OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITYAneel Lakhani

NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE THIS TALK

MarketingAnalystProduct

Infra ArchNet Eng

Sys AdminNOC Op

Tech Support

HE ISUSAF Colonel & Military Strategist

John Richard Boyd

OODAOBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE

ACT

ECOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY

AFFORDANCES

Empirical PsychologistJames J. Gibson

A KNOB AFFORDS TWISTING, AND PERHAPS PUSHING, WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING.

AN AFFORDANCE [IS] THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION, AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.

COGNITION GRASPS AFFORDANCES

ACTION UNLOCKS AFFORDANCES

OODA == COGNITION-ACTION

OODA : COGNITION-ACTION ::

__ : AFFORDANCE

HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?

HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?

WE BUILD MODELS

WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS

WE [TEND TO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS

WE ORIENT WITH AND TO MODELS

WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS

WE MODEL ALL THE THINGS

FASTER!!![CARGO CULT VERSION]

OPERATE INSIDE THE [ADVERSARY’S]

TIME SCALE

1 Adversary 1: OODA

2 Adversary 1: OODA

3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA

4 Adversary 1: OODA^X

Adversary 2: OOD_

Adversary 2: OO__

Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_

Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O

MOVING FORWARD IN TIME

PARTS OF THE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL

OBSERVE & ACT VS

ORIENT & DECIDE

FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE

Law & Finance ProfessorFrank Portnoy

DELAYING DECIDE-ACT

OFTEN MEANS COMING OUT

AHEAD

MAPPING

WONDER, PEACE, WAR BUSINESS CYCLES

Researcher of Strategy & MapmakerSimon Wardley

MULTIPLE PRACTICES,

CULTURES, AND STAGES OF

EVOLUTION COEXIST

CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODEL TO BE “INVALID” IS THE PRIMARY MEANS OF

“WINNING”

TAKING OUR MODELS TOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITING TO BE EXPLOITED (OR

BLOWN UP)

BLACK SWANS

ANTIFRAGILITYProfessor of Risk Engineering

N. N. Taleb

BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR

MODELS

[IMMOVABLE] MODELS CREATE

FRAGILITY

SCALES OF ABSTRACTION

PROMISE THEORYArchitect of CFEngine

Mark Burgess

EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE

SO WHAT?

THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE

OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTEDSCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY

ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY

ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS]

SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY

TIME CAN BE REALLOCATED TO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS

SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY

CAUTION: ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]

CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES

CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT

Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change

CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS

KNOW THE CONTEXT

SEEK MODEL INVALIDATION

ORIENTATION AND DECISIONThrough streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building

meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.

READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)

READINGblog.gardeviance.org - kitchensoap.com

THANKS

Aneel

@aneel - aneel@signalfx.com

ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS

https://signalfx.com

IMAGE CREDITS• J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library

• Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind

• N.N. Taleb: NY Times

• Mark Burgess: markburgess.org

• Book cover images from Amazon

• Coffee: me

• Me: not me