Post on 20-Dec-2015
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
1
Student Demographic Student Demographic Projections, Public Projections, Public
Policy Questions and the Policy Questions and the Impact on Higher Impact on Higher
EducationEducationKnowing who is (and is not) knocking at the Knowing who is (and is not) knocking at the college doorcollege door
Becky Brodigan NEAIR Annual MeetingMiddlebury College November, 2006
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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“These findings can be very helpful in helping shape public policy. Many folks may not like the implications of these findings, but they are the facts, and we ignore them at our peril.”
David Longenecker, Executive Director, WICHE, The Chronicle of Higher Education 2/24/2006
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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IS this much ado about nothing or do we ignore at our peril? You decide Demographic changes are one
piece of a complex puzzle
Income and gender are two others that we will talk about that haven’t received much attention or analysis
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Things to think about today… What is the environment within which we
operate? What is happening in our state and region? Where do our students come from (at our
institutions)? Where do students from our state go? Where do non-residents come from to our
schools? Will these changes impact career colleges,
community colleges, state colleges, public flagships and different varieties of privates differently?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Things to think about today…Context… What’s happening to ALL of
education? NCLB (N$LB) –
states under attack, threats to pull back federal funding
Pressure to allow students to transfer (what about those who can’t – are they left behind)
Effects spilling over into higher education policy
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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The Effects of Accountability Movements and Efforts like NCLB Testing at the federal and
collegiate level (CLA)? New definitions of “college
material?” During the next two decades will
access and the number of students going to college expand or will opportunities contract?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Minority School Enrollments
36% to 50%
21% to 35%
10% to 20%
More than 50%
Less than 10%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Some sobering facts about schools Public secondary education is resegregating at accelerating rates, despite the growing minority student population across the country.
Nationwide 70% of Black students attend
minority majority schools, White students are the most
segregated group, they typically attend schools where less than 20 percent of students are from other racial and ethnic groups.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Some sobering facts about schools Minority schools are more highly correlated with high poverty schools; tend to have lower parental
participation; maintain fewer resources; and have less experienced
classroom teachers with higher turnover than white schools.
Source: André Bell, MRO, The College Board
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Demographic changes
First talked about in the late 70’s -- higher education ignored
Recently, College Board has been the leading voice in the discussion on the national level http://www.collegeboard.com/highered/de/
index.html
Moody’s recently published a paper
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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What will we look at? High School Graduation
Projections through 2018 by race by region
College Going Rates by Race, Gender and SES
Current Enrollment Patterns by State
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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What will we look at? Enrollment Patterns by
Race and Gender Migration Data Public Policy Issues –
recent research Your part -- What do we
think this all means?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Policy Related Implications for Higher Education and State Policy Makers What can change these projections?
Are there likely to be improvements or decreases in graduation rates by any groups?
In the Northeast, maintaining market share will lead to declines in enrollment for individual institutions. Will enrollment shift sectors? How will legislatures respond to theses shifts?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Policy Related Implications for Higher Education and State Policy Makers What are the implications for tax
revenues and per capita income if the percent of college graduates decreases?
Will new populations of students graduate in the same patterns as their predecessors? (Majors, time to degree, students and sports?)
Do our faculty and staff reflect mirror the new demographics? How will that affect our ability to recruit and retain students?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Challenges of the Perfect Demographic Storm How can we reduce barriers to college
access for low-income and minority students? Improve K-12 preparation Admission and financial aid policies and processes Improve Retention
If we succeed, how will we find adequate funding (Federal, State, Institutional) to support increasing financial need?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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WICHE Projections
Public and Non-public high school graduation data since 1960
Actual from 87-88 through 01-02 Projections from 01-02 to 2017-18 Included details descriptions and
formulas of the ‘aging’ process as well as detailed notes by state
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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WICHE Data Historical and projection tables for public schools with total births,
public enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;
Historical and projection tables for each racial/ethnic group with births, public enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;
Historical and projection tables for nonpublic schools in each state with total births, nonpublic enrollments by grade, and high school graduates, including progression ratios;
Detailed notes for each state explaining the sources of the historical data that underlie the projections and the methods used to generate the projections.
Historical and projection tables for income brackets in each state with public enrollments by grade and high school graduates, including progression ratios.
Projections extend to the year 2017-18. Birth data are from the National Center for Health Statistics’ Monthly Vital Statistics reports providing final birth data for each year. Enrollment and graduate data are collected primarily from the state education agencies. When state data were incomplete, other sources were used and are detailed in the notes for each state.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Number of Public High School Graduates Peaks and Valleys …
2,000,0002,100,0002,200,0002,300,0002,400,0002,500,0002,600,0002,700,0002,800,0002,900,0003,000,000
Source: WICHE/The College Board
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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College 'bubble' is about to burst (Philadelphia Inquirer – 7/31/2006) Administrators at local private institutions
as diverse as Chestnut Hill College, Drexel University, St. Joseph's University, and two-year Harcum College in Bryn Mawr say they already are preparing for the coming shortage. In an effort to maintain the dramatic enrollment gains they've made, many are extending their recruiting efforts to faster-growing states, as well as adopting new academic programs to appeal to a wider pool of students.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at colleges and universities: 1947 to 2004 (Census Bureau)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1947
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
Note: Enrollment is in thousands
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Projections of HS Graduates
in the United States
1%6%
14% 15%
65%
1%
8%13%
22%
56%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Native American Asian American Black Hispanic White
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Projections of HS Graduates
United States: 2006-07 to 2017-18
3,454
74,586
-10,471
3,460
-97,528
228,994
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Transition and Completion Measures
from High School to College75%
64%
31%
57%49%
55%
23%
38%
53% 52%
27%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Graduate from HighSchool on Time (2001)
Recent High School Graduates that GoDirectly to College
(2001)
Three-Year GraduationRates of Associates
Students (2002)
Six-Year GraduationRates of Bachelor's
Students (2002)
White African American Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos 400 person sample 200 who had never attended college
and 200 who had attended college Interviews were in English and/or
Spanish Sample representative of Latinos in US
except over 75% were HS graduates Median income was $25,000 to $35,000 83% US born 72% had at least one foreign born
parent
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos 98% said it was important to have a
college education 38% did not feel the benefits
outweighed the costs Not being able to work and incurring
debt were opportunity costs associated with attending college
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos Over 50% erroneously thought you had to
be a US citizen to apply for financial aid Few respondents could accurately
estimate the cost of attending either UC or Cal State Univ – most overestimated the cost
There is a lack for familiarity with Cal Grants and federal grants
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Tomás Rivera Study18-24 year old California Latinos Almost 25% thought loan availability
was contingent on grades 30% would use a commercial bank
as the source of their loan (Aspire)
“Perceptions of College Financial Aid Among California Latino Youth”
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Implications
Explaining the benefits of higher education will continue to be a challenge, especially when recruiting students with no family history
Opportunity costs are an impediment to many families
Cost perceptions will continue to hamper colleges ability to recruit
Need to better explain financial aid eligibility
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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White, Non-Hispanic Degree Attainment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Associates Bachelors Masters PhD
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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PhD’s Awarded by Race
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander
AmericanIndian/ Alaskan Native
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Master’s Degrees Awarded by Race
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander
AmericanIndian/ Alaskan Native
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded by Race
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander
AmericanIndian/ Alaskan Native
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Associate’s Degrees Awarded by Race
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander
AmericanIndian/ Alaskan Native
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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PhD’s Awarded by Race
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic Asian or PacificIslander
AmericanIndian/ Alaskan
Native
Nonresidentalien
1981 1985 1990 1995 2003
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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College Continuation Rates
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2004White Black Hispanic
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Fall 2005 Freshmen Enrollment by Race – Four-Year Colleges (CIRP)14%
11%
7%
11%
6%5%
9%
7%
14%
7%
9%
14%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Black Latino Asian American
Public 4 year Private 4 year Public Univ Private Univ
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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NE HS Graduates: Changes in actual numbers from 2006
to 20184,407
575
5,800
492
-10,829
-17,842(18,000)
(15,000)
(12,000)
(9,000)
(6,000)
(3,000)
0
3,000
6,000
White AsianAmerican
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic NativeAmerican
Overall
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Northeast HS Graduates: Changes in actual numbers from 2006-07 to 2017-18
521
23,088
-10,026
11,852
-68,527
-7,825
(75,000)
(50,000)
(25,000)
0
25,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Changes in HS Graduates in the Northeast: 2006-07 to 2017-2018
6%
15%9%
71%
10%14% 12%
63%
.3% .4%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White
20072018
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in New England
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000110,000120,000
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Native American Asian American African American Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic
111,000 97,000
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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SAT Takers by Race/Ethnicity
1% 5% 5%
86%
4%1%10% 13%
4%
73%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Hispanic White Other
New England US
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Participation by Low-income All New England states above the national average of 25%
Lowest rates are in the south and west
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in Massachusetts
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Native American Asian American African American Hispanic White
40,09347,000
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Projections of HS Graduates in Vermont: 2006-07 to 2017-18
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-
12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
Students of Color White Private Total
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in NH: 2006-07 to 2017-18
32
661
226
597
-1984
-468
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White Total
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in Massachusetts:
2006-07 to 2017-18271
1,814
-443
906
-6,885(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2,000
4,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in Connecticut
4%
11% 10%
75%
8%12%
15%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Asian American African American Hispanic White
2006-07 2017-18
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in NJ: 2006-07 to 2017-18
-136
9,165
-1,460
6,724
-7,664
6,629
(10,000)(8,000)(6,000)(4,000)(2,000)
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White Total
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in Maryland: 2006-07 to 2017-18
161
2,2771,254
5,564
-6,132
983
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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HS Graduates in Pennsylvania:
2006-07 to 2017-18136
1,837
-1,168
2,498
-16,242
-2,589
(20,000)
(16,000)
(12,000)
(8,000)
(4,000)
0
4,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Pennsylvania High School Graduates
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Native American Asian American Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
2006-07 2011-12 2017-18
+1,837
+2,498
-1,168
+136
White -16,242
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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New York High School Graduates
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Native American Asian American Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic
2006-07 2011-12 2017-18
+7,235+489
-4,200
+150
White -17,852
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Changes in HS Graduates in New York
0%
8%15% 12%
65%
1%
14% 13% 14%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Black, Non-Hispanic
Hispanic White
2006-07 2017-2018
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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College Continuation Rates in the Northeast
68% 63% 63% 61% 59% 59%55%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
New
York
Massach
usett
s
New
Jerse
y
Conn
ectic
ut
Penn
sylva
nia
Maryla
nd
New
Ham
pshire
Verm
ont
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in NY
NY, 81.8%
CA, 1.1%Inter, 1.5%
CT, 1.5%Mass, 1.6%
PA, 1.7%
NJ, 3.6%
All Other, 7.2%
Texas, 0.4%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Pennsylvania
PA, 77.8%
CA, 0.5%Mass, 0.7%
Ohio, 1.6%
Inter, 1.1%
NY, 3.6%
NJ, 6.6%
TX, 0.2%All other, 7.8%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Maryland
MD, 79.0%
VA, 1.3%DC, 1.4%
INTER, 1.8%NY, 2.5%
PA, 3.1%
NJ, 3.1% CA, 0.7%
TX, 0.4%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in New Jersey
NJ, 92.1%
All other, 2.6%
TX, 0.1%
CA, 0.3%
INTER, 1.0%PA, 1.1%
NY, 2.8%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Connecticut
CT, 63.9%
MD, 0.8% ME, 0.8%
TX, 0.5%
All other, 5.3%
PA, 1.4%
Inter, 1.4%CA, 1.6%
NJ, 5.3%
MA, 7.2%
NY, 10.4%
RI, 1.4% NH, 1.0%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in New Hampshire
NH, 53.3%
All other, 9.7%
NJ, 1.8%
VT, 2.9%NY, 3.6%
Maine, 4.2%
CT, 5.3%
MA, 17.9%
CA, 0.9%TX, 0.4%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Massachusetts
MA, 62.3%
All other, 9.7%
PA, 1.5%VT, 0.7%
CA, 2.3%NH, 2.6%
Inter, 2.8%
NJ, 3.3%
CT, 4.7%
NY, 6.6%
RI, 1.6%
ME, 1.5%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Enrollment at Colleges in Vermont
VT, 33.0%
TX, 0.3%
All other, 11.4%ME, 4.4%
NJ, 4.7%
NH, 6.7%
CT, 7.6%
NY, 11.6%
MA, 16.0%
PA, 2.7%
CA, 1.6%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Projections of HS Graduates in the West
-67
19,344
-3,694
-49,615
50,157
-3,760
46,397
79,952
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic White Public Private Total
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
64
College Continuation Rates in the West48% 47% 46% 44% 43%
39%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
65
Emigration of College Students
18%8%
11%11%
18%32%
37%42%42%
46%48%
57%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
US
California
Arizona
Texas
NY
Massachusetts
MD
Rhode Island
Maine
NJ
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Vermont
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
66
Percent of Freshmen from Out-of-State
20%8%8%
9%
25%25%
34%39%
40%51%
67%70%
25%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
US
Texas
California
NJ
Arizona
NY
MD
Maine
Connecticut
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Vermont
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Projections of HS Graduates
in the South
4,340
24,6358,619
128,372
-25,291
12,773
(40,000)
(20,000)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
AfricanAmerican
Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
68
College Continuation Rates in the South
64%61%
55% 55% 54% 52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Georgia Alabama Nevada Louisiana Florida Texas
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
69
Don’t mess with Texas! Where do their HS Graduates go to College?
Texas, 92.1%
Plains, 0.7%
MidEast, 0.6%
Rocky, 0.6%Great Lakes, 0.6%
Farwest, 0.6%
NE, 0.4%
Rest of Southwest,
1.9%
Southeast, 2.6%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
70
Projections of HS Graduates in the Midwest: 2006-07 to
2017-2018
456
14,223
-2,180
38,242
-56,083
-2,675
(60,000)
(50,000)
(40,000)
(30,000)
(20,000)
(10,000)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
NativeAmerican
Asian American AfricanAmerican
Hispanic White Private
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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What about gender issues?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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College going rates: Where are the boys? Males outnumber female through
age 30 Males account for less than 50% of
high school graduates Males account for 47% of college
freshmen Continuation rates vary by gender
– men around 59% and women 72%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
73
SAT Takers by Gender
45% 46%
54% 54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
US New England
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
74
College continuation rates
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
MalesFemales
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
75
College Continuation Rates
by Gender and Race59% 60%
66%64%
76%
66%
46%
74%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White Black Asian American Latino
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
76
Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender by Institution Type
51% 48%44% 43% 41%
38%
52%56% 57% 59%
62%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
VS PrivateUniversities
VS PublicUniv.
PublicColleges
PrivateColleges
Black Colleges Catholic
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
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Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender and Region
45% 47%44% 45%
53%56% 55%55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Eastern Midwestern Southern Western
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
78
Fall 2005 Freshmen by Gender by Income
9%
14%
17%
12%
15%17% 17%
15%
18%
14% 15% 16%
12%11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Less than20
20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 75 75 to 100 100 to 150 150 andabove
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
79
Fall 2005 Freshmen Average HS Grades by
Gender
19%21% 21%
26%
21%
27%
39%
26%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
A or A+ A- B+ B or lower
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
80
NE Enrollment Patterns: Full-Time
45% 44% 45% 45% 46% 48% 45% 45%
55% 56% 55% 55% 54% 52% 55% 55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Conn
ectic
ut
Main
eMass
NH RI
Verm
ont
Total
Total
US
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
81
NE Enrollment Patterns: Part-Time
62%68%
62% 63% 63% 66% 63%59%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Conn
ectic
ut
Main
eMass
NH RI
Verm
ont
Total
Total
US
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
82
Enrollment at Ivy League
58%51% 50% 52%
46%44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Intern
ation
al
African
American
Native
American
Asian A
merican
Hispan
icWhit
e
Men Women
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83
Doctoral (minus technical
universities) 62%
56% 52%57%
52%44%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Intern
ation
al
African
American
Native
American
Asian A
merican
Hispan
icWhit
e
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
84
Enrollment at Private Liberal Arts Colleges56% 59% 59%
65%61%
57% 58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Intern
ation
al
African
American
Native
American
Asian A
merican
Hispan
icWhit
eTota
l
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
85
Enrollment at Public Research Universities
45%
62%58%
51%57%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Intern
ation
al
African
American
Native
American
Asian A
merican
Hispan
icWhit
e
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
86
Public Master’s Universities
52%
63% 61%54%
60% 57% 58%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%
Intern
ation
al
Africa
n Ameri
can
Native
Ameri
can
Asian
American
Hispan
icWhit
eTota
l
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
87
Public Liberal Arts Colleges
56% 54%60% 60% 65%
55% 56%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%
Intern
ation
al
Africa
n Ameri
can
Native
Ameri
can
Asian
American
Hispan
icWhit
eTota
l
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
88
Public General Baccalaureate/Associates
57%64% 63%
55%62%
57% 59%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%
Intern
ation
al
Africa
n Ameri
can
Native
Ameri
can
Asian
American
Hispan
icWhit
eTota
l
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
89
Public Two-Year Colleges
56%65% 62%
55% 58% 58% 58%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%65%
Intern
ation
al
Africa
n Ameri
can
Native
Ameri
can
Asian
American
Hispan
icWhit
eTota
l
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
90
Race by Type of Private College
16%
2%
12%
63%
10%4% 4%
73%
10%
3%
12%
64%
8% 10%7%
60%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
75%
African American Asian American Hispanic White
Bachelors/Associates Liberal Arts Masters Universities
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
91
Race by Type of Public College
17%
3%
15%
58%
15%
3%
15%
60%
14%
6%11%
66%
9% 8% 8%
68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
African American Asian American Hispanic White
Bachelors/ Associates Public LA Public Masters Research
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
92
For Profit Colleges
42%
32%38%
45%39% 41%
58%
68%62%
55%61% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
International AfricanAmerican
NativeAmerican
AsianAmerican
Hispanic White
Men Women
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
93
For Profit Colleges
Caucasian39%
African American
19%
Hispanic17%
Unknown16%
Asian American
4%
International 4%
Native American
1%
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
94
Percent of Total Undergraduate State AidNot Based on Need, 1982 to 2002
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
95
Four-Year College &University Enrollment Rates of 1992 HS Graduates by Family Income and Math Test Scores
15%
33%
68%
14%
37%
69%
21%
47%
78%
27%
59%
84%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Lowest Third Middle Third Top Third
Lowest IncomeSecond QuartileThird QuartileHighest Income
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
96
College Entrance within One-Year of High School Graduation64%
55%52%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White African American Hispanic MaximumDifference
1972 1980 2001
Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, Pg 37.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
97
College Entrance within 2.5 years of graduation by SES
78%
43%
27%
51%
88%
63%
36%
52%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Top quartile 25th to 75th Bottom quarter MaximumDifference
1972 1992
Source: Higher Education and the Color Line, pg. 37.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
98
Levels of Education for the High School Class of 1992
( by 2000)51%
38%
6%
19%
53%
16%20%
51%
20%17%
33% 35%
6%
35%41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
No College Some College BA
Native American Hispanic African American Caucasian Asian American
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
99
Implications for the States – Changes in Personal per
Capita Income70%
37%
52% 49%
30%
-4% -5% -5% -3%-11%-20%
-10%0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California
1980 to 2000 2000 to 2020
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
100
Implications for the States – Personal per Capita Income
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Massachusetts Texas New York Colorado California
2000 2020
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
101
Percent Changes in Educational Attainment, 2000-2020 Projections:(25-64 Year-Olds)
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
102
Summary HS graduation projections
in NE going down over all Increases in groups with lower
college continuation rates Increasing in states that do not
export students Will affirmative actions
changes/legal cases stifle enrollment by students of color in states like California and Texas?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
103
Summary Male/Female ratios not likely
to improve Colleges in NE going to have
to work harder just to maintain market share – expand marketing efforts and develop new strategies
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
104
Implications More competition for fewer students in the
North East More expense to attempt to recruit
students from outside the region Will college going rates increase for
different ethnic groups? Are we ready? Will the pressure to maintain/increase
market share lead to a growth in discounting and increase in state and institutional merit aid awards?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
105
Demographic Changes Likely to Widen the Access Gap
Next wave of high school graduates will look much different than today
Number of high school graduates increasing Till 2009, falls to 2004 levels in 2014, then
growth will surpass 2008 levels Increases in underrepresented minorities Increases in some areas of country but not
others Rising tuition and fees Federal and State aid
patterns make colleges appear unaffordable Income differences by race/ethnicity will
challenge access for Blacks/Hispanics
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
106
Growing interest in State Data Bases May Also Affect Enrollment Managers Easier to track institutional
outcomes. Given current linear simplistic
thinking of policy makers, this could disadvantage schools that are less selective.
May see more nuanced definitions of persistence and continuing that may help institutions that attract large numbers of mobile students
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
107
Summing Up: Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Continued higher education participation rate
increases across all demographic groups Heightened competition for students in
demographically vibrant states, as colleges & universities seek to expand their traditional markets
Potential increases in financial aid/tuition discounting above the rate of tuition growth, especially in demographically challenged states
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
108
Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Enrollment/Demand Trends Many institutions in states with
difficult demographic environments reaching out beyond their core markets to recruit additional out of state students. (approximately 80% of students enroll in their home state)
Building a presence in a new market may take several years to effectively develop and translate into real revenue growth from stronger out-of-state enrollment
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
109
Moody’s 2006 Higher Ed Outlook Enrollment/Demand Trends Further demand for graduate and
professional programs, and education adult programs, although this is a highly competitive and often cyclical market and necessitates careful management
The community colleges may experience the most rapid growth, as first generation college attendees enroll, leading to institutions to focus more on transfer populations
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
110
Broad Institutional Enrollment Management Considerations Does your staff (the faculty and administrators)
resemble in the composition of future student body?
Will your strategy be to target these new groups of students or will you attempt to adapt to changes as they occur?
What are the financial resources (including financial aid) necessary to meet the institution’s enrollment goals?
If students come in with weaker preparation, what will be your response?
What will be the impact on retention and graduation?
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
111
Specific Implications for Enrollment Managers? It Depends Institutional type and sector
Public or private Two year or four year Selective or less selective
Geographical location Institutional draw (market
position)
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
112
More….. Direction of campus aid policies
hard to discern For the moment, growing competition
around merit aid Growing public attention on negative
effects of merit aid Emerging focus on need based aid There is a finite amount of money
campuses can spend on aid
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
113
Additional Implications for Enrollment Managers• Some institutions will enroll student bodies
that are less academically prepared than current classes.
• Some institutions will see shrinking enrollments because of declines in the number of high school graduates in their states or regions.
• Some institutions may need to expand or alter their recruitment strategies and redefine the target populations they seek to attract and enroll.
• The racial and ethnic composition of students on campus may be markedly different from current classes.
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
114
Emerging Era of the Community College?• Demographic shifts pose potential
problems – they have more in common characteristics of students attending 2 year colleges
• Students starting in 2 year colleges may already have a predisposition for publics
• Public policy trends could result in longer term student shifts toward community colleges which could result in more students at publics
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
115
How do we use this data? Enrollment projections modeling
Trends in applications by state and region Average market share over recent years Projections of applicants by state and
racial/ethnic group Enrollment management research
opportunities Strategies for increasing market share Strategies for expanding recruiting areas Communications/publications strategies –
publish in difference languages (especially for parents), hire multi-lingual recruiters
Consider new financial aid/financing strategies
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
116
What do these colleges have in common? Bradford College Westbrook College Ricker College Trinity College Notre Dame
No longer exist or exist under a different name
November 2006 NEAIR -- The Changing Demographics of Higher Education
117
ReferencesPublications Postsecondary Opportunity July 2004, October 2004, November 2004 and December 2004 Trends in Educational Equity of Girls and Women, NCES. College Board Data and Reporting Products, Integrated State Summary Report New England
- All Schools 2004 College-Bound Seniors: A Profile of SAT Program Test Takers Enrollment in Postsecondary Education Institutions, Fall 2002 and Financial Statistics,
Fiscal Year 2002 The Condition of Education, 2004: National Center for Education Statistics Education Pays 2004 and 2005: The College Board Gender Equity in Higher Education: Are Male Students at a Disadvantage? American
Council on Education Center for Policy Analysis, 2000 and updated tables and figures, August 2003.
Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, December 2003.
The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2004, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA, December 2004.
Books Mismatch: The Growing Gulf Between Men and Women, Andrew Hacker, Scribner, 2003. Raising Cain: Protecting the Emotional Life of Boys, Dan Kindlon and Michael Thompson,
Ballantyne, 2000. Conditions of Access: Higher Education for Lower Income Students, Donald Heller, Editor,
Praeger/ACE, 2002. America’s Untapped Resource: Low Income Students in Higher Education, Richard D,
Kahlenberg, Editor, The Century Foundation, 2004. The Source of the River: The Social Origins of Freshmen at America's Selective Colleges and
Universities; Douglas s. Massey, Camille Z. Charles, Garvey F. Lundy, Mary J. Fischer, Princeton University Press, 2003.
Higher Education and the Color Line: College Access, Racial Equity and Social Change. Edited by Gary Orfield, Patricia Marin and Catherine L. Horn, Harvard Education Press, 2005.