Post on 24-Jan-2015
description
Nonferrous Scrap Metal Market Trends
Nonferrous Division Executive Committee ISRI 2013 Fall Committee and Board Meetings
San Francisco, CAOctober 23, 2013
YTD Change in NF Metal Prices
Tin Zinc Lead Copper Aluminum Nickel-17.0%
-12.0%
-7.0%
-2.0%
3.0%
8.0%
0.1%
-4.9%-5.9%
-8.3%-9.2%
-14.1%
Year-to-Date Change in LME Official 3-Mo. Nonferrous Metal Asking Prices Dec 31, 2012 - October 22, 2013
Cu Scrap Spreads Have Narrowed...
YTD Change in Domestic Cu Scrap Usage
1H Domestic US Copper Consumption:
- 2013: 380,000 mt- 2012: 369,000 mt% CHG: 3%
First Half 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports
% Change in Volume of YTD U.S. Copper Scrap Exports:
- Total: -7%- China: -9%- RoW: -1%
YTD 2013 U.S. Copper Scrap Exports in $
First Half 2013 U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports
% CHG in Volume of YTD U.S. Aluminum Scrap Exports:
- Total: -13%- China:-13%- RoW: -13%
YTD Change in Domestic Al Scrap Usage
Secondary Smelters
Independent Mill Fabricators
Foundries Other Consumers0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001110
843
484
1120
849
604
Estimated Metallic Domestic Recovery from Purchased New and Old Aluminum Scrap, Jan-Jul 2012 vs Jan-Jul 2013
(thousand metrics tons)Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Jan-Jul 2012 Jan-Jul 2013
Year-to-Date NF Scrap Metal Exports
Commodity JUL ‘13 JUN ‘13 MAY ‘13 JAN-JUL '13
JAN-JUL '12
% CHG
Copper Scrap 92,707 95,643 96,531 651,892 697,575 -7%
Aluminum Scrap
155,505 152,963 157,177 1,219,064 1,063,822 -13%
Nickel Scrap 2,496 2,207 2,162 14,531 15,908 -9%
Lead Scrap 1,742 3,707 3,101 20,010 15,004 33%
Zinc Scrap 5,302 7,158 7,072 47,153 51,013 -8%
Exchange Rates
Jan-
08
Apr-0
8
Jul-0
8
Oct-0
8
Jan-
09
Apr-0
9
Jul-0
9
Oct-0
9
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
Oct-1
0
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Jul-1
1
Oct-1
1
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
240,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
110,000,000
120,000,000
130,000,000
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
Cu Scrap Exports (kg) US Dollar Index
US Dollar and Copper Scrap Exports are Negatively Correlated (-.6%)
Outlook
Uncertainty remains the recurring theme with unsettled questions on:
• Global supply surpluses
• Domestic scrap inventories
• U.S. Budget, debt ceiling, regulatory challenges
• LME rules changes and investment demand
• Timing of Fed tapering and exchange rate volatility
• Last but not least, Chinese demand and Euro zone recovery
World Bank Price Forecasts
Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc
$/mt $/mt ¢/kg $/mt ¢/kg ¢/kg
2013 1,800.00 7,100.00 210 14,000 2,200.00 190
2014 1,850.00 7,050.00 212 15,000 2,220.00 215
2015 1,900.00 7,000.00 215 16,000 2,250.00 220
Updated October 2013.