NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS

Presidential vs Congressional Campaigns

• More voters• More competitive• Less incumbent

advantage

• Lower turnout in midterm elections

• Take more credit for individual projects

• Able to distance themselves from DC

• Franking privileges• Coattail effect has

declined

RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

Getting Mentioned

• Off the record to reporters

• Make speeches

• Fame

• Associated with major piece of legislation

• Governor

Money

• Individuals

• Political Action Committees

Organization

• Fund raisers

• Lawyers

• Accountants

• Pollsters

• Volunteers

• Position papers

Competing for Delegates

• Caucus:• Neighborhoodcounty—congressional

districtstate convention—national convention

• Primary• McGovern-Fraser Commission• Superdelegates• Frontloading

Evaluation of Primary and Caucus

• Disproportionate attention to early caucuses and primaries (Iowa and New Hampshire)

• Difficult to find time to run

• Money

• Low participation:5% of registered voters in caucuses (except

Iowa) and 20 in primaryToo much power to media

Strategy and Themes

• Tone: Positive or negative

• Theme: trust, change, experience

• Timing: heavy or light campaigning

• Targets: Which voters will change their minds?

Primaries and General Election

• Extreme in primary

• Center in general

• Clothespin Vote: lesser of two evils

Campaign Issues

• Position Issues: Two opposing views Social Security, abortion, death penalty Can lead to party realignment• Valence Issues: Universal issues Strong economy Low crime Patriotism

Federal Election Campaign Act (passed in 1971, amended in

1974)

1. Federal Election Commission

• Oversee elections to ensure the parties and candidates are complying with election rules

2. Presidential Election Campaign Fund

• $3 voluntary check off box on income tax (11% of taxpayers)

3. Partial Public Financing for Presidential Primaries

• Presidential candidates who raise $5,000 on their own in at least 20 states can get individual contributions of up to $250 matched by the government (matching funds) If they accept federal support, they agree to limit campaign expenditures

• Bush and Kerry declined matching funds

• Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government

4. General Election• Public financing for major party candidates

in general election

• Major party candidates receive fixed amount of money ($75m in 2004)

• Kerry and Bush accepted this money

5. Full Disclosure

• File with FEC

• List contributors

• Detail how money was spent

6. Limited Contributions

• Individual contributions to presidential and congressional candidates: $2,000 each (as of 2004) and indexed to inflation ($2,300 in the 2008 presidential election.

• Originally $1,000 but changed by McCain-Feingold Act

Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• PACs:• One PAC per corporation, union, or

association• Register 6 months in advance• At least 50 contributors• Give to at least five candidates• No more than $5,000 per candidate per

election• No more than $15,000 per year to national

party

Loopholes

• Soft money:Funds NOT for specific candidatesGet-out-the-voteVoter registration campaigns

• Bundling: combining contributions to be given at once (makes more of an impact)

Effect of Reforms

• Growth of PACs (4,217 in 2006): contributed $288.6 m in 2004 House and Senate elections

• Party power has weakened• Rich candidates can avoid rules• Favors ideological candidates• Favors incumbents: they are more well

known, so they can get the individual contribution

• Must enter race early because of the need to raise money

Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold Act)• Banned soft money; national parties can

only receive hard money (individual contributions or PAC contributions)

• Limit on individual contributions raised from $1,000 to $2,000 per candidate per election (indexed to inflation)

Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002

• Independent expenditures by corporations, labor unions, trade associations and (under certain circumstances) nonprofits are sharply restricted:

• Barred groups from running issue ads within 60 days of a general election (or 30 days before a primary) if they refer to a federal candidate and are not funded through a PAC (i.e., regulated funds)

Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002

• 527 Groups are not subject to contribution restrictions as long as political messages did not make explicit endorsements of candidates by using phrases, such as vote for, or vote against

• $424 million in 2004 (52 gave over $1 million; 213 gave over $100,000)

Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission (2010)

• 5 to 4 decision

• Court held as unconstitutional a key provision of the McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Finance Act that places limits on how much corporations and unions can spend for or against political candidates toward the end of the campaign.

• 5: Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Alito

• 4 (dissenting): Stevens, Ginsberg, Breyer, Sotomayor.

Buckley v. Valeo (1976)

• Political contributions are “speech” within the meaning of the 1st Amendment.

• Individual persons can spend as much as they like to express their views on issues and/or candidates.

• Contribution limits directly to campaigns prior to an election are constitutional because the government has an interest in making sure there is no appearance of a “quid pro quo” arrangement through campaign donations.

Citizens United (Nonprofit corporation)

• Produced a video “Hillary” during Clinton’s campaign in 2008

Should corporations have the same 1st Amendment rights as individuals?

• Yes: Corporations are associations of individuals and are entitled to the same 1st Amendment rights as individuals.

• Any legislation that affects the political process should be “suspect”.

• No: The side with more money should not dominate the political process by being able to out-contribute the opponents (a level playing field)

• 1st Amendment rights are for “real” persons, not “artificial” persons created the by State.

VOTING FACTORS

Incumbency

• In good economic times, party holding White House normally does well; in poor times it does badly (pocketbook vote)

• Many who are doing well will vote against incumbent if country is not doing well because of friends or customers not doing well

Character

• Honesty and reliability

• Opinion on crime, abortion, and school prayer

• Acting presidential (speaking well, dignified, compassionate, authoritative, reasonable, likable)

Money

• Does not make a difference since each candidate gets same amount (If both candidates accept public funding.)

• Makes a difference in Congressional races:• High-spending incumbents do better than

low-spending incumbents• Average spending has increased over time

(incumbent to challenger ratio: 2.47)

Non-factors

• VP nominee• Political reporting• Religion• Abortion: might affect who gets nomination• New voting groups: “angry white males did

not elect Republican Congress in 1994 and soccer moms did not elect Bill Clinton in 1996”

Party Identification

• More Democrats than Republicans, but Democrats lost 7 of 12 presidential elections since 1968:

• Democrats less loyal (80% of Republicans vote party line, but 1/3 of Democrats voted for Nixon and 26% for Reagan)

• Republican attract a majority of independents, who are usually younger whites

• Higher percentage of Republicans vote

Issues• Prospective/Policy voting:

• Voter learn about the issues

• Select best candidate

• Retrospective voting:

• If voters look at how things have gone in the past and they like it, they will vote for candidate who will continue those policies (and vice-versa)

• Elections are decided by this factor

Campaign

• Revive party loyalties

• Voters see how candidates handle pressure

• Judge character and core values

Democratic Coalition

• African-Americans (most loyal)• Mexican-Americans• Puerto Ricans• Jewish People (most loyal)• Lost strong support of : Catholics Southerners Union Members

Republican Coalition

• Business people (most loyal)

• Farmers (volatile)

• Professionals

• Poor people (most are elderly and retired; low-income blacks vote Democrat, but less than 25% of Democratic vote)

Party Realignment

• “sharp lasting shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties

• “new issue of utmost importance to the voters cuts across existing party divisions and replaces old issues that were formerly the basis of of party identification”

• Five major shifts in American history

1800 Elections

• Jeffersonian Republicans defeated the Federalists

1828 Elections

• Jacksonian Democrats win

1860

• Slavery issue

• Whigs (Constitutional Union Party) silent and fall

• Democratic Party split

• Northern part waffling

• Southern party in favor of slavery

• Republicans win with Lincoln

1896 Elections

• Economic causes (depressions)• Republicans defeat William Jennings Bryan• Republicans: urban, workers, and

businesspeople, Catholics, Lutherans• Democrats: farmers, small towns, low tariffs,

and rural interests, fundamentalists• North/South became East/West

1932 Elections

• Great Depression

• Roosevelt Democrats win

• Democrats: urban workers, northern blacks, southern whites, Jewish voters

Party Decline

• Ticket splitting increasing

• Leads to divided government

• Office bloc (Massachusetts ) ballot: list candidates by office

• Party-column (Indiana) ballot: can vote straight party with one mark

Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• GENERAL:• Federal Election Commission (6 people)• Full disclosure of donors ($100 or more)• No cash contributions over $100• No foreign contributions• No limit if candidate does not accept

federal funding (up to $50,000 if he does)

Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Individual Contributions:

• No more than $2,000 per candidate per election

• An individual may not make federal political gifts exceeding $95,000 every two years, of which only $37,500 may go to candidates

Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Presidential Primaries:

• Matching funds for $250 donations or less

• Candidate must raise $5,000 in each of 20 states in $250 contributions or less to be eligible

Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Presidential Election:Major party candidates: all costs up to a

legal limit paid by the federal government (if they accept federal support)

Minor party candidates (5-25% of vote): part of costs paid by the federal government