October 2011

Weichert, Princeton Office October 2011

Market Update/ Forecast Seminar

Offers analysis of the Princeton & Greater

Princeton, NJ real estate markets & effective

strategies to buy and sell.

Presented by:

Joshua D Wilton

Broker/ Sales Rep.

Weichert Realtors

Princeton, NJ

(o) 609-921-1900

www.weichert-princeton.com

www.facebook.com/weichertprinceton

Agenda

1. The Market

- A History

- Forecast for 2012

2. Strategies for Buying

3. Strategies for Selling

Agenda

1. The Real Estate Market ( a

history brief history)

Unsold Inventory from the MLS in Weichert Market AreasNovember 2004 thru November 2010

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

ASHBY TOTAL DOEPPER TOTAL BIXON TOTAL MCDONALD TOTAL PREVETE TOTAL WATERS TOTAL WILLIAMS TOTAL

11/ 15/ 0431,676

11/ 14/ 0541,156

11/ 13/ 0684,621

11/ 12/ 0788,414

11/ 17/ 0884,942

* added Waters & Williams Region to Totals

11/ 15/ 1092,096

11/ 16/ 0977,985

In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years.

Variance % 2010 to 2009NY (Ashby) +13.11%CT (Doepper) +118.53%Passaic/Hudson/Bergen NJ (Bixon) +5.86%Western Central NJ/Lehigh Valley PA (McDonald) +6.78%Northern and Central NJ (Prevete) +9.24%Eastern Central/Shore Points NJ (Waters) +10.63%Southern NJ (Williams) +10.87%

Affordability Index

Source: NAR Housing Affordability Index 1971 to 2010

Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US Families to buy a house. 100 means that families earning the national median income have just the amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home.

Higher than100 means they have more than enough. Lower than 100 means they have less than enough.

Definition: A measure of the financial ability of US Families to buy a house. 100 means that families earning the national median income have just the amount of money needed to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home.

Higher than100 means they have more than enough. Lower than 100 means they have less than enough.

183.7Aug 2011

Affordability Index

1st Time Home Buyer Index

2011: State of the Market

+8.29%1 yr change‘09 vs ‘11

Historically Low Interest Rates

30 Year Fixed interest rate

3.94%Lowest in recorded history

So why is the market so tight…?

5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.

How Long Will Interest RatesRemain Low?

What will the future bring…?

A long term outlook in NJ & Mercer County

‘Supply & Demand’

Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecast

NJ Housing Permits

Source: CensusSource: Census

In thousand units

NJ Housing Permits

Source: CensusSource: Census

RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS AUTHORIZED 2000-2008

COUNTY 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total

Atlantic County 1,625 1,685 2,020 2,285 2,075 2,002 1,893 1,136 794 15,515Bergen County 2,847 1,784 1,771 1,289 2,142 2,972 2,164 2,957 1,311 19,237Burlington County 2,775 2,184 2,359 1,805 1,516 1,475 2,784 1,037 976 16,911Camden County 796 757 1,160 1,934 1,413 1,706 1,183 1,191 895 11,035Cape May County 1,242 1,403 1,422 1,693 2,149 2,433 1,580 1,081 485 13,488Cumberland County 255 256 310 374 566 630 737 683 336 4,147Essex County 1,491 1,548 1,588 2,235 2,343 3,128 3,284 1,854 1,314 18,785Gloucester County 1,337 1,635 1,802 1,859 2,050 2,075 1,141 920 788 13,607Hudson County 1,338 1,116 1,534 2,116 3,808 4,498 4,275 3,081 3,229 24,995Hunterdon County 616 685 602 814 648 506 350 316 206 4,743Mercer County 1,283 1,355 1,428 1,188 1,641 1,296 847 700 625 10,363Middlesex County 2,460 1,884 1,999 2,306 2,622 3,206 2,567 1,597 1,020 19,661Monmouth County 2,912 2,194 2,372 2,756 2,628 2,584 2,820 2,060 1,526 21,852Morris County 2,684 1,577 1,914 1,555 1,427 2,503 1,670 1,052 795 15,177Ocean County 5,633 3,830 3,534 4,009 3,818 2,904 2,114 2,160 1,527 29,529Passaic County 457 631 689 829 763 647 850 760 432 6,058Salem County 161 180 170 307 334 297 298 148 198 2,093Somerset County 2,282 1,439 1,530 1,260 1,362 1,220 1,058 926 791 11,868Sussex County 719 808 679 587 612 668 603 360 302 5,338Union County 776 551 681 1,198 1,399 1,278 1,593 1,123 673 9,272Warren County 896 765 877 585 620 560 512 258 146 5,219 New Jersey 34,585 28,267 30,441 32,984 35,936 38,588 34,323 25,400 18,369 278,893

Long Term Supply …

Richardson Commercial

Long Term Demand …

Source: NAR, November 2008 Forecasthttp://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/pub/factbook/merfct.pdf

Long Term Demand in Mercer County …

Source: https://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/docs/countyProfile/NJ/34021.pdf

(Mercer County) Population & Growth Population Annual Growth Rate2013 Total Population 383,677 0.6%2008 Total Population 371,963 0.7%2000 Total Population 350,761

Affordabilitywill

Spur Recovery

1. Real Estate is Local

Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real

Estate Market:

4. Real Estate is Local5. Real Estate is Local

Mercer County SF Inventory 01-10

Trendmls.com

Mercer County SF Settled Units 01-10

Trendmls.com

2010 v 2011 Market ComparisonTown 2011

Listed2011 Sold

2010 Listed

2010 Sold

2011DOM

2010 DOM

2011 Sold $

2010 Sold $

2011 Avg. $

2010 Avg. $

Pton Twp.

306 142 290 135 100 95 $134K $119K $950K $889K

Pton Boro

121 50 115 51 887 117 $42K $48K $842K $942K

West Windsor

382 224 469 264 72 57 $116K $140K $521K $532K

Lawrence 429 192 495 242 97 87 $59K $81K $310K $335K

Hope-well

296 119 350 146 111 115 $54K $73K $460K $504K

Ewing 513 168 575 210 116 94 $29K $44K $178K $211K

East Windsor

400 119 411 156 118 96 $30K $40K $252K $260K

Plains-boro

285 147 298 169 82 60 $56K $70K $319K $329K

1. You Understand the Local Market That You are Buying into or Selling out

of…-Inventory- Location

- Sales Patterns- Neighborhood, Location

- Style of Home, Beds, Baths, etc

Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)

Absorption Rate by Price Range

Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market

absorption and property values.

As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property

values depreciate annually.

Sample Market Absorption RateSample Market Absorption Rate

107 current active listings

4 reported sales in last 30 days

24.3months absorptionrate

Anytown., NJ

5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

35Market Scale for Supply & Market Scale for Supply & DemandDemand

High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High DemandNormal

Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values.

As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually.

Note: This Market Scale is valid only for absorption rates between 1 and 12 months.

2007 thru 2011 Market Activity Comparison: Week of 10/22

Active

Inventory

2007 Pending

(prev. 30 days)

Active

Inventory

Pending

(prev. 30 days)

Active

Inventory

Pending Sales

(prev 30 days)

Active Inventory

Pending Sales

(prev. 30 days)

Active Inventory

Pending Sales

(prev. 30 days)

Pton. Boro 52 3 42 3 44 7 46 2 44 7Pton Twp 118 5 100 3 122 11 134 9 158 3

W. Windsor 151 21 108 9 104 28 127 14 107 15Lawrence 235 9 196 10 197 30 207 15 195 10

East Windsor 214 11 200 15 164 35 225 7 225 7

Ewing 277 14 259 6 243 35 289 11 290 14Hamilton 596 37 594 36 534 107 639 40 640 49Hopewell

Twp. 186 5 125 5 153 24 159 3 169 5Cranbury 31 0 30 1 34 1 20 0 23 0Plainsboro 122 16 101 6 59 11 81 10 95 6

South Brunswick 202 16 211 16 164 18 259 13 258 13

Montgomery 137 16 117 12 128 23 159 13 139 20

10/18/11Towns Active

ListingsPending in Last 30 Days

Absorption Rate in Months

New Listings in 30 Days

Net Gain (Loss) to Market

Listings Reduced in 30 Days

% of Invent. Reduced

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Princeton Boro: All Styles

44 7 6.3 11 4 17 38.6% 0 3 5

Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses

20 3 6.7 6 3 8 40% 0 2 2

Pton-BoroSingle Family

24 4 6 5 1 9 37.5% 0 1 3

Pton Twp: All Styles

158 6 26.3 21 15 29 18.4% 5 6 13

Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses

24 1 24 5 4 4 16.7% 0 0 3

Pton Twp:Single Family

134 5 26.8 16 11 25 18.7% 5 6 10

Li1stings Reduced in 30 Days

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

West Windsor: All Styles

107 15 7.1 21 6 37 34.6% 7 8 21

West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses

21 2 10.5 7 5 3 14.3% 0 1 6

West Windsor55+

14 1 14 6 5 -- -- 0 0 1

West Windsor Single Family

72 12 6 8 -4 34 47.2% 7 7 14

Lawrence: All Styles

195 10 19.5 30 20 51 26.2% 17 5 12

Lawrence:Condo/THouses

58 4 14.5 5 1 22 38.4% 6 2 2

Lawrence: 55+

19 0 99 2 2 -- -- 1 0 1

Lawrence: Single Family

118 6 19.7 23 17 29 25.6% 10 3 9

10/18/11

Towns Active Listings

Pending in Last 30 Days

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

PlainsboroAll Styles

95 6 16 20 14 28 29% 19 0 10

PlainsboroCondo/ THouses

56 3 18.66 11 8 17 30% 12 0 6

Plainsboro55+

14 1 14 2 1 2 14% 1 0 3

PlainsboroSingle Family

25 2 12.5 6 4 9 36% 6 0 1

Cranbury:All Styles

23 0 99 1 1 7 30% 4 0 3

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Ewing: All Styles

290 14 20.7 37 23 64 22% 14 9 23

Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses

36 2 18 6 4 8 22% 3 4 5

Ewing 55+:

11 1 11 2 1 --- --- 0 0 1

Ewing:Single Family

243 11 22.1 29 18 56 23% 11 5 17

East Windsor:All Styles

225 7 32.1 34 27 42 19% 23 12 15

East Windsor:Condo/ Thouses

132 1 132 18 17 23 17% 17 7 6

East Windsor:55+

14 0 999 3 3 --- --- 0 0 0

East Windsor: Single Family

79 6 13.2 13 7 19 24% 6 5 9

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Hopewell Twp.All Styles

169 5 34 27 22 35 21% 6 8 13

Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses

14 2 7 3 1 4 28.5% 0 0 4

Hopewell Twp.:55+

6 0 0 0 0 -- -- 1 1 1

Hopewell Twp Single Family

149 3 50 24 21 31 21% 5 7 8

Hamilton: All Styles

640 49 13 107 58 157 24.5% 42 20 58

Hamilton:Condo/ THouses

98 7 14 19 12 20 20% 11 5 6

Hamilton:55+

45 4 11 9 5 -- -- 2 2 3

Hamilton: Single Family

497 38 13 80 42 137 27.5% 29 13 49

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

RobbinsvilleAll Styles

139 19 7 22 3 38 27% 11 8 13

RobbinsvilleCondo/ T.Houses

57 11 5 8 (3) 19 33% 4 5 5

Single Family

82 8 10 14 6 19 23% 7 3 7

Hightstown Boro: All Styles

69 3 23 9 6 16 23% 12 1 6

Pennington

18 3 6 3 0 5 27% 1 1 3

Hopewell Boro

13 1 13 2 1 3 23% 1 0 2

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Brunswick

All Styles

285 13 22 44 31 66 23 33 4 25

South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses

88 6 14.7 13 7 26 30 12 2 4

South Brunswick

34 1 34 2 1 5 15 2 1 5

South Brunswick

Single Family

163 6 27 29 23 35 21 19 1 16

Monroe:

All Styles504 8 63 89 81 86 17 6 62 54

Monroe:

55+312 5 62.4 67 62 54 17.3 3 29 48

Monroe:

Single Family

192 3 64 22 19 32 17 3 33 6

Expired Listings

W/drawn Listings

Closed Listings

Montgomery

All Styles 139 20 6.9 25 +5 26 19% 14 7 13

Montgomery

Condo/Twnhms 26 5 5.2 6 +1 1 4% 3 0 2

Single Family113 15 7.5 19 +4 25 22% 11 7 11

Hillsborough

All Styles 288 24 12 51 +27 63 22% 28 9 33

Hillsborough

Condo/Twnhms 106 10 10.6 22 +12 27 22% 13 7 11

Hillsborough

Single Family 182 14 13 29 +15 36 20% 15 2 22

Understand the Market That You are Buying/ Selling in…

I want to live/ sell in West Windsor…..

Sample Market Absorption RateSample Market Absorption Rate

107 current active listings

4 reported sales in last 30 days

24.3months absorptionrate

Anytown., NJ

5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.

West Windsor Colonials By Price

Price Actives Pendings Ab. Rate

$300-$500 17 3 5.6

500-$650 12 3 4

$650-$799 14 4 3.5

$800-$999 6 0 99

$1 million + 2 1 2

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone

$400-$600 16 1 16

$600-$799 19 2 9.5

$1.0 – 1.35 14 2 7

$1.36-$1.65 16 0 99

$1.65-$2.0 10 0 99

Princeton Twp. Single Fam. by Price Alone

$2.0 - $3.0 9 1 9

$3.0-$5.0 15 0 99

$5.0+ 3 0 99

Buying/ Selling Strategies

Source: MLS

‘I don’t want to buy a house and then watch it drop in value!’

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400

Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802

Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year -3% $319,1302nd Year 0% $319,1303rd Year 1% $322,3214th Year 3% $331,9905th Year 5% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500

Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @

$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000

Total Gain $44,200Create Equity

v Pay Rent

Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400

Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802

Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year 5 $319,1302nd Year 3% $319,1303rd Year 2% $322,3214th Year 2% $331,9905th Year 2% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $48,590

Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @

$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000

Total Gain $73,529Create Equity

v Pay Rent

+ The Amortization Schedule on a Loan

Yearly Schedule of Balances and PaymentsYear

Beginning Balance

Payment Principal InterestCumulative

PrincipalCumulative Interest

Ending Balance

2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72$311,272.0

2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34$306,650.7

2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28$301,768.7

2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84$296,611.3

2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48$291,163.0

Appreciation (conservitive): $19,500

+Amortization: $20,109

+ Tax Benefit of Home Ownership

$25,000+

Low Interest Rates: $5000___________________

total 5 year gain = $69,609

• “It's hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are.” ~ Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac2

Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)

1. ‘I am going to time the Market and buy/ sell at the time when

inventory & buyer count is in my favor…’

Source: MLS

1/7/2007 4/1/2007 6/24/2007 9/23/2007 12/16/2007

Gross # of Guests 2009

Weekly Guests Thru the Weichert Princeton Open Houses, 2010

Source: MLS

Inventory Levels, Princeton Twp. New Jersey, 2010

3. ‘I am going to wait until the price comes down

further and then make an offer/ if I lower my price I

will get lower bids…?Source: MLS

Don’t WaitWest Windsor: 75%

Homes currently Under Contract: 32

Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-positioning in line with the market :

East Windsor: 76%Homes currently Under Contract:

Don’t Wait

Plainsboro: 95%

Under contract within 30 days of Listing at the Right Price or Re-

positioning in line with the market : 20

It’s About Price

Sellers, if your listing hasn’t gone under contract in the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted it will not go under contract in

the next 30.

If the home your buyer wants has not had a price adjustment in the last 30 days it is the perfect time to go face to face with the seller

to negotiate!

Jeff Smith,

Loan Officer

Weichert Financial Services

Financial Benefits and Financial Benefits and Process of Home-Process of Home-

Ownership.Ownership.

Pop Quiz…Pop Quiz…

If you take out a $200,000 30 year fixed payment loan from

the bank, what is your monthly payment?A. $1901.

B. $1640.C. $1201.

D. $969.

1 Source: Freddie Mac 2 As reported in the Washington Post 12/26/09 3 As reported on CNBC 12/22/09

• “It's hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are.” ~ Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac2

Monthly Payment Savings

• Interest rates have dipped to 50-year lows, increasing buyer affordability.

One Year Ago Today

Mortgage Amount $300,000 $300,000

Monthly Payment (P&I) $1,704 $1,476

Savings $228/month

Monthly payments are based on interest rates of 5.5% on 9/13/2009 vs. 4.25% on 9/13/2010.

The interest rate assumption is based on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

Bought 2005:

$272,800Bought 2011

$245,000

$252 difference per month for 30 years

The Opportunity in 2011

• The first step is to meet with, me, Jeff

Smith!

Establish Establish YourYour Buying Buying PowerPower

The Impact of Pricing on the Salability of Your Home..…

All Negotiations, including real estate, are all about negotiation and control.

Home Staging

Who is in control?

It’s About PriceWest Windsor: 79%

East Windsor: 77%Homes currently Under Contract:

It’s About PricePlainsboro: 100%

14(7/7)

Robbinsville: 70%Homes currently Under Contract:

It’s About Price

If your listing hasn’t gone under contract in the last 30 days and the price is not adjusted

it will not go under contract in the next 30.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the

listing price as part of yours…

Source: MLS

Princeton Twp. 2010

The Price Trend Came up with a price of $850,000. I recommended a price of $799,000.

Negotiations are about leverage, use the listing price

as yours…

Listed at $799,000. 5 offers, sold at $942,000.

The seller had control.

One AimDetermining your best asking price.

Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.

Princeton Sold Homes, 2010

Days on Market

List to Sales Price Ratio 2010

Local Market Update

2. The Effect of Staging on the Value of a Home.

Home Staging

Who is in control?

The process of preparing homes for sale regardless of

Price, Location, or Condition

To achieve the maximum sales price in the minimum marketing time.

The GOAL is to appeal to the broadest range of BUYERS.

The Way You Live In Your Home…

… And The Way We Market And Sell A House Are Two Different Things.

“The Investment in Home Staging is Always Less than Your

First Price Reduction!”

Buyers Only Know What They See …

… Not The Way It Is Going To Be.

Home Staging

*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

“The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”

Home Staging

*Based on a StagedHomes.com survey of over 400 homes across Canada & the Continental US prepared for sale by an Accredited Staging Professional (ASP™) from June 2007 through November 2007.

The average increase in sales price of an

ASP Staged vs. non-Staged home is 6.9%.

That is an additional $31,050 on a $450,000

“The investment in home staging is always less than your first price reduction!”

One AimDetermining your best asking price.

Our unique method goes beyond the traditional assessment of comparable home prices by anticipating changing marketing conditions in your area.

Home Staging

Who is in control?

What is

‘Pre-Inspection?’

Pre-Inspection

WHAT DOES PRE-INSPECTION INCLUDE? The standard home inspector's report will review the condition of the home's heating system, central air

conditioning system (temperature permitting), interior plumbing and electrical systems; the roof, attic, and visible insulation; walls, ceilings, floors, windows and

doors; the foundation, basement, and visible structure.

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection

DOESN’T THE BUYER DO THE HOME INSPECTION?

Home Staging

Who is in control?

PRE-LISTING Home Inspection

Data on where most sales fall apart: attorney review, home inspection.

Fall Thru Percentage 2007: 26%Fall Thru Percentage 2010: 10%.

Home Improvements

I am moving out of the house, I do not want spend too much money to move.

I just spent $$ on a new kitchen, I want $$$$$$ back on that investment when I move.

Weichert Family of Companies

What will a real estate company

do for me?

Making Your Purchase as Making Your Purchase as Smooth as PossibleSmooth as Possible

Buying a home involves the careful coordination of many people.

Choosing a real estate team you can count on will make the process smoother

and easier.

• Time is money.

The Weichert The Weichert DifferenceDifference

• Stress kills.

• Time is life.

Educate You.

Negotiate on your behalf.

Offer advice on due diligence.

Manage all aspects of the transaction

process.

What Will a Weichert Agent Do for Me?

We’re Here to HelpWe’re Here to Help

The Entire Process is reviewed by Legal Council.

Become a Fan!

www.facbook.com/weichertprinceton

www.weichert-princeton.com

We post a ton of great market data on these two sites.

Resource and website list:

Realtor.org

http://www.facebook.com/pages/

NAR-Research/73888294183#

Remodeling.com

Resource and Website Resource and Website ListList

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx

Remodeling.com

www.Otteau.com

www.Pre-listing-inspection.com

Resource and Website Resource and Website List:List:

www.Housemaster.com

www.Stagingshoppingcenter.com

Resource and website Resource and website list:list:

www.Stagedhomes.com

www.realestatestagingassociation.com

www.realtytrac.com

October 2011

Real Estate

Transcript of October 2011

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