Post on 08-May-2015
description
Opportunities in China’s Startup Ecosystem
ZhenFund 2013
www.ZhenFund.com
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Disclaimer
The material in this presenta/on has been prepared by ZhenFund. This informa/on is given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. Informa/on in this presenta/on, including forecast financial informa/on, should not be considered as advice or a recommenda/on to investors or entrepreneurs. This presenta/on may contain forward looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expecta/ons. Readers are cau/oned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. ZhenFund does not undertake any obliga/on related to ac/ons resul/ng from this presenta/on.
• Market opportunity, a macro perspective • Startup ecosystem challenges and opportunities
– New sources of capital (angels, cross-border, government) – Venture capital/private equity – Public markets and exit opportunities – BAT + Q: the internet giants – Customer acquisition challenges – Copycats and intellectual property – Developer services and infrastructure – Remaining challenges
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Content
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China by the numbers
1.35 billion people 70% urban by 2025
7.5% GDP growth over next 10 years, driven by domestic consumption
2nd largest consumer market after the US
5 Source: Strangeloop; McKinsey, www.internetworldstats.com/
China 2015 - - - - 780 MILLION INTERNET USERS
China 2012 - - - - 564 MILLION INTERNET USERS
(42% penetration rate)
United States 2012 ----245 million internet users
India 2012 ---137 million internet users
~75% internet users access through mobile
China has the most internet users globally
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$445bn
$270bn
Online retail volume (2015E)
Shipping costs comparatively low
• 44% of China’s population will shop online in 2015, representing 375mm customers
• E-commerce projected to reach 16% of retail sales by 2020
Chin
a
US
Singles day in 2012 for Taobao and Tmall alone generated more than $3bn in sales, triple US Black Friday 2011 sales
$3bn
Source: Alizila.com “China’s Internet is Giant Shopping Mall” Infograph
China’s e-commerce volume to surpass US in 2013 US
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$10bn +
Mobile gaming projected to grow 50% YoY through 2015 to hit ~$3.5bn USD in revenue and
455mm players
Source: Economist “Ours, all ours” Apirl 6th 2013, Data from Morgan Stanley 2012 China Gaming Industry Report, Analysys International
China is the world’s largest online gaming market
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Travel Advertising Film
Luxury Grocery Cosmetics
Source: Worldwatch, Guardian.co.uk, Wikipedia CNBC, China.org.cn
…and will soon be the #1-2 market globally for:
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China produces 70% of the world’s smartphones…
…and is also the #1 market for smartphones, • 29% of global shipments in 2013 (E)
• 354mm subscriber base (compared to 219mm in the US) • 92% of Chinese 18-30 yo own smartphones
Source: Canalys.com Smart phone Market Shipment Forecast 2013 BRIC Countries, “China’s Communication Industry” by tech.163.com, “At D11, It’s Clear, China beats U.S. in mobile and internet” Forbes.com 5/30/2013, Telefonica SA and Financial Times
Mobile & smartphone market opportunity
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China’s digital divide: mobile internet
Source: Analysys International, Morgan Stanley AlphaWise, Flurry Analytics, insidemobileapps.com, computerworld.com, Apple, Stenvall Skoeld & Company analysis , Kai Lukoff,
• Android has 90.1% market share, but Google Play is virtually absent
• Many smartphone users do not download apps themselves, concerned about data plan use for big downloads,tend to buy phones with apps pre-installed by Shuaji 刷机 distribution companies
• 40% of iOS install base in China, but still majority Android
• Savvy customers download apps directly from Apple or through marketplace platforms like 91助手
• iOS developers can gain brand awareness by engaging Shuabang 刷榜 companies to help them climb app store rankings
Most developers are focusing energy on these
users…
…but many future opportunities are here!
Distribution still complicated
• Market opportunity, a macro perspective • Startup ecosystem challenges and opportunities
– New sources of capital (angels, cross-border, government) – Venture capital/private equity – Public markets and exit opportunities – BAT + Q: the internet giants – Customer acquisition challenges – Copycats and intellectual property – Developer services and infrastructure – Remaining challenges
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Content
50% 50%
Insights from 309 Chinese angels who have done at least two deals and committed > 1mm RMB in startup funding, representing 747 deals:
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China’s angels by the numbers in 2012
Source: Cyzone.com 《中国天使投资报告》创业邦研究中心2012.12出品
Background
72% of angels
were previously
founders
Mostly
men
88% are
male
Sectors
Mobile internet, e-
commerce, and
consumer services are
the top three areas for
investment
Boards
76% take
board
seats
Round Size
60% of their portfolio
startups raised <
3mm RMB (~$500k)
in their angel round
We see this investment strategy declining as Chinese angels become more savvy
Geography
Beijing dominates
angel deals in China,
representing 22% of
all deal value and 30%
of overall deal volume
Ownership
For 20% of deals,
angels took more than
50% of the company
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China’s angels are on the rise
Source: www.stepvc.com 创业接力天使和清科研究中心 《2012年中国天使投资与天使孵化研究报告,清科研究中心2012.09,www.zdbchina.com, Cyzone.com 《中国天使投资报告》创业邦研究中心2012.12出品
Angels by type
Individual
Angel Fund
Angel + Incubator
Angel Teams
60% of angels will exit by selling shares to VC’s
50% of angels
reporting returns of 30%+
18% report returns
of 200%+ 190 (70%)
15 (6%)
61 (22%)
6 (2%)
Chinese investors are going global and many leading Silicon Valley investment brands have a presence in China, increasing potential for cross-border
collaboration and deals
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Cross-border deals
Multiple Chinese VC funds and incubators have a presence in SV
Key leading VC’s and US angels already have funds or reps in China
• Provide cash, tax, and office incentives for startups or talented post-graduates to register for business within their province, city, or city district
• Many programs operated in conjunction with Torch tech parks and incubators
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Government funding
• The Torch Program: – Reportedly companies housed in 89 national
high tech industrial zones accounted for 7.1% national GDP in 2010
– 500+ tech SME incubators nationwide, claims to have incubated Lenovo, Huawei, Suntech and graduated 16k companies
– State Council established Innofund reports investments of ~9bn RMB in 15,000+ projects since 1999, with 100 domestic IPO’s from portfolio
National government
Local and national government have two key KPI’s: Increase GDP & Corporate Taxes
to that end, A LOT of money is being made available to technology startups
Source: www.ctp.gov.cn
Provincial, city, district level governments
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Government funding
Caveats
• High turnover rate. Discontinuity of services and support when officials rotate to other posts or are promoted
• Focus on hardware rather than software. Tangible KPI’s such as brick and mortar or registered capital are primary focus
• Lack of experienced advisors. Officials in charge of programs may have no experience running businesses
• Bureaucratic. Application and reporting requirements burdensome to startups
Major VC funding cool down in 2012
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992 1,269 1,173 1,777 3,247
4,210 2,701
5,387
13,003
7,320
177 253 228
324
440
607
477
817
1505
1071
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Inv ($USD mm)
# deals
Investments in China’s VC Market from 2003 – 2012, estimated 40-50% decline in 2012
Source:, Zero2ipo’s China VC/PE Market Review 2012, hQp://research.pedaily.cn/dowloadfiles/20133613413765.pdf
Factors affecting capital deployment
18 Source: Wall Street Journal “Fears of an IPO Flood in China” April 16, 2013
• Macroeconomic and political climate (major CCP leadership change in 2012)
• Poor performance of some Chinese internet stocks on US markets, increased investor scrutiny
• Exit bottleneck in domestic public markets
• Smarter money less willing to burn cash on market land grabs (i.e. group buy and e-commerce sites)
Reasons for optimism in 2013
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• One of two Chinese internet IPO’s in the US in 2012, YY, had strong performance on the NASDAQ and paved the way for a more receptive capital market in 2013
• LightintheBox (ZhenFund portfolio company) June 2013 NYSE IPO
• Alibaba Group mega-IPO in the works • 新三板 New Third Board to expand the
over the counter (OTC)market for SME shares domestically, four pilot zones and 140 listings to date, however, listing costs are high for startups (~1mm RMB) and liquidity is low
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488 416
351
521 488 435
92
7
13
68
51
49
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IPO M&A
USA: IPO vs. M&A, 2007 -‐ 2012
Source: Thompson Reuters & National Venture Capital Association, Zero2ipo’s China VC/PE Review 2012
144, 59%
99, 41%
China: IPO vs. M&A, 2012
IPO M&A, MBO, Liquidation, etc
Exit opportunities: Chinese VC backed companies still skewed towards IPO
But M&A market is improving
Internet giants moving on larger scale acquisitions, but primarily only in larger category leaders
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Q2 2011 Baidu invests $306mm in
Qunar
Q2 2013 Baidu acquires PPS for
$370mm
Q3 2012 Suning acquires Redbaby for
$66mm
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BAT + Q: China’s internet giants
SEARCH E-COMMERCE/PAYMENTS
SOCIAL/ GAMING
TOOLS
NASDAQ (BIDU) 2012 revenue = $3.58bn, primarily advertising 70% search market share Struggling to transition to mobile search, profit margins falling
HKSE 1688 ~$175bn transaction volume in 2012 (Tmall B2B and Taobao C2C) ~$40bn 2012 revenue, primarily from advertising 5% of all Chinese retail, 80% market share e-commerce in China 47% Alipay market share for online payments in China, 700mm registered users Now owns 18% of Sina Weibo microblog (48mm DAU)
HKSE 0700 2012 revenue = $6.98bn, primarily from value added services/gaming, (also non-trivial e-commerce revenue) ~800mm QQ social network users and 400mm WeChat mobile social network users (200mm MAU) 21% online payments market (Tenpay)
NYSE: QiHU 2012 revenue = $239mm, primarily advertising and online games Major portal destination Baidu’s emerging rival in search (15% market share)
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Online customer acquisition in China
<- Major social platforms are open, reducing customer acquisition cost
Social graph information not 100% open to developers ->
<- SEO is transparent and mature
SEO algorithms change frequently->
<- Email marketing is an established customer acquisition channel
Email marketing historically less effective, difficult to get
on ISP white list for email providers->
Chinese startups face unique challenges acquiring customers online:
<- Mobile app distribution channels fairly concentrated (Apple and Google Play)
Shuabang services distort Apple store rankings, Google Play
blocked, Android distribution fragmented ->
China’s copycat phenomenon, key factors
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1 Growing available capital –investors and internet giants willing to fund copycats
2 Low hanging fruit – cheap and easy to copy pure internet/mobile products, wide open spaces in the market lead to land grabs fueled by investor money ex: Groupon, Tumblr, Pinterest, and Path etc clones
3 Risk aversion - Domestic VC’s and foreign
capital markets more receptive to Chinese start ups with direct corollary in the US. Copying a model perceived as less risky.
4 Foreign companies often delay too long before tackling the Chinese market
Copying products designed to solve US customer needs is no guarantee of mainstream success in China, many copycats will fail, no breakout success stories for some of the most high profile consumer internet brands*
Copycats don’t always work…
Successful professionals and business leaders less open to
sharing contacts online
Leisure micro-blogging and design-focused UGC not yet mainstream activity for Chinese
netizens
*For Pinterest genre, excludes companies like Mogujie and Meilishuo, originally e-commerce sites with Pinterest UI integrated later
Wow.taobao.com www.duitang.com
Huaban.com Diandian.com www.woxihuan.com
12
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…but foreign entrants shouldn’t discount them! Launched in June 2011 Netease’s 有道云笔记 (Youdao Yunbiji) at 8mm users
reportedly larger than Evernote’s 4mm Chinese user base
Youdao even mimics Evernote’s marketing tactics, using similar wording on their Weibo account. Copycats are still an issue!
Copycat mitigation strategies
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• Focus on your strengths – The exterior of pure web and mobile products can be easily copied, but core
competencies (customer service, offline resources, advanced IP/tech) are the key to success, expect copycats but don’t be discouraged
• Avoid internet giant territory – Don’t go after categories and products that can be easily copied by BAT + Q, they
have thousands of engineers and millions in cash at their disposal, focus on niche/vertical markets or businesses with strategic offline resources
• Pick your battles – Focus on serving the customers who do enjoy using your product or service, rather
than conquering the “mass” market • Make it a local effort
– Get a Chinese investor on board, have a local connection that can pull strings for you when issues arise
– Empower local staff • Shorten the chain of command for decision making • Give local GM’s a stake in the business
On dealing with copycats
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”Our business is a slow business, so it has to take a lot of time by gaining users’ trust and having them be comfortable with using our product. It’s more of a trust business”
- Evernote China’s GM Amy Gu on rivals in China
“At the end of the day, it’s still too attractive a market to pass up on.” – Flipboard Product Director for Greater China Alvin Tse
“We took something from the music industry, which was to stop treating the customers as users, and start treating them as fans… piracy may not be a bad thing. It can get us more business at the end of the day.”
– Mikael Hed, Rovio CEO, on piracy in China
“Be patient. I think that approaching the market too aggressively, you can make some mistakes. I think it's best just to be patient and focus on delivering a high-quality experience to Chinese players, and when there are challenges or roadblocks then you just have to take them one at a time and deal with them.”
– Mike Morhaime, President and Co-founder Blizzard Entertainment
IP protection is improving
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“This is a long-term effort … we want the indigenous brands to work together to protect IPR, because if you do not participate today, tomorrow you are the victims.” -‐ Jack Ma
• 4/2013 Baidu wins suit against Qihoo for illegally accessing and indexing Baidu’s Baike content, the damages were small (450k RMB), but positive sign for IP protection in China
Source: TechinAsia http://www.techinasia.com/china-search-qihoo-360-baidu-market-share/
Startup services: US versus China
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: Extensive services make startups more efficient and cheaper to operate
Large companies gaining traction for IaaS services, but many corollaries for US startup
services do not yet exist, are fragmented, or still face UI issues
CRM and advertising
Data hosting and management
Payments and analytics
Developer communities and game services
?
?
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Internet Speed
China’s top startup cities 2X+ slower than US average
Average US internet speed ~ 7.4mb/s
Source: ChinaCache http://mashable.com/2012/09/28/china-broadband-speed/
Ongoing Challenges: Lack of Trust
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“The culture of Silicon Valley encourages people with diverse skills and experiences to meet and trust each other and take a chance together.”
-‐ Victor Hwang
• General trust level in society dropped from 62.9/100 in 2011 to 59.7 in 2012
• Only 30% of people trust strangers met on the street
• 64% trust public media • 57.5% trust NGO’s • 52% trust businesses
CHEATING IS PERCEIVED AS THE NORM
Trust in Chinese society hit an all-‐Jme low in 2012.
-‐ The Blue Book of Social Mentality
VS
Source: http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2013/02/trust-among-chinese-drops-to-record-low/
APPENDIX
Additional data points
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• One of China’s leading angel funds • ZhenFund believes in one principle above all
others: Integrity, • Money with values 创业及自由 • Founded by Xu Xiaoping in 2006, current
fund a collaboration with Sequoia Capital China
• Investment size: Up to $500k USD • 100+ portfolio companies in China • www.zhenfund.com for more • Contact: zhenfund@zhenfund.com
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Who are we? ZhenFund 真格基金
China’s angel funds
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Est. 2006, $30mm USD Invest in people,
high deal volume, cross-border deals
Est. 2008, Incubate + ideate, hands on,
consumer internet
Est. 2009, Incubate + Seed + VC, large
professional staff, hands on, Beijing and Shanghai locations
Est. 2010, general focus on early stage TMT investments
Legend Star, Est. 2008, 400mm RMB fund, 21
person team, incubate with focus on technology
Global venture capital firm doubles as one of the
most active institutional angels in China
Established angel funds in China offer a variety of investment styles and funding amounts for local startups
China’s Angels
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Edward Tian Charles Xue Li Kaifu Xu Xiaoping Lei Jun
• Many prominent angels are members of China’s “Angel Committee” 天使会, but co-investment still rare, the Silicon Valley party round hasn’t yet made it to China
• China’s top angels primarily investing through fund entities
Cloud Valley Innovation Works ZhenFund Shunwei Capital
China’s Angels (cont’d)
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Cai WenSheng He Boquan Bao Fan Zeng Liqing
China’s Incubators
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Beijing
Shanghai
Hangzhou
Shenzhen
Dalian
Taipei
Many new privately funded incubators emerging
• Q3 2004 Baidu acquires hao123 (50mm RMB) • Q3 2010 Shanda acquires Ku6 (share swap and $37.2mm), Eyedentity
($95MM), Mochi Media ($80mm) • Q3 2010 Tencent acquires Comsenz (valued at >$10mm) • Q1 2011 Sina acquires 19% share Mecox Lane ($66mm) • Q1 2011 Baidu invests in Anjuke (led $50mm round) • Q2 2011 Tencent's strategic 16% stake in eLong ($84.4mm) • Q2 2011 Baidu invests majority strategic stake in Baidu ($306mm) • Q4 2011 Tencent strategic 4.6% stake in Huayi Brothers (450mm RMB) • Q3 2011 Sina acquires 9% stake in Tudou ($66.4mm) • Q3 2011 Baidu strategic 40% stake in Fanshu.com (47.6mm RMB ) • Q4 2011 Renren acquires 56.com ($80mm)
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M&A/Strategic Investments (through 2011)
• Q2 2012 Ctrip acquires ⻜飞常准 (20mm RMB) • Q3 2012 Tencent investment in Caixin (undisclosed) • Q3 2012 Renren invests in Social Finance ($46mm) • Q3 2012 Tudou-Youku merger ($1bn) • Q3 2012 苏宁易购 Suning acquires Redbaby 红孩子 ($66mm) • Q1 2013 Baidu announces plan to make strategic investment in Kingsoft • Q2 2013 Baidu to acquire PPS for ($370mm) • Q2 2013 Alibaba takes 18% stake in Sina Weibo ($586mm)
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M&A/Strategic Investments (2012-2013)
E-commerce • Alibaba (Aliexpress) • 360buy (JD Express) • LightintheBox
Mobile • Tencent (WeChat) • Dolphin Browser • UCWeb • Kingsoft
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Chinese companies going global
Made in China for global export, B2C
Tencent hoping WeChat will fuel global growth, US base in Palo Alto
Based in Wuhan with 50mm global user base
Offering products made in China for global customers
25% of 400mm users outside China
JV in Japan and eyeing US markets
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Google Play Vacuum
• Android represents 90.1% of the OS market in China, but Google Play is virtually absent
• Multiple 3rd party android marketplaces vying for user attention
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China’s Internet Giants want to do it all Source: CIC
Source: CIC