Post on 22-Dec-2015
2
Declining National Unemployment Rate
Canada and OntarioUnemployment Rates
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
%
Canada Ontario
3
Ontario Manufacturing Employment Continued to Decline in 2007
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
000s
4
But Ontario remains the centre of Canadian Manufacturing
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Trade
Manufacturing
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing
Educational Services
Construction
Accommodation and food services
Public administration
Information, culture and recreation
Transportation and Warehousing
Business, Building and Other Support Services
Other services
Agriculture
Utilities
Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas
Canada
Ontario
5
Declining Transportation Equipment Mfg Employment
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000s
2004 2005 2006 2007
6
Significant challenges in forestry and pulp and paper
Forestry Employment in Ontario (000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Forestry and Logging Wood ProductPaper Manufacturing NO Paper Manufacturing
7
Drivers
Increased globalization of trade and commerce
Energy prices
US economic performance
Demographic changes
Changing expectations
Emerging nations
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The Service sectors
Services sector strength continues to compensate for manufacturing weakness
Retail and WholesaleTrade has steadily increased in size to be the largest source of employment in the province with over a million workers
Health care and social assistance has had continuing growth with nearly 33,000 more workers than last year
10
Boom Bust and Echo (and the next bust which is just entering elementary school)
Bust went through high school in the 1980s and enrolment rates went up
Echo went through in the 1990s
BUT even smaller cohorts entering the elementary system now
Boom 5 to 10 years away from retirement (depending on retirement practices and pension factors)
11
More Demographics
Canadian birth rate in decline = 1.4 (U.S. = 2.0)
Immigration = 70% of Canada’s workforce growth 1991 –2001
Immigration =100% of workforce growth by 2011
Unemployment relatively low by historical standards
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Immigrants are an Important Source of Labour Supply
Between 2001 and 2006, immigrants increased by just over 12 percent, almost three times the growth rate of the Canadian-born population in Ontario
The numbers and share of the population who came from offshore varies widely among subprovincial areas with more than than one-third of the immigrant population of Ontario living in Toronto
13
Immigration trends
Immigration to Ontario peaked in 2001 at 148, 425 and had settled back to 125, 914 in 2006
Immigrants born in Asia and Middle East largest immigrant group Over 40 percent of immigrant population mostly from South and East
Asia countries China and India are major source countries
14
Retirements
About 29.8% of all workers employed in Ontario in 2001 are expected to retire over the period 2001 to 2015
Retirement rates vary significant depending on the age structure and typical retirement age of an occupational group Strongest retirement pressures are expected in the health, primary
industry, management occupations and social science education and government service sectors. Many of these occupations require university level education
Least affected sectors include natural and applied science and sales and service occupations
15
Occupational Outlook
Selected skill shortages exist but pressures not as acute as in Western Canada
Ontario has relatively more Management, Business and Administrative and Processing Manufacturing jobs
Weakness in manufacturing based occupations: assembly, processing, machine operation
Pressures mainly on occupations where supply is constrained
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Occupational Distribution
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Sales and Service Occupations
Business, Finance and Administrative Occupations
Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators andRelated Occupations
Management Occupations
Occupations in Social Science, Education,Government Service and Religion
Natural and Applied Sciences and RelatedOccupations
Occupations Unique to Processing, Manufacturingand Utilities
Health Occupations
Occupations in Art, Culture, Recreation and Sport
Occupations Unique to Primary Industry
Canada
Ontario
17
Occupational Trends
Technical and Related Occupations in Health
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2007
Heavy Equipment and Crane Operators Including Drillers
85
100
115
130
145
2000 2007
Secretaries
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2007
Ontario Employment
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000 2007
18
Occupations in demand
Senior managers finance Financial managers Banking credit and other financial
managers Financial and investment analysts Specialists in HR Biologists Metallurgical and materials engineers Mining engineers Geological engineers
Computer engineers Physicians Pharmacists Registered nurses Medical laboratory technologists Medical radiation technologists Medical sonographers Licensed practical nurses
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Who Produces LMI?
Service Canada and HRSDC
National, Regional and Local levels
Provincial government partners and the Forum of Labour Market Ministers
Sector councils
NGOs and private sector providers eg. Career Cruising, Workopolis, Ontario Workinfonet
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Federal Provincial Cooperation
The Canada-Ontario Labour Market Development Agreement commits Ontario and the federal government to work together to develop a Labour Market Information Strategy for Ontario.
This will help us to build an effective, efficient and accessible labour market information system, for the benefit of all Ontarians.
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SC Local LMI on the webhttp://www.labourmarketinformation.ca
Series of products produced locally for communities across Canada Occupational Profiles Potential Employers by Occupation Training Resources Wages by Occupation Labour Market Bulletin / Review News Flash