Post on 16-Jan-2016
NOAA Research Supporting Hydrometeorological Science & Services: The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT)
Timothy SchneiderNOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Boulder, CO
December 10, 2008 1
Contact: Timothy.Schneider@noaa.gov
http://hmt.noaa.gov/
OutlineOutline
I. An Introduction to HMTII. An HMT Requirement
i. Observationsii. Modeling
III. Research to Operations Projectsi. An Underlying Principle: Atmospheric Rivers
IV. A Broader Context: Integrated Water Resource Services
December 10, 2008 2http://hmt.noaa.gov/
I. An Introduction to HMTI. An Introduction to HMT
December 10, 2008 http://hmt.noaa.gov/ 3
A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…
Will evolve as HMT evolves:• Smaller panel with national scope• Form Regional Implementation Teams
December 10, 2008 4
Building Partnerships
http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Marty RalphNOAA/HMT
HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with Regional ImplementationRegional Implementation
• Dabberdt et. al., 2005: Multifunctional Mesoscale Observing Networks, BAMS, pp. 961-982• Ralph et. al., 2005: Improving Short-Term (0–48 h) Cool-Season Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Recommendations from a USWRP Workshop, BAMS, pp. 1619-1632
Major Activity Areas
• Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)• Snow level and snow pack• Hydrologic Applications & Surface Processes• Verification & Decision Support Tools Enhancing & Accelerating Research to Operations Building partnerships
HMT WEST - Cool Season
HMT Southeast – All Season, Including Hurricane Landfall
HMT “Next” (TBD)
December 10, 2008 5http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Leve
l of e
ffort
/ a
ctivi
ty
Fiel
d W
ork
Anal
ysis
AmericanRiver
Tar-NeuseRiver Basins
Key U.S. Watershed
Fiscal Year
HMT-West
HMT-West Legacy
HMT-Southeast
HMT-SE Legacy
HMT-Next
Regions of Focus
NOAA Hydrology Program (Water Resources Data Assimilation)
NOAA Science and Technology Infusion Program (Hydrometeorology Testbed)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
West Coast/Russian River
Caljet Pacjet
Proof of concept
HMT Prototype^̂̂̂
Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline
CalWater
EFREP
December 10, 2008 6http://hmt.noaa.gov/
II. An HMT RequirementII. An HMT Requirement
December 10, 2008 http://hmt.noaa.gov/ 7
A Water Resource Driver(One Example)
Societal Need: Reservoir operators and water managers need to balance demands for flood control and water supply
They can achieve this through forecast-based operational techniques are being developed by reservoir operators
Stu Townsley:• “NOAA products are essential to Corps flood risk
reduction mission”• “The Corps supports forecast product enhancement”
Water Management Section, Sacramento District, US Army Water Management Section, Sacramento District, US Army Corps of EngineersCorps of Engineers
December 10, 2008 8http://hmt.noaa.gov/
December 10, 2008 9http://hmt.noaa.gov/
NowCast: QPE->24 hrs.(?)
QPF: 0-3 days
QPF: 3-5 days
QPF: 5-14 daysReforecasting (Hamill & Whitaker):• probabilistic• downscaling• analogues forvarious fields
Observations
Subseasonal Forecasting (Weickman & Berry):• global synoptic dynamic model (GSDM)
Assi
mila
toin
&
Dow
nsca
ling
(e.g
. PRI
SM)
HMT Requirement: Produce accurate 0-120 hour+ forecasts of extreme precipitation (NWS) to enable forecast-based water resource management
December 10, 2008 10http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Deterministic Forecasts (McGinley et. al.):• high resolution• ensembles
III. Research to Operations ProjectsIII. Research to Operations Projects
December 10, 2008 http://hmt.noaa.gov/ 11
A New Paradigm for Understanding West Coast Storms: Atmospheric Rivers
December 10, 2008 12http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Research to Operations ProjectsHigh-resolution ensemble QPF/PQPF
• Ensemble means• Probabilistic fields
Moisture Flux Tools• GPSMet Grids• Moisture Flux Verification Tool
Snow Information Tools• Gridded snow level from Q2/NMQ• Point verification; model bias correction
Atmospheric River (AR) ToolsPacific Atmospheric River Threat Indicator, “PARTI”
• Water Vapor Flux Anomaly• Observational-based AR intensity• Reforecasting products (NWP)
*HMT Mini-Workshop on FFMP; Boulder, CO, November 2008December 10, 2008 13http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Research to Operations ProjectsFFMP Alpha Tests
• Water vapor flux tools: Guidance• QPE bias correction• QPF Grids
EFREP: An HMT Legacy• Network of Snow-level Radars• Enhanced GPSMet Network• Enhanced Soil Moisture Network• Dedicated High-resolution ensemble modeling system• Decision Support Tools and Advanced Display System
(ALPS)
*HMT Mini-Workshop on FFMP; Boulder, CO, November 2008
December 10, 2008 14http://hmt.noaa.gov/
IV. A Broader Context: Integrated Water Resource Services
IV. A Broader Context: Integrated Water Resource Services
December 10, 2008 http://hmt.noaa.gov/ 15
NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services
Priority Area Task Team: FY 2009 Activities
Too Little Water: National Integrated Drought Information System Too Much Water: Hydrometeorology Testbed
• West• Carry out winter season field operations for the Carson and American River basins• Deploy advanced observational technology to support NOAA/USGS Debris Flow
Warning pilots for San Diego, Los Angeles, and Monterey Bay areas• Soil moisture demonstration for monsoon season flash flood support in San Pedro
Basin in Southern AZ• Southeast
• Conduct two workshops to identify operational needs and research priorities• Develop project implementation plan for Tar/Neuse watersheds
Water Quality (Delaware River Basin/Estuary & Great Lakes Coast Estuary River Information System (CERIS) & Coastal and Inland
Flooding Observation and Warning (CI-FLOW)
December 10, 2008 16http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Towards An Integrated Approach
NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services
Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Southeast• Deploy and install advanced observing systems• Conduct intensive observational periods• Initiate research projects• Transition tools/findings into NWS operations
Coastal-Estuary-River Information System (CERIS) Implementation (Tar/Neuse/Pamlico)
• CI-FLOW Demonstration (Sea Grant Sponsored R&D Effort)• Provide routine access to HMT Southeast data• Migrate coupled water forecasting system to NOAA operations• Develop, deliver, evaluate and enhance new products and services
THORPEX• Medium Range QPF research supporting HMT• Ensemble numerical modeling for QPF• Strengthens University partner engagement
December 10, 2008 17http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Thank You!
December 10, 2008 18
Contact: Timothy.Schneider@noaa.gov
http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Backup Slides
Demonstration GPRAsin Testbeds
“Infusion”Performance Measures
“Science”Performance Measures
“Technology”Performance Measures
Linking Science, Technology & Infusion Performance Measures to NOAA GPRA Measures
ServiceGPRA
(e.g., QPF)Performance measures for “service”
programs (e.g., LFW)
Performance measures for ST&I (an enabling program)
Today’s predictive services exist on a foundation of earlier innovation in science and technology
December 10, 2008 19http://hmt.noaa.gov/
HMT introduced a real-time, wind profiler-derived, snow-level product that is updated hourly on the internet.
This new capability prompted NWS staff at the CNRFC to ask ESRL to quantify operational snow level forecast performance.
Lundquist et al. (2008) in J. Hydrometeor. documented the relationship to snow at ground level
15% of the freezing level forecast errors were greater than +/- 1,000 ft.
When predicted snow level is below what is observed, this translates to underestimates in stream flow, e.g., a 2,000 ft snow-level error can cause a factor of 3 runoff error (White et al., J. Tech. 2002)
On Developing a Performance Measure for Snow Level Forecasts
snow
rain
Results courtesy of Dr. Allen Whiteand Dan Gottas (ESRL/PSD)
20
HMT has worked with forecast users to identify critical needs for extreme event prediction.
The existing performance measure for QPF (1 inch “threat score”) does not address this need.
17 sites were used to assess QPF performance for events exceeding 1 inch, 3 inches, and 5 inches in 24 hours, at 1, 2 and 3-day lead times.
On Developing a Performance Measure for Forecasting Extreme Precipitation
Of 16 events with >5 inches in 24 hours, the QPF bias was low
-0.71 (1-day lead)-0.60 (2-day lead)-0.51 (3-day lead)
Of 16 events with >5 inches of rain in 24 h, 2 were predicted 1 day ahead
- 5 inch POD = 0.060.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Day-1 Day-2 Day-3
QPF
Bia
s
NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center
Prototype QPF performance measures for extreme precipitation events are being developed and baselines are being created by HMT-Probability of Detecting (Forecasting) a >5 inch event-Bias of QPF in events with >5 inches rain observed
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The HMT ConceptTestbed as a Process
HMT is about “too much water”…• But is intertwined with broader water resource
management, climate & drought issuesObjectives:• To advance our understanding, monitoring and prediction
of processes leading to extreme precipitation and associated flooding
• To demonstrate and evaluate new research and technology through a national strategy employing regional testbeds
• To accelerate and enhance research to operations
December 10, 2008 22http://hmt.noaa.gov/
Marty RalphNOAA/HMT