Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013.

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Transcript of Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year Steven Kyle Cornell University December 10, 2013.

Outlook for the US Economy in the Coming Year

Steven KyleCornell University

December 10, 2013

Real GDP Growth Since 2000

Unemployment Since 2000

Inflation Since 2000

Fed Funds Rate

Yield on 10 Year Treasury

Total Federal Expenditures as a Percent of GDP

State and Local Spending as a Percent of GDP

Employment to Population Ratio

Industrial Production

Industrial Capacity Utilization

Retail Sales

Household Debt Service as Percent of Income

Aggressive Monetary Policy and Low Inflation

The Stimulus is Just About Gone

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?&chart_type=line&graph_id=&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=#b3cde7&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=GDPC1&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=2000-01-01&coed=2013-07-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=2&vintage_date=2013-12-05&revision_date=2013-12-05&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Quarterly&fam=avg&fgst=pc1%23page=1

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?&chart_type=line&graph_id=&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=#b3cde7&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=GDPC1&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=2000-01-01&coed=2013-07-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=2&vintage_date=2013-12-05&revision_date=2013-12-05&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Quarterly&fam=avg&fgst=pc1%23page=1

CBO Estimate of Debt/GDP

A New Stock Bubble ??

State Government Employment

Local Government Employment

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?&chart_type=line&graph_id=&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=#b3cde7&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=CES9093000001&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=1970-01-01&coed=2013-11-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=3&vintage_date=2013-12-06&revision_date=2013-12-06&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin%23page=1

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.pdf?&chart_type=line&graph_id=&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=#b3cde7&graph_bgcolor=%23ffffff&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=CES9093000001&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Custom&cosd=1970-01-01&coed=2013-11-01&line_color=%230000ff&link_values=&mark_type=NONE&mw=4&line_style=Solid&lw=3&vintage_date=2013-12-06&revision_date=2013-12-06&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Monthly&fam=avg&fgst=lin%23page=1

Job Openings in Education & Health – Clearly Rebounding

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