11. DECEMBER 2019 - PARIS

Our Food in the Anthropocene

The Lancet, October 2017

Commissioners

Johan RockstromWalter WillettTim LangDavid TilmanFrancesco BrancaJessica FanzoLindiwe SibandaRina AugustinaTara GarnettShenggen FanCorinna HawkesRami ZuraykAnna LarteyChris MurrayAshkan AfshinSonja VermeulenSrinath ReddySania NishtarAnn ThruppJuan DommarcoSunita Narain

Our food in the Anthropocene

Food has become the leading cause of human mortality

Foley et al. 2011

And food fails the environment

Science based targets create a shared ambition

Diet drives the global burden of disease

2500 calories diet constructed

based on the GBD risk

analysis.

Protective foods are those

that lower risk including

polyunsaturated fatty acids

(PUFA).

Harmful are foods that above

a minimum allowed cause

harm.

Total calories: 2500 Total calories: 2881

Global DietMinimum Risk Diet

Food availability for rich and poor nations

High-incomeMiddle-income Low-incomeDiet drives the global burden of disease

Food availability for rich and poor nations

High-income Middle-income Low-income

3744 Kcals

Potential savings of the low risk diet.

Disease

Actual Expenditure(2010 $US

million)

Predictedexpenditure(2010 $US

million)

Savings(2010 $US

million)

Percent saved

Cardiovascular and circulatory diseases

$134,712 $58,274 $76,438 -57%

Diabetes $116,327 $76,376 $39,952 -34%

Cancer $114,253 $101,743 $12,510 -11%

Musculoskeletal disorders $116,528 $115,916 $612 -1%

Following the GBD recommended diet would have reduced US health expenditure in 2006-2010 by $130 billion per year – a 6% reduction.

Adapted from Murray (EAT 2014)

Low Risk Diet

Food fails health

Steffen et al., 2016

Rockstrom et al., 2009

Today’s food systems drive environmental harm

The Sixth Extinction:An Unnatural History

Elizabeth Kolbert

“We are deciding, without quite meaning to, which evolutionary pathways will remain open and which will forever be closed. No other creature has ever managed this, and it will, unfortunately, be our most enduring legacy.”

Book Review by Al Gore, New York Times, Feb. 2014

Low Risk Land Use

Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure

20%

30%18%

22%

10%

Low Risk Land Use Current Estimates

Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure

20%

30%18%

22%

10% 8%15%

26%

18%

23%

Targets are distinct by Biomes

17%

70%

1%12%

Tundra Dry TropicalForest (24%)

Tropical GrasslandsMoist Tropical Forests

Protected Intact Cropland Pasture Urban/Infrastructure

21%

27% 30%

22%

16%

43%24%

17%

Geographically specific water boundary

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Boundaries

Business as Usual

Planetary Boundary

Business as usual will not get us there

2° Climate

0 Biodiversity loss

<2600 km3 yr-1

Fresh Water Use

±2500 Kcal per capita

12% PUFA

<2% Harmful

## Tg P yr-1

## Tg N yr-1

>50 protectiveingredients

Land50-75%

Science based targets create a shared ambition

How can food get us to low risk diets and land?

Low Risk Diet

0%

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edu

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0%

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0% food comp. feed reduce 100% food comp. feed reduce

Science

Business Policy

Science based targets create a shared ambition