Post on 09-May-2015
description
Nuclear Doctrines
JuPi Security Conference 2011
Some Rights Reserved
• Copyright 2011 by Gregory Engels. Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Share Alike 3.0 License
Gregory Engels
• Pirate
• founding Co-Chairman of Pirate Party International
• Geek
• Member of the City Council of Offenbach (Germany)
Nuclear Club
Glossary
• First Strike
• Second Strike
• Nuclear Triad
• NPT (Nuclear Proliferation Treaty)
• IBM (Intercontinental ballistic missile)
• Mt (Million ton of TNT equivalent 4.184 PJ)
USA Nuclear Strategies
Forward Strategy
• Nato Document 14/1
• Tactical nuclear air strikes
• combined with conventional counterstrike
• would have radiated most of Germany east of the Rhine
recoilless rifle “Davy Crockett” on a tripod for firing the M388 atomic round
Massive Retalitation
• Nato Document 14/2
• nuclear counter of conventional strike
• Single Integrated Operation Plan SIOP-62
• 3423 single targets in 1960
Flexible Response
• NATO Document 143/3
• Triade-Strategy combines conventional, nuclear tactical and nuclear strategical forces
• 1980‘s SIOP-5D Plan had 40000 possible targets
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
• Overkill-Capacity
• Nash Equilibrium
• “Whoever fires first, die second”
• since 1961 - it is questionable, if it still persists
Countervailing Strategy
• Presidential Directive 59
• First kill political leaders, then bomb military targets
• Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI aka Star Wars) 1983
Global Strike
• Contingency Plan 8022 (CONPLAN 8022)
• since 2002
• Use of ballistic missiles with conventional warheads
• Development of new “virtual” weapons
• Space and Cyberspace forces
Prompt Global Strike
• Since 2006
• the ability to deliver a precision conventional weapon strike anywhere in the world within one hour
Russia Nuclear Strategies
Early Strategies
• under Khrushchev (1955) development of strategy to “raze to the ground” the countries that are aggressive towards USSR
Brezhnev
• since 1965 a “double strategy”
• the nuclear war is not to be lead, unless imposed by the NATO or USA
• If the nuclear war is necessary, it must be fought, even with a first strike, if the situation requires it
“Dead Hand”
• 1974 Directive № 695-227 Система «Периметр»
• “Doomsday-Device” to ensure a decentralized counterstrike even in the case of failing communication
“Perimeter” Command Rocket 15А11
Current Doctrine
• Since 2001
• Nuclear First Strike as a counterstrike to weapons of mass destruction or to conventional warfare in the case of a threat to the existence of the Russian State
No First Use Policy• No First Use:
• India
• China (*)
• North Korea
• UdSSR
• (*) China would strike first against USA in case USA would enter the Taiwan conflict
• No “No First Use”
• USA
• Russia
• UK
• Pakistan
• Israel
• France
Pakistan
• First Strike towards India also in the case of conventional warfare
• No Nuclear Triad
• First tests 1998, estimated 300 nukes
• tactical weapons up to 2500 km (4000 km are in development)
• Not a member of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
India
• Also not a member of Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
• No First Use Policy, deterrence only
• First test 1974 (Smiling Buddha) - a “peaceful nuclear explosion”
• in the process of building nuclear triad
• 70 - 100 nukes (100% growth since 2005)
North Korea
• first test 2006
• estimated 6-8 warheads maximum 4000 km range (BM25 Musudan)
• according to Korean mass-media, North Korea have the nukes only for deterrence
Israel
• Not an official member of the nuclear club
• first test unknown, possible 1974 in a joint effort with South Africa
• allegedly 75-400 warheads in stock with maximum range of 10000 km with 1t load (Jericho III)
China
• full nuclear triad
• first test 1964, last test 1996
• current stockpile ~400 warheads with maximum range of 12.000 to 15.000 km
• "China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones at any time or under any circumstances."
United Kingdom
• First test 1952, last test 1991
• current stockpile 225 warheads. Maximum range 13.000 km
• special relationship between UK and US
France
• First test 1960, last test 1995
• current stockpile estimated at 300 warheads, maximum range c.a. 10000 km
• 2006 Chirac noted that France would be willing to use nuclear weapons against a state attacking France by terrorist means
Russia
• First test 1949, last test 1990 (715 total)
• current stockpile 12000 warheads, up to 11000 km range, up to 50Mt
USA
• first test 1945, last test 1992 (1054 total)
• current stockpile 5133 warheads, maximum range 13000 km
Contact
Gregory.Engels [௹] piratenpartei-hessen.de
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