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REFLECTIONS ON SEPTEMBER MEETING
Overview of September Meeting
• Entrepreneurship & fostering a start-up ecosystem– NS population challenges– The Communitech Example– ICT (Brilliant Labs, UIT, Volta)– OceanTech
• Collective impact as a methodology
Meeting Messages
– Youth retention is an opportunity for NS– Waterloo (similar size, less assets, less
opportunities) used a start-up ecosystem approach to turn around
– There is a lot of community activity in ICT but to scale it, everyone has a role
– In the ocean sector we have a competitive advantage & there is an opportunity to exploit that advantage
4 © 2014 FSG
Collective impact initiatives are characterized by five core conditions
Source: Kania, John and Mark Kramer. Collective Impact. Stanford Social Innovation Review, 2011
COMMON AGENDA
MUTUALLY REINFORCING
ACTIVITIES
CONTINUOUSCOMMUNICATION
BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE
SHARED MEASUREMENT
• Common understanding of the problem
• Shared vision for change
• Collecting data and measuring results
• Focus on performance management
• Shared accountability
• Differentiated approaches• Coordination through joint plan of action
• Consistent and open communication
• Focus on building trust
• Separate organization(s) with staff
• Resources and skills to convene and coordinate participating organizations
Mobilizing Broad Based ActionYouth out-migration & Emerging Entrepreneurship
• What is the common understanding of the ‘challenge’?
• What is the shared vision for change?
• What can oneNS members do to ‘mobilize broad based action’?
COMMUNICATIONS UPDATE
Communications
– Committee met• Gaynor, Henry, Rankin• Meeting monthly
– Communications plan/approach discussed• Available
– Agreement to ramp up– Your involvement
• Protocols• 1 pager
Current Activities
• Monthly online update• September newsletter update• Letter to MLAs
– EG: NDP action• Twitter updates• Good morning Nova Scotia
– Good news story on Facebook• Engage NS Share Thanksgiving• Starting to connect groups taking action
– Engage NS/Colchester
Short Term
• Media• Outreach campaign RFP • Urgent Call to Dinner• October online live discussion - Exports• Package to Coalition and MLAs • October content • Call to orgs to commit to a quick win and long
term action working toward goals (timing)• List of ways to take action
MOVING FORWARD
Moving Forward
• Executive Steering Committee for 10 year plan• Workplan updates• Activity updates since September meeting
– Volta – next steps– Brilliant Labs – advancing with business plan – Oceans – progressing
November 14, 2014
• Location: Annapolis Valley Area (tbc)• Proposed meeting: additional time potential• Additional proposed activities/opportunities• Meeting Focus:
– Youth & international student retention– GHP Connector Program– Immigration Action Team update
November 27, 2014
• Location: Halifax area • Proposed Meeting time: 2:00 – 5:30 (tbc)• Meeting Focus:
– Youth & Social Entrepreneurship– Marc Kielburger, Co-Founder, Me To We
• OneNS Holiday Reception
NOVA SCOTIA’S GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS & TRADE
October 2 – Key Theme
Reaching our International Trade GoalsFraming the Discussion
1. What is the most significant change that will improve NS Trade?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?
THOMAS STORRINGReaching our international trade goals
Reaching our International Trade GoalsDiscussion Questions
1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS Trade?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?
NS in a 2 Speed WorldFraming the Discussion
1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS position?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?
KEVIN LYNCH
GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS ARE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL GROWTH EQUATION
GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY AND DEMOGRAPHICS ARE RESHAPING THE GLOBAL GROWTH EQUATION
Kevin G. Lynch
Vice-Chair BMO Financial Group,and
Former Clerk of the Privy Council and Secretary to Cabinet, Government of Canada
“One Nova Scotia” RoundtableHalifax, Nova Scotia
October 2, 2014
21One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 1: The context facing Canada and Nova Scotia is changing
The core question facing us in Nova Scotia is: how well and how quickly are we adapting to this change?
The demographic imperative - we’re
aging, with profound impacts
Globalization 2.0 - the hyper-
connected world
Global financial crisis - with
endless consequences
Technology revolution - changing
everything
The competitiveness paradigm shift -
need an innovation engine
22One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 2: The new global economic reality is a “two-speed world”
2-speed World: By the Numbers
2012 2013 2014
2015
Avg growth 2012-15
Emerging Economies 5.1 4.7 4.6 5.2 4.9
Emerging Asia 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.6
China 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.5
Advanced Economies 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.4 1.7
US 2.8 1.9 1.7 3.0 2.4
EU-
0.7 -0.4 1.1 1.5 0.4
Canada 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.1
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July 2014
2-Speed World: The Visual
1-2%growt
h
6-7%growth
5%growth
23One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 3: Trade diversification drives growth
Rank Top Canadian Export Markets, 2013
% of all 2013 Exports of Goods and Services
Size of Economy (2013 USD Billion, GDP)
4-year Average Growth: 2013-2016
1 United States 75.9% 16,800 2.7%
2 China 4.3% 9,181 7.4%
3 United Kingdom 3.0% 2,536 2.4%
4 Japan 2.3% 4,902 1.1%
5 Mexico 1.1% 1,259 2.8%
6 Hong Kong 1.0% 274 3.6%
7 Netherlands 0.8% 800 0.8%
8 South Korea 0.7% 1,222 3.5%
9 Germany 0.7% 3,636 1.3%
10 France 0.7% 2,737 1.1%
11 India 0.6% 1,871 5.7%
12 Belgium 0.5% 507 1.0%
13 Brazil 0.5% 2,243 2.4%
14 Norway 0.4% 511 1.6%
15 Italy 0.4% 2,072 0.3%
Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oct 2013, Stats Canada
24One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 4: Lack of trade diversification has costs
Export Values comparing actual Canadian activity weighting with China and Emerging Market Economies to what it
would be with US weighting
Exports to Emerging Market Economies
% Share of total exports
Note: Bank of Canada foreign activity measures calculated based on 2012 share of Canada and US exports to China and select EMEs. The numbers displayed represent the gap between 2013Q2 exports and the level of exports implied by the recalculated foreign activity measures.Values expressed in 2007 chained dollars.Sources, IMF, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada calculations. Las Observance 2013Q2
Canada UK Germany US Japan Australia0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: IMF Last observation: 2012
%
25One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 5: Asia is a market for Canada’s natural resources, and much more
Sources: OECD, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries , http://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf; McKinsey. Global Insight, February 2009; MGI China Model, February 2009; MGI
Numbers (millions) and Share (percent) of the Global Middle Class
2009 2020
North America 338 18% 333 10%
Europe 664 36% 703 22%
Central and South America
181 10% 251 8%
Asia Pacific 525 28% 1740 54%
Sub-Saharan Africa
32 2% 57 2%
Middle East and North Africa
105 6% 165 5%
World 1845 100% 3249 100%
Private Domestic Consumption2020 (Forecast)
CAGR2007-2020(%)
2.2
1.5
6.3
1.9
2.3
3.8
1.2
1.5
8.3
1.3
26One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 6: There are many untapped export opportunities in Asia for Nova Scotia firms
Consumers - $22 T consumption in emerging markets in 2025 and almost 2B middle class consumers - wanting better foodstuffs, better housing, better financial services, better education, etc.
Natural Resources - A 30% increase in global energy demand, of which China and India alone will account for 60% by 2035.
Infrastructure - $27 T expected infrastructure spend in emerging Asia, creating opportunities in engineering services, consulting, financing , specialty services, as well as basic materials.
Agriculture and Food - Middle class wants variety in agriculture and foodstuff as well as increased food safety.
Tourism - approximately 80 million outbound Chinese travelers in 2012, growing to over 110 million in 2015 - fastest growing segment in the world.
Education - 1 B Asian youth to educate in any given year, and Canada/Nova Scotia have high quality, reasonably priced product offerings.
Health Care - Spending expected to triple across Asia by 2020 but public systems are rudimentary-to-mediocre, and private systems are mixed.
27One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 7: Consider the energy opportunities, and risks
CANADA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONUNDRUM
US Hydrocarbon Supply
US Hydrocarbon Demand
+ 100% reliance on US market
for gas, oil and electricity exports
+Increasing Canadian
unconventional supply capacity: oil sands + shale
gas
= Declining Canadian security
of energy demand
Global energy demand:
• >33% growth by 2035• <5% growth in OECD• China demand > U.S.
Global energy supply:
• Shale oil, oil sands hhh• Shale gas hhhh• Renewables h
Energy technology:
• Fracking, oil sands• Renewables • Water remediation; CO2
Global
risk/uncertainty:
• Geopolitical: Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, Russia, South China Sea
r r
rr
Global energy equation:
r
• Shifts in security of global demand/supply
• U.S. energy self-sufficiency
• Global gas market?
28One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 8: Consider the food and agriculture opportunities, what we’re capable of and what we’re missing
50
85 90 94
100% =
ROW
China
Dairy
383
Beef
260
Poultry
173
Pork
400
Sources: McKinsey. USDA, NBS, Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT)
China’s share of consumption%, 100% = $B Total
Agricultural Resources
Ranking
Lentils 1st
Linseed 1st
Mustard Seed 1st
Dry Peas 1st
Forest 2nd
Barley 2nd
Canola 2nd
Blueberries 2nd
Cranberries 2nd
Mixed Grain 2nd
Wheat 8th
Canada’s global production rankings for agricultural resources
50
15 10 6
29One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 9: Consider the education opportunities, with Australia the best example of what is possible
SOURCE: McKinsey “International Education: A Key Driver of Canada’s Future Prosperity,” Advisory Panel on Canada’s International Education Strategy, August 2012; Government of Quebec
International student market share (est.)
Percent
InternationalstudentsNumber
UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Canada
Australia
10
18
5
13
428,000
723,000
240,000
557,000
30One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 10: Consider the value added tourism opportunities, and what it will take to capture them
Chart Title
Mongolia 0.3
Canada
0.3
0.3Germany
0.4
0.4
Indonesia 0.6
UK
1.1
Cambodia
Thailand
Australia
Singapore
1.5
1.2
1.0
USA
Russia
0.7
0.8
Vietnam
1.4
France
1.6
1.7
Taiwan
Japan
Malaysia
China international travelers by destination
Millions, 2011
1.8
2.4South Korea
SOURCE: McKinsey. CEIC, China tourism yearbook, Euromonitor (2011) Ctrip survey 2/2013; China Tourism Academy “China outbound travel satisfaction survey”
Singapore 79.5
Germany 80.0
South Africa 80.2
Brazil 80.3
Argentina 81.0
France 82.3
New Zealand
82.5Spain
82.6
Italy 82.7
Canada 84.5
Chinese tourist satisfaction rate
Chart Title
31One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 11: How well positioned are Canada and Nova Scotia for success in today’s global economy?
In today’s hyper-competitive world, the question for Nova Scotians is: is being “pretty good”, good enough?
Rankings
Global Competitive-ness Index (WEF)
Innovation Capacity (WEF)
ProductivityGDP per employed worker, current prices, USD (OECD)
Soundness of Financial Systems (WEF)
Net Debt to GDP, 2013(IMF)(lowest to highest)
Tertiary Education, % of Population (OECD)
K-12 Pisa Results: Math (OECD)
Number of Universities in Top 100 (Times Higher Education)
Ranking of Cities – EIU Global Liveability(# of cities in top 10; ties settled based on rankings)
Institutional Strength and Resilience, OECD Countries (World Bank)
Norway
Finland
Sweden
Estonia
Denmark
12th
18th
Canada
New Zealand
South Africa
Hong Kong
Singapore
1st
58th
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
Australia
Canada
5th
1st
Switzerland
Singapore
Finland
Germany
United States
14th
5th
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
Canada
UnitedStates
Canada
Japan
United States
New Zealand
Finland
1st
3rd
China (Shanghai)
Singapore
Hong Kong
Taipei
Korea
13th
36th
Australia
Canada
Austria
Finland
New Zealand
2nd
n/a
Switzerland
Finland
Germany
Israel
United States
27th
5th
Luxembourg
Norway
US
Ireland
Belgium
17th
3rd
Finland
New Zealand
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
9th
17th
32One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
GLOBAL 54UAE 79China 79Singapore 73Indonesia 72India 69Malaysia 65Canada 60Netherlands 60Mexico 59Hong Kong 59Australia 58Brazil 57Germany 57Argentina 53U.K. 52Sweden 51S. Korea 51S. Africa 50U.S. 49France 46Japan 44Italy 43Turkey 41Spain 39Ireland 39Russia 37Poland 35
Global Trust Index, 2014
Financial services
Media
Banks
Chemicals
Energy
Pharmaceuticals
Consumer health companies
Telecommunications
Brewing and spirits
Consumer packaged goods
Entertainment
Food and beverage
Automotive
Consumer electronics manufacturing
Technology
50%
51%
51%
55%
59%
59%
60%
63%
64%
65%
65%
66%
70%
75%
79%
Global Trust in Sectors, 2014
Observation 12: Trust matters for leading change
33One Nova Scotia Roundtable, Halifax, Oct 2, 2014
Observation 13: Culture and attitudes matter to success for Nova Scotia in this profoundly changing world
• We need to avoid “short term-ism” --- it is hard to build for our long term future with a quarterly mindset. A focused, long term Strategic Plan, with clear implementation milestones and accountabilities, is a good place to start.
• We need to avoid “status quo-ism” --- it cannot be a strategy for long term success in a profoundly changing world. Re-orienting the economy towards more innovation-intensive firms, particularly start ups, is key.
• We need to avoid “parochial-ism” --- everyone needs clear “going global” strategies today. Job #1 for Canada and Nova Scotia is focussed, export market diversification.
• We need to avoid “risk aversion” in policy and operations. Consider a number of immediate innovations: reverse trade missions; foreign student strategy; incubator(s); pervasive co-op; and Chinese tourism as possible places.
NS in a 2 Speed WorldDiscussion Questions
1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS position?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts
The Clearwater Example Framing the Discussion
1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS position?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?
J.P. DEVEAUGlobal Competitiveness and Trade Action Team
Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team
2 October 2014
Agenda
• Mandate of the Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team• Tonight’s objective • Initial ideas• Next steps
38
The Global Competitiveness and Trade Action Team will focus on these goals to be achieved by 2024:
39
GOAL 5: VALUE OF EXPORTSNova Scotia will have increased the total annual value of exports (international and inter-provincial), currently in the $14B range, by 50% to exceed $20B
$20B
850 1275GOAL 6: FIRMS PARTICIPATING IN EXPORT TRADEThe number of Nova Scotia firms participating in export trade will have increased by 50% over the current level of 850
GOAL 15: FISHERIES AND AGRICULTURE EXPORTSThe value of exports from the fisheries (including aquaculture) and the agricultural sectors will each have doubled on a sustainable basis
Game Changer VI: Rebuilding Our Trade Economy
$14B
Nova Scotia should embrace a free trade orientation and become a champion among provinces for the reduction of both internal and external trade barriers.
What is the path to achieving these goals?
• Companies who have something exportable (and are not) must start to export
• Companies who are currently exporting must increase their exports
• We must attract companies who can export to NS
40
This begs the following question for each group -
• Companies who have something exportable (and are not) must start to export
‒ Why are you not exporting?
• Companies who are currently exporting must increase their exporting
‒ What does it take for you to double your exports?
• We must attract companies who can export to NS
‒ What does it take for you to come to NS?
41
Tonight’s objective
• To review and seek feedback on initial ideas to move the needle on global competitiveness and trade
42
Drivers of competitiveness and productivity per Michael Porter
43
Quality of the Overall Business
Environment• Improve business
environment by focusing efforts on strategic sectors/clusters
Speed up regulations,
permits, licensing
Remove unnecessary costs of doing
business
Design policies to
support growth
1
Drivers of competitiveness and productivity per Michael Porter
44
Cluster Development
• Make strategic choices to focus on sectors/clusters with competitive advantages and growth potential
Leverage existing strengths when
building/ choosing clusters
Compete to serve
international markets
Align policies and programs to
support
2
Drivers of competitiveness and productivity per Michael Porter
45
Policy Coordination Among Multiple Levels
of Geography/ Government
• Relentlessly support improvements to
– Capital spending– Existing processes– Training and education– Innovation– Entrepreneurship with
global innovation
Efforts should support
enhancements to productivity and innovationUse existing
resources differently/
better
3
Drivers of competitiveness and productivity per Michael Porter
46
Quality of the Overall Business Environment
• Improve business environment by focusing efforts on strategic sectors/clusters
Policy Coordination Among Government,
Academia, Private Sector
• Relentlessly support improvements to
– Capital spending– Existing processes– Training and education– Innovation– Entrepreneurship with
global innovation
Cluster Development
• Make strategic choices to focus on sectors/clusters with competitive advantages and growth potential
Speed up regulations,
permits, licensing
Remove unnecessary costs of doing
business
Design policies to
support growth
Efforts should support
enhancements to productivity and innovationUse existing
resources differently/
better
Leverage existing strengths when
building/ choosing clusters
Compete to serve
international markets
Align policies and programs to
support
Start with the business environment
47
Quality of the Overall
Business Environment
IMMEDIATE FOCUS (next 6 months)
• Conduct research with:a. Successful exporters –
what would it take for you to double exports?
b. Potential exporters – what prevents you from exporting?
• Identify short-term regulatory changes and other ways to improve the business environment to encourage exports
1
Then identify the most attractive clusters
48
LONGER TERM FOCUS(starting spring 2015)
• Discuss development of cluster strategy at spring coalition meeting
• Proceed to make strategic choices about most attractive clusters for NS
• Develop roadmap to build the chosen clusters
Cluster Development
2
Coordinate policies to advance the chosen clusters
49
LONG TERM FOCUS
• Implement roadmap to build the chosen clusters including policy coordination
Policy Coordination
Among Government,
Academia, Private Sector
3
What role can the private sector play in global competitiveness and trade?
50
Support 4Front recommendations
• Strategic competitiveness assessment
• Industry collaboration• Reverse trade mission
Be vocal and organized
• Support initiatives where we can compete globally
• Support the view that the private sector creates jobs
Provide mentorship • Students• Entrepreneurs• Other companies
Enhance private sector leadership
(including leadership of NSBI)
Next steps
51
The Clearwater Example (?)Discussion Questions
1. What is the most significant change that will improve the NS position?
2. What can oneNS to improve the conditions?3. What are the immediate opportunities?4. Who are the leaders or catalysts?
DEFINING A COMMON AGENDANova Scotia’s Global Competitiveness & Trade
oneNS & Global Trade
• Informing the development of a comprehensive 10 year plan
• Mobilizing broad based action
Discussion Questions
• What is the common understanding of the ‘challenge’?
• What is the shared vision for change?• What measure(s) will indicate success?• What can oneNS members do to ‘mobilize
broad based action’?• What will oneNS members do to mobilize
broad based action?
Meeting Close
• Meeting Reflections– Initial thoughts– Most important take away– Opportunities for improvements
• Communications Support– Key meeting themes
ONE NS COALITION Next Meeting November 14 – Annapolis Valley