE NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

“HOW MIGHT CHINA USE

THE ATOM BOMB?”

OBJECTIVES OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

• NATIONAL SECURITY BY DETERRING

AN ATTACK BY A SUPER POWER

• ESTABLISH INTERNATIONAL

NEGOTIATING POSITION FROM A

POSITION OF STRENGTH

OBJECTIVES OF NUCLEAR CAPABILITY

• TO BREAK THE NUCLEAR

MONOPOLY OF WORLD SUPER

POWERS

NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

• BEGAN NUCLEAR DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME WITH THE HELP OF ERSTWHILE SOVIET UNION IN 1950s

• DUE TO CONFLICTS WITH USSR DECIDED TO GO AHEAD ON HER OWN

NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

• IT IS SUSPECTED THAT NUCLEAR

TECHNOLOGY WAS STOLEN FROM

THE USA BY CHINA

NUCLEAR ARSENAL

• 400 WARHEADS

• SECOND ARTY CORPS RESPONSIBLE FOR DELIVERY

• DELIVERY BY FIGHTER AIRCRAFT

CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY

• AMBIGUOUS IN CONTRAST WITH

THAT OF RUSSIA AND THE USA

• FINAL AUTHORITY FOR THE USE

RESTS WITH THE PARTY

CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY

• BELIEVES IN ‘FLEXIBLE RESPONSE

STRATEGY’

• RETAIN THE OPTION OF SELECTIVE

DETERRENCE

CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY

• TO FORCE NUCLEAR INACTION BY

FRIGHTENING THE ADVERSARY

• PLEDGES NOT TO BE THE FIRST TO

USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS

CHINESE NUCLEAR STRATEGY

• USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS WITHIN

OWN TERRITORY AGAINST AN

INVADING ARMY IS NOT A

VIOLATION OF THE PLEDGE

TRI-POLAR DETERRENCE

• TWO PRONGED STRATEGY TO DETER RUSSIA AND US

• CAN MATERIALLY INCREASE THE NUMBER OF TARGETS IT CAN ATTACK IN SHORT SPAN OF TIME

OWL NEWSMONDAY

CATEGORISATION OF CATEGORISATION OF THREATTHREAT

• INTERNAL

– MINORITIES

– LIBERALISATION

– CHANGING CULTURAL VALUES

CATEGORISATION CATEGORISATION OF THREATOF THREAT

• EXTERNAL

– USA - OPEN ADVERSARY

– JAPAN - POWERFUL RESURGENT ADVERSARY

– VIETNAM - UNPREDICTABLE ACE HITMAN

CATEGORISATION CATEGORISATION OF THREATOF THREAT

• EXTERNAL

– RUSSIA - POWERFUL THREATENING FORCE

– INDIA - NEO-NUCLEAR WITH ADVANCING MISSILE TECHNOLOGY

CHINESE GEOPOLITICAL FACETS

• EXTREME POSSESSIVE ATTITUDE TO

HER TERRITORIES

• SENSITIVENESS TO SECESSIONERY

TENDENCIES

SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT

• HAS LARGE ETHNIC POPULATION OF

– KAZAKHS

– KYRGHYS

– TAZIKS

– UIGHURS

SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT

• MOSTLY MUSLIMS AND SHARE CULTURAL AND RELIGIOUS LINKS WITH CARs

• RISE OF TALIBAN – ALARMED THESE STATES

SUPPORT TO SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT

• LESS LIKELY TO SUPPORT THESE MINORITIES

• SHANGHAI TREATY – STOP SPONSORING THESE GROUPS

TIBET

• CONQUERED BY MONGOLS IN 13TH CENTURY

• CAME UNDER “MANCHU” CONTROL IN 18TH CENTURY

CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF

CHINA

• EQUIPMENT IS 10-20 YEARS BEHIND THAT OF THE WEST

• MILITARY COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT OUTDATED

CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF

CHINA

• LACKS INTEGRATED AIRBORNE WARNING AND CONTROL SYSTEM (AWACS) FORCE

• UAVs ARE UNDER DEVELOPMENT

CRITICAL DEFICIENCIES IN MILITARY CAPABILITIES OF

CHINA

• SYSTEMS - INTEGRATION SKILLS ARE POOR

• INADEQUATE MAINTENANCE PROCEDURES AND NON-EXISTENT INTEGRATED LOGISTIC SUPPORT

PROGRESS MADE

• SOME AREAS OF COMMAND AND CONTROL

• CRUISE MISSILE TECHNOLOGY

CONTROL OF SLOC IN IOR REGION

• NAVAL CONFLICT IN BAY OF BENGAL LESS LIKELY

• SLOCs ARE IMPORTANT FOR US AND WESTERN POWERS IN THIS REGION

LAND THREAT

• INTEGRATED WAR IN THREE DIMENSIONS – AIR LAND BATTLE

• USE OF AIR, HELIBORNE, AIRBORNE AND SPECIAL FORCES IN A SIMULTANEOUS DEEP BATTLE

• TRAINING IN NBC SCENARIOS, BOTH IN OFFENCE AND DEFENCE

MARITIME THREAT

• REGARDS INDIA AS A POTENTIAL COMPETITOR FOR CONTROL IN SOUTH EAST ASIA AND AS THE PRINCIPLE ADVERSARY ACROSS MALACCA STRAITS

• HER INTERESTS IN THE INDIAN OCEAN ARE LONG-TERM AND STRATEGIC

POLICY IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

• TO DEVELOP RELATIONS WITH MYANMAR - LAND BASED ACCESS IN BAY OF BENGAL

• TO DEVELOP A BLUE-WATER CAPABILITY

• TO LIMIT INDIAN NAVAL FORCE PROJECTION TO THE WEST OF SINGAPORE

MILITARY COUNTER MEASURES

• INDIAN ARMED FORCES UNDER CONSTRAINTS OF BUDGETING

• UNLIKELY TO GROW IN SIZE

MILITARY COUNTER MEASURES

• CHINA RECOGNISED THE NEED TO REDUCE MANPOWER

• PLA HAS LESS ECONOMIC LIMITATIONS

• INDIAN ARMED FORCES RESTRUCTURE ITSELF TO SUIT POLITICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY

• RESTRUCTURING AND RESIZING THE ARMY

• DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE MULTIPLIERS

– INTEGRATED STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL C4I2 SYSTEMS

INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY

• DEVELOPMENT AND ADOPTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORCE MULTIPLIERS

– BETTER RADARS, SAMS, SSMS, UAVS,

– AIR-TO- AIR REFUELLING

– INTEGRATED LOGISTICS

INDIAN RESPONSE TO CHINESE THREAT IN 21ST CENTURY

• DEVELOPMENT OF CREDIBLE RAPID DEPLOYMENT AND AMPHIBIOUS CAPABILITY OF A DIVISION EACH

• DOCTRINAL SHIFT TO ‘INFO-AGE WARFARE’

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SINO RUSSIA

• SITUATION CHANGED WITH THE FORMATION OF THE CIS

• RUSSIA APPRECIATED THAT CHINA COULD BECOME AN IMPORTANT ALLY IN THIS NEW UNI-POLAR WORLD ORDER

• CHINA HAD MONEY POWER AND RUSSIA HAD THE TECHNOLOGY

HISTORICAL AGREEMENT

• ALL CONTROVERSIES AND BORDER DISPUTES WERE TO BE SETTLED BY PEACEFUL MEANS

• CEDING OF TERRITORIES TO EACH OTHER AND REDUCTION OF TROOPS AT THE BORDERS

HISTORICAL AGREEMENT

• MODEL TREATY FOR SETTLING

BORDER DISPUTES BETWEEN

VARIOUS NATIONS

SINO - JAPAN

• HISTORICALLY JAPAN HAS BEEN A THREAT TO CHINA

• 1978 TREATY OF PEACE AND FRIENDSHIP

• 1996 JAPANESE RIGHT WING GROUP LANDED ON SENKAKU ISLAND

STEPS TO NORMALIZE RELATIONS

• PRESIDENT HASHIMOTO MET PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN IN 1996

• IN 1997 JAPAN ANNOUNCED LIFTING OF THE FREEZE OF GRANTS IN AID

STEPS TO NORMALISE RELATIONS

• UNDERSTANDING REACHED TO EXPAND CO-OPERATION IN THE AREAS OF

– HIGH TECHNOLOGY

– INFORMATION

STEPS TO NORMALISE RELATIONS

• UNDERSTANDING REACHED TO EXPAND CO-OPERATION IN THE AREAS OF

– ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

– AGRICULTURE AND INFRASTRUCTURE

• PROMOTE SECURITY DIALOGUES

• 33 ITEM CO-OPERATION PLAN

REASONS FOR TENSIONS

• VISIT TO CORNELL UNIVERSITY IN 1995 BY TAIWAN PRESIDENT LEE-TENG-HUI

• SHIFT FROM THE AGREEMENT SIGNED BY PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON IN 1972

TAIWAN’S REQUIREMENTS

• VOTERS ON THE ISLAND FOR INDEPENDENCE

• INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION OF ITS SOVEREIGN STATUS

• BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM CHINA

RESULTS OF INTERNET SURVEY CARRIED OUT

FOR SOVEREIGNTY

– 70.17% SAID "YES"

– 20. 28 % SAID "NO”

CLAIM OF JURISDICTION OVER TAIWAN

• EVERY SOVEREIGN STATE HAS THE RIGHT TO PROTECT ITS UNITY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY

• TAIWAN HISTORICALLY BELONGS TO CHINA

CLAIM OF JURISDICTION OVER TAIWAN

• THE PROCLAMATION ISSUED AT THE CAIRO CONFERENCE IN 1943 STATES THAT TAIWAN BE RETURNED TO CHINA

• TAIWAN IS CONSIDERED A PART OF CHINA BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

WORLD POSITION ON TAIWAN

• NO PERMISSION REQUIRED FROM CHINA TO

– TRADE WITH TAIWAN

– TRANSIT PEOPLE, AIRCRAFT AND SHIPS TO AND FROM TAIWAN

WORLD POSITION ON TAIWAN

• CHINA’S CLAIM OVER TAIWAN IS FACTUALLY WEAK

• NO IMMEDIATE ANSWER

SINO-US RELATIONS

• DECISION OF THE US TO SUPPORT

CHIANG-KAI SHEK IN HIS STRUGGLE

AGAINST MAO

• KOREAN CONFLICT OF 1950

SINO-US RELATIONS

• EISENHOWER'S THREAT TO USE

NUCLEAR WEAPON

• US SUPPLY OF ARMS AND

EQUIPMENT TO TAIWAN

RELATIONS NOW

• RICHARD NIXON CONSIDERABLY

IMPROVED THEIR RELATIONS

• THE MILITARY TIES WERE

STRENGTHENED IN THE LATE 70s

RELATIONS NOW

• CHINA CONSIDERS USA MORE AS A

FRIEND THAN AN ALLY

• USA ON THE OTHER HAND, SEES

CHINA AS AN EMERGING MARKET

FOR HER GOODS

AMERICAN POLICY

• BASED ON 1979 TAIWAN RELATIONS ACT

• BEIJING OPPOSED INTERFERENCE IN DOMESTIC POLITICS

• LIKELY DANGER TO SINO-US RELATIONS

CHINA -EU

• CHINA IS THE THIRD LARGEST NON-EUROPEAN TRADING PARTNER FOR THE EU

• THE EU BACKS CHINA'S TRANSITION TOWARDS AN OPEN SOCIETY BASED UPON THE RULE OF LAW

AREAS OF MUTUAL CO-OPERATION

• REGIONAL CO-OPERATION

• ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

• ARMS CONTROL AND NON-PROLIFERATION

• REDUCTION IN CROSS BORDER CRIMES

FOREIGN POLICY

• ATTITUDE WAS DETERMINED BY THREE MAJOR FACTORS

– SRI LANKA'S CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH UNITED KINGDOM

– DOMESTIC POLITICS

– SOVIET UNION’S VETO OF SRI LANKA'S ADMISSION TO THE UNITED NATIONS

SRI LANKA’S VIEW

• INTENSE DISLIKE FOR COMMUNISM

• A NEW POWER PATTERN WITH INDIA AS THE DOMINANT POWER IN THE SUBCONTINENT

• WELCOMES COUNTER POISE TO INDIA'S POWER AND INFLUENCE

CHINA'S POLICY • STAGES OF CHINA’S POLICY

– MYANMAR PRO-WEST

– ACCUSED U Nu AS STOOGE OF US

– THE WHITE FLAG COMMUNIST MOVEMENT

– CHINA'S MOVE TO RESTORE STATUS QUO

MYANMAR’S RESPONSE• WITHDREW FROM THE NON-

ALIGNMENT MOVEMENT

• RECEPTIVE TO CHINA’S NEEDS TO WARD OFF THREATS OF REBELS

• CHINESE HAVE OBTAINED BASE FACILITIES FROM MYANMAR AT HANGYI ISLANDS AND COCO ISLAND

BACKGROUND

• CHINA NEVER SUPPORTED THE BANGLA MOVEMENT FOR INDEPENDENCE

• RECOGNISED BANGLADESH AS LATE AS 1975

PRESENT SITUATION

• CHINA IS MAJOR SUPPLIER OF ARMS

• ACTIVE CO-OPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND BANGLADESH

CHINA – NEPAL RELATIONS

• HISTORICAL LINKS

• GEO-CONTIGUOUS STATES

• LOFTY HIMALAYAS AS INSULATION

CHINA – NEPAL RELATIONS

• LOCATION STRATEGIC

• NEPAL – A BUFFER STATE

CHINA – PAKISTAN RELATIONS

• FIRST MUSLIM COUNTRY TO RECOGNISE PRC

• PAKISTAN GAVE AWAY 2050 SQ KM OF POK

• PIA FIRST AIRLINE OPERATING TO BEIJING

CHINESE ROLE IN THE 1965 INDO-PAK WAR

• CHINA HELD INDIA SOLELY RESPONSIBLE FOR CONFLICT

• SUPPORTED KASHMIRI’S RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION

CHINESE ROLE IN THE 1965 INDO-PAK WAR

• ACCUSED UN OF ACTING TO PAKISTAN'S DETRIMENT

• REACTED VIOLENTLY IN SIKKIM

CHINA'S POLICY ON PAKISTAN

• AGGRESSIVE EXPANSION / DIPLOMATIC MANOEUVRING AIMED TO: -

– DOMINATE SOUTH ASIA

– INTEGRATE THE SOUTH ASIAN ECONOMY WITH HER OWN

– SUPPLICATE US INFLUENCE IN ASIA

BENEFITS TO PAKISTAN

• DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT

• MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN LARGE AMOUNTS

BENEFITS TO PAKISTAN

• ASSISTANCE IN ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND DEFENCE PRODUCTION

• TRANSFER OF INTERMEDIATE BALLISTIC MISSILES LIKE THE M-11 SRBMS ETC

CHINA - INDIA• INDIA AND CHINA EMERGED AS

POLITICAL ENTITIES AT THE SAME TIME

• INDIA - PEACEFUL DEMOCRATIC NON - ALIGNED COUNTRY

• CHINA - MODERN COMMUNIST NATION

RELATIONS

• NEVER FOLLOWED ANY UNIFORM PATTERN

• SINO-INDIAN RELATIONS BEST UNDERSTOOD BY DIVIDING IT INTO DIFFERENT PERIODS

PERIOD FROM 1947-50

• PT JAWAHARLAL NEHRU DESCRIBED CHINA AS "A MIGHTY COUNTRY WITH A MIGHTY PAST"

• INDIA RECOGNISED THE PRC IN DEC 1949

PERIOD FROM 1950-54

• CHANGES IN RELATIONS FROM IDEOLOGICAL DISTANCE TO STATE OF FRIENDSHIP DESPITE

– KOREAN WAR

– TAKE OVER OF TIBET BY THE PLA

PERIOD OF HINDI-CHINI-BHAI-BHAI

• SOCIO-CULTURAL EXCHANGES

• CHINESE INCURSIONS IN NORTHERN FRONTIERS

• 1956 – 57 ROAD ACROSS AKSAI - CHIN

PERIOD FROM 1959 - 62

• IN JAN 1959 CHOU EN LAI CHALLENGED ESTABLISHED BOUNDARY BETWEEN INDIA AND CHINA

• IN SEP 1959 CLAIMED 50,000 SQ MILES OF INDIAN TERRITORY

PERIOD FROM 1959 - 62

• IN 1962 CHINA MOUNTED A FULL-FLEDGED ATTACK ON INDIA

• CHINA MOVED CLOSER TO PAKISTAN & SUPPORTED HER IN 1965, 71 WARS WITH INDIA

PERIOD SINCE 1976

• IN 1976 DIPLOMATIC TIES RESUMED

• MODEST LINKS IN TRADE, BANKING AND SHIPPING RE-ESTABLISHED

• IN 1988 JOINT WORKING GROUP SET UP TO SOLVE THE BORDER DISPUTES

HURDLES IN RELATIONS

• CHINA DOES NOT RECOGNISE MAC MAHON LINE

• SIKKIM AND ARUNACHAL ARE NOT RECOGNISED BY CHINA AS PARTS OF INDIA

• AKSAI CHIN STANDS IN THE WAY

HURDLES IN RELATIONS

• OVERT AND COVERT SUPPORT BY CHINA TO PAKISTAN

• CHINA SEES INDIA AS A MAJOR RIVAL IN SE ASIA

HURDLES IN RELATIONS

• JOINED HANDS WITH PAKISTAN TO INTERNATIONALISE THE KASHMIR ISSUE

• CHINA'S MILITARY BASES IN MYANMAR AND TIBET

• INDIA'S NUCLEAR TESTS NOT LIKED BY CHINA

HURDLES IN RELATIONS

• INDIA MUST SIGN THE CTBT AND THE NPT UNCONDITIONALLY

• INDIA'S SUPPORT TO THE DALAI LAMA

A first- rate theory predicts; a second- rate theory forbids; and a third- rate theory explains after the event.

Alexander Isaakovich Kitaigordskii

 

PRO DEMOCRACY

ELECTIONS AT VILLAGE AND LOCAL LEVELS

  KEEN INTEREST IN INDIAN DEMOCRACY

DEMOCRACY AN ACCEPTABLE FORM OF GOVERNMENT

TINNANMEN SQUARE INCIDENT AND COLLAPSE OF ERSTWHILE USSR

ANTI DEMOCRACY

   Communism more suited to manage large countries like China

   

Common man not interested in democracy

POLITICAL SCENARIO

• EMERGING MULTI-POLAR WORLD

• INDIA SHOULD MAINTAIN EQUI-DISTANCE

• INDO-RUSSIAN-CHINA AXIS

POLITICAL SCENARIO

• INDIA IS IN THE PERIPHERAL VISION OF CHINA

• SINO-INDIAN RELATIONSHIP--THE ‘POWER FOR ASIANS’ THEORY

• LIKELY ADMISSION IN G-8 AND THE WTO

FUTURE

• DREAM OF GREATER CHINA

• GREAT MILITARY POWER

• BEFRIEND PAKISTAN

• CONFRONTATION WITH ASEAN

The 17th century has been described as the age of reason; the 18th as of enlightenment; 19th as of progress and the 20th as one of anxiety and extremes My hunch is that 21st century would be a century of uncertainty

KR NARAYANAN