Post on 01-Apr-2015
On the road to better….
Response analysis
FSNWGFood Security and Nutrition Working Group
Efforts in 2012 & 2013
July 2010
1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details
Where are we now?
2. Situation Analysis seasonality for each livelihood systemWhere are we now?
3. Response analysis
What could we be doing now?
Situation & Response analysis – FSNWG 2012Regional IPC Map Seasonal Calendars Response matrix
4. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecastWhere are we going?
5. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast for each livelihood system and wealth groupWhere are we going?
7. ADVOCACY & PLANNINGWhat should we do?
6. Response analysis3-6 month action planWhat could we plan?
On the road to better….
Response analysis:
July 2010
Dec
embe
r 201
2
…past attempts have been challenging
…is complex, with various layers of enquiry to define the most appropriate response
…is context specific – down to LZ & district level
…its logical or simple for those with intimate knowledge of an area
…needs to link emergency activities to long-term sustainable development goals – identification of no regrets options
…should incorporate lessons from past good practice
…investigate options outside the box – innovation is key
Finding a common framework using different approaches…..2012
Steps
1. Situation
2. Scenario
3. Response
4. Contingency
Plan
Task
Current Conditions
Trigger Event Most Likely Outcomes
Explain Outcomes
Response Options
Response Selection
Contingency Plan
Purpose
FSN situationHotspot areasAffected pop.
Analogue Year/Event
Level of Risk Coping & Development Objectives
Options that best fit level of risk, coping, development context
RA considera-tions
Preparedness for timely implementation
Process
IPC situation analysisFEWS NETGov’t FSN WG e.g. KFSSGFSNAU……
IPC predictive analysisIGAD COFEl Nino/La Nina WGs
Scenario building(WFP, FEWS)
HEA Outcome analysis
RAFLEGSSPHERE
RAFDecision treesResponse selection matrix
Contingency planning:Gov’t e.g. DSGsWFPNGOsDonors?
Data
FSN mapsSeasonal calendarsPricesProduction etc
FSN mapsICPACNDVICEWARNPop data
Pop dataTrend dataQuantify the problem
HEA baseline dataLivelihood Context
RA considera-tions – FSN & marketCalendarsLT strategies
Do No Harm indicators
NDMA/ALRMPNGO plans & guidelines
Operating Environment Situational analysis
o Needs assessmento Causal analysiso Projection/forecast
Feasibility analysis Market assessment
o Feasibility of market interventions Donor resources Organizational capacity Partner agency capacity Government policy Access and security Timeliness Record of past programs
o M&E recordso Lessons learned documentation
Influence of large agencies Conditionality/targeting considerations Logistics Value for money analysis
Agency environment Organizational considerations
o Mandate and missiono Objectives in fieldo Capacity and skill set
Appropriateness considerations Internal comparison of response options
– related to best practice External analysis of gaps in response Risk assessment/ prevention of
unintended consequenceso Market distortion riskso Staff security and safetyo Recipient community securityo Risk of theft, diversion or corruptiono Reputational/legal risks to agencyo Do no harm analysiso Fits into ongoing interventions
Cost effectiveness Assessment of recipient preferences Evidence of post-distribution dynamics
Response Analysis Considerations adapted from Dan Maxwell et al. ODI
Regional seasonal calendars
Above normal Long rains Dry season
April May June July - Sept
Milk available.
Prices of staples increase slightly as own stocks diminish waiting for next harvest
Agricultural labour opportunities available –weeding
Good pasture/water availability
Cattle & shoat condition good/price increases- although susceptible to disease.
Improved availability of shoat & cattle milk
Calving conditions good but protection to young livestock in wet/cold conditions
Prolonged availability of pasture as rains are predicted to be good – access to milk
Seasonal response options: April – June 2013…..
Monitor• Monitor rain performance and pasture
and water regeneration, migration • Monitor crop performance, if rains below-
normal check marginal farmers/rainfed areas
Looking forward to next dry season July – Sept • Prioritise to keep kids in school• Preserve milk and fodder for the dry season• Diversification of off-farm income• Expansion of safety nets/ FSL support• Surge capacity of sectors• Design short-term interventions contribute to long-
term objectives• Opportunity to invest in long-term – innovation,
commercialisation, engage private sector, targeting settled poor
Cross-border Crisis Calendar Analysis: 2008/9Garissa-Afmadow El Niño/floods Contingency Planning
Assessment• No contingency plan in place• No analysis done on flood
scenario• Dissatisfaction with usefulness
of existing CPs for droughts• No mechanisms for
coordination across-borders• No mechanisms for joint
strategic analysis and planning across-Districts
What was done?• Crisis calendar analysis• Developed inter-agency
cross-border response strategy
• Looked at start-up timelines• Scheduled interventions and
decisions• Decided on cross-border
coordination mechanisms• Looked at what needs to
change for this to work!
Flood analysis – Garissa & Afmadow Sept 09
Drought Wajir Pastoralists 2010/2011 – survival threshold deficits
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
ref.year curr.year thresholds
% m
inim
um
fo
od
nee
ds
food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
ref.year curr.year thresholds
% m
inim
um
fo
od
nee
ds
food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival
WSG: P 58% WSG: M 50% WSG: R 30%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
ref.year curr.year thresholds
% m
inim
um
fo
od
nee
ds
food aid/safety netsotherlabourlivestock salescrop salescropsmilk salesmilkThresholdslivelihoods protectionsurvival
Impact of moderate El- Niño 2012 : Turkana Agro-past
Kerio Riverine Agro-pastoralistsVery poorLivelihood deficit 11%Survival deficit 35%
PoorLivelihood deficit 12%Survival deficit 10%
Turkwell Riverine Agro-pastoralistsVery poorLivelihood deficit 26%Survival deficit 9%
ref.year curr.year thresholds0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop saleslivestock sales
Total Income (food +cash)
District: KerioLivelihood Zone: KAPHousehold type: VP
ref.year curr.year thresholds0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop saleslivestock sales
Total Income (food +cash)District: TurkwellLivelihood Zone: TAPHousehold type: VP
ref.year curr.year thresholds0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
survivallivelihoods protectionThresholdsmilkmilk salescropscrop sales
Total Income (food +cash)District: KerioLivelihood Zone: KAPHousehold type: VP
FSNWG Livestock & pastoral Sub-groupIdentification of response activitiesSectors
•Livestock health & feed•Human nutrition, health & sanitation•Access & availability of food•Water harvesting & collection•Conflict & cross-border issues•Infra-structure•Access to markets & market prices•Community-based Early Warning
+ Implications for programming
+ Drawing on best practice in similar analogue years
+ targeting hotspots & using on-going programming as entry points
Sep
tem
ber
2012