On the Nature of Global Change

Professor John Harrington, Jr. (jharrin@k-state.edu)

Department of Geography, Kansas State University

Planet Under Pressure Mar 2012 LondonInternational Conference on Adaptation May 2012

TucsonClimate Change: Impacts & Responses Jul 2012 Seattle

Unprecedented Types, Rates, Scales, Combinations, and the

Magnitude of ChangePlanetary Destabilization

“… the Earth system is now operating

in a ‘no-analogue state’.”

2004

Symptoms of human induced global changeSymptoms of human induced global change::- warming- rapid change in surface appearance (LUCC)- changes in chemical indicators (nitrogen)- change in gaseous composition (atmos)- loss of key biotic components - new organisms have been introduced - rapid depletion of stored reserves (water)- rapid depletion of stored reserves (energy)- the rate of change is increasing

1973 1999

Climate change is part of something

bigger

Global Change– Global climate change (CO2 & global weirding)– Air pollution (gross insults & micro toxicity)– Shrinking glaciers & loss of Arctic sea ice– Population growth and resource consumption– Land use change – deforestation for agric.– Water resources (reservoirs & irrigation)– Ocean acidification, sea level rise, coral reefs– Loss of biodiversity (major extinction event)– New ideas to hopefully change the conversation

• Ecological Footprints and Overshoot (1.5 Earths)• Ecosystem services (externalities and “the commons”)• Sustainability Science Vulnerability, Resilience• Planetary Boundaries The Anthropocene• Planetary Stewardship The Wildland Garden• Earth Hour (late March)

The more you read in this subject area, the more you understand the multiple connections, the

complexity, and just how hard it will be to make the changes needed for a sustainable transition

Oxfam2012

Annual cycle – drivenby summer vegetation greenup in the Northern Hemisphere

Lower values at theend of the growingseason

CO2 levels are now at 394 ppm (up 39.6%)CO2 levels were at

315ppm at the start of

the Mauna Loa record.

The CO2 level for

pre-industrial times

was 280 ppm.

Understanding the Earth system (feedbacks and response times)

indicates that there is more to come

• Warmer areas on Earth will emit slightly shorter wavelengths and water vapor is the main GHG

• Cooler areas on Earth will emit slightly longer wavelength energy and CO2 is the main GHG

Global pattern of temperature anomalies for 2000-2009 compared with the 1950-1980

base period.More CO2 and cold places warm up.

Images of change in alpine glacial ice from Africa and North AmericaImages of change in alpine glacial ice from Africa and North America

Mount Kilimanjaro

Glacier National Park

The loss of Arctic Sea ice.

The loss of Arctic Sea ice.

Human Dimensions of Global ChangeLand Use ChangeLand Use Change

More land was converted to cropland in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years between 1700 and 1850.

Cultivated Systems in 2000 cover 25% of the terrestrial surface

Unprecedented Change: Biomes

Land use change different directions in different regions

Rates of ecosystem conversion remain high or are increasing for specific ecosystems and regions

Ecosystems in some regions are returning to conditions similar to their pre-conversion states

“The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild”

E. Sanderson et al. 2002 BioScience

Last Child in the Woods

There is a human footprint on 83%

of the land.

Anthropogenic Biomes of the WorldUrban & dense settlements

11 Urban 12 Dense settlements

Villages

21 Rice villages 22 Irrigated villages 23 Cropped & pastoral villages 24 Pastoral villages 25 Rainfed villages 26 Rainfed mosaic villages

*Mosaic: >25% tree cover mixed with > 25% pasture and/or cropland

Croplands 31 Residential irrigated cropland

32 Residential rainfed mosaic

33 Populated irrigated cropland

34 Populated rainfed cropland 35 Remote croplands

Rangelands 41 Residential rangelands

42 Populated rangelands

43 Remote rangelands

Wildlands 61 Wild forests

62 Sparse trees

63 Barren

Forested 51 Populated forests

52 Remote forests

*

Ellis & Ramankutty

– 5 to possibly 25% of global freshwater use exceeds long-term accessible supplies (low to medium certainty)

– 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty)

Changes in Water ResourcesChanges in Water Resources

A period of rapid and unprecedented global change

The Green Revolution:genetics, fertilizer, tractors, & irrigation

“turning oil into food”

The pace of growth is slowing

Made it in Oct 2011

How do we feed the next 2 billion?

Consilience = a fancy way to describe how science is changing

• E.O. Wilson’s 1999 book, Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge - provided a powerful restatement of the importance of linking major areas of scholarly thought

• C.P Snow’s 1959 lecture: The Two Cultures - major thesis was: that the breakdown in communication between the sciences and the humanities was a major barrier to solving the world's problems

Four cultures: new synergies for engaging society, MC Nisbet et al., 2010, Frontiers in Ecology. Vol 8(6): 329-331.

Consilience: Biocomplexity

• Biocomplexity = the study of complex structures and behaviors that arise from nonlinear

interactions of biotic agents and abiotic factors, across multiple scales

• Biocomplexity was introduced as a new initiative at NSF for funding integrative projects in

the late 1990s by Rita Colwell• Rita Colwell was NSF Director from 1998 – 2004

The role of women in scientific discourse is critically important

Reciprocal Effects & Feedback LoopsNonlinearity and ThresholdsSurprisesLegacy Effects and Time LagsResilienceHeterogeneity

New framings and new questions

NSF now has SEES

• Achieving a sustainable human future in the face of both gradual and abrupt environmental change is one of the most significant challenges facing humanity

• All eleven NSF Directorates and Offices have joined together to support Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability (SEES)

• Requests for proposals in: “sustainable chemistry”

Science, Engineering, and Education for Sustainability

“… sole authors did produce the papers of singular distinction in science and engineering and social science in the 1950s, but the mantle of extraordinarily cited work has passed to teams by 2000.” (p. 1038)

It takes about a year of working together to establish a good team

life supporting

resources

declining

consumption of life supporting

resources

rising

we are in what E.O. Wilson

(in 2002) referred to as “the bottleneck”

Can global leaders find a way to addressa long-term and global problem?

Two ‘imperatives’ work against a solution

The imperative of the present Topophilia = love of place; we need geophilia or gaiaphilia

The imperative of the local

“The relative indifference to the environment springs, I believe, from deep within human nature. The human

brain evidently evolved to commit itself emotionally only to a small piece of geography, a limited band of kinsmen,

and two or three generations into the future.” E.O. Wilson 2002

Science and engineering enable new technologies that accompany change

There is a need to move toward sustainability

“To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.”

Buckminster Fuller

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has.”

Margaret Mead