Post on 25-Feb-2016
description
NW Gas Market Outlook:Winds of Change
Northwest Power Conservation CouncilNatural Gas Advisory Committee
June 16, 2011
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255West Linn, OR 97068
(503) 344-6637www.nwga.org
NWGA Members:Avista Corporation
Cascade Natural Gas Co.
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
Spectra Energy Transmission
FortisBC Energy, Inc.
TransCanada’s GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline
Recent Gas Demand
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
PNW Gas Deliveries (source: US EIA, StatCan)Generation Industrial Commercial Residential
Mill
ion
Dth
Hydro NatGas Coal Nuclear Wind (32%)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2008 Generating Capability v Dispatch by Source
Capability
Dispatch
Energy Source
MW
a2008 Energy By Source
89%
48%
94%
108% 109%
Source: NPCC
Demand Forecast
Base Case Forecast by Sector
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-200
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Power Generation - High
Residential
Commercial (Sales)
Industrial (Transport & In-terruptible)
Power Generation
Three Year Forecast Comparison
700000000
750000000
800000000
850000000
900000000
950000000
1000000000
1050000000
1100000000
2008-092009-102010-11
Mill
ion
Dth -11%
Decline in Projected Industrial Use
2008
-09
2009
-10
2010
-11
2011
-12
2012
-13
2013
-14
2014
-15
2015
-16
2016
-17
2017
-18
2018
-19
2019
-20100000000
150000000
200000000
250000000
300000000
350000000
400000000
Industrial Demand
2008-092009-102010-11
Mill
ion
Dth
-27.5%
Demand Composition: 1996
Residen-tial
26%
Com-mercial
20%
Industrial51%
Generation3%
Demand Composition 2019-20
Shale Gas A Game Changer
1st Quarter 20071st Quarter 20083rd Quarter 2010
1,006
2,439
80,930
Productivity Dramatically Improved Southwest EnergyFayetteville Shale
2,104
4,503
+114%
2011
-45%
+142%
$2.8$2.6
+8%
18
33
+83%
18,360
+341%
Source: Southwestern Energy Financials
Time To Drill(Days)
Wells Per YrPer Rig
AverageLateral Length
(Feet)
30 Day Ave.Prod Rate
(Mcf/d)
Init Prod Additions
Per Rig Per Yr(Mcf/d)
Drill & Complete
Costs ($MM)
Price Affect
Jan-20
08
Apr-2
008
Jul-20
08
Oct-20
08
Jan-20
09
Apr-2
009
Jul-20
09
Oct-20
09
Jan-20
10
Apr-2
010
Jul-20
10
Oct-20
10
Jan-20
11
Apr-2
011
Jul-20
11
Oct-20
11
Jan-20
12
Apr-2
012
Jul-20
12
Oct-20
12
Jan-20
13
Apr-2
013
Jul-20
13
Oct-20
13
Jan-20
14
Apr-2
014
Jul-20
14
Oct-20
14
Jan-20
15
Apr-2
015
Jul-20
15
Oct-20
15
Jan-20
16
Apr-2
016
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
(Source: EIA Monthly NatGas Report; 5/10/2011 Short Term Energy Outlook; NYMEX)
Domestic WellheadPipeline Imports (Canada)LNG Imports
US$
per
Mill
ion
BTU
EIA Forecast
NYMEX Futures: 05/23/11
2007 WCSB Production Forecast
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
High Forecast Low Forecast Average
Bcf
/day
WCSB Production Forecast
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20207
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
TCPL LowTCPL ReferenceTCPL HighNEB Reference
TransCanada, NEB
Bcf
/day
BC Propping Up WCSB
Bcfd
2011 2015 2020 20250
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
BCAlbertaWCSB
Data Source: Navigant
Winter-long CapacityCTN: 2019-20, Expected Demand
Winter-long CapacityCTN: 2019-20, High Demand
2008 Peak Capacity I-5 Corridor
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
I-5 Total Firm Peak Day Supply/Demand BalanceLow Base High Peak LNG Underground Storage Pipeline
Year (Nov-Oct)
Mill
ion
Dth
/day
Current Peak Capacity I-5 Corridor
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
I-5 Total Firm Peak Day Supply/Demand Balance
Low Base High Pipeline Underground Storage Peak LNG
Year (Nov-Oct)
Mill
ion
Dth
/day
Capacity Projects
21
Pipelines• Southern Crossing Expansion• Palomar• Sunstone• Blue Bridge (reconfigured)• Ruby• Pacific Connector• Pacific Trail• Oregon LNGLNG Terminals
Kitimat LNG (export)Bradwood LandingOregon LNGJordan Cove LNG
Storage FacilitiesMistJackson Prairie
Oregon LNG Bradwood Landing LNG
Jordan Cove LNG
Kitimat LNG
1914 Willamette Falls Dr., #255West Linn, OR 97068
(503) 344-6637www.nwga.org
NWGA Members:Avista Corporation
Cascade Natural Gas Co.
Intermountain Gas Co.
NW Natural
Puget Sound Energy
Spectra Energy Transmission
FortisBC Energy, Inc.
TransCanada’s GTN System
Williams NW Pipeline